DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Forest climate requirements change through species life history

预计全球变暖将对许多物种产生严重的负面影响。 减少这些影响的一种方法是，如果物种可以随着气候变化而改变其地理范围;如果物种可以随着温度上升而迁移到更凉爽的地方，如更高纬度或海拔，它们可能能够通过改变地方来保持相同的气候。 然而，该项目的初步研究表明，美国东部的树木物种并没有向北迁移。 该项目将测试两种替代假设来解释这一点，这两种假设都是基于年轻和成年树木在耐受各种环境条件的能力方面是否存在差异。 研究人员将扩大目前的物种分布模型，以包括更明确的影响，少年和成年人的反应，温度，并使用数据从国家森林清查和气候测量，以比较丰富的少年和成年人。预测气候变化对美国的影响森林是一个重要的问题，森林管理人员和国家作为一个整体。 该项目的成果将有助于规划维持森林生产力和替代土地用途的战略。 该项目还将加强杜克大学和美国农业部林务局之间的合作，并培养一名博士。学生和本科生。

Global warming is expected to have strongly negative effects on many species. One way these effects might be reduced is if species can change their geographical ranges as climate changes; if species can migrate to cooler places such as higher latitudes or elevations as temperature rises, they may be able to stay in the same climate by changing place. However, the preliminary research for this project shows that species of trees in the eastern U.S. have not moved northward. The project will test two alternative hypotheses to explain this, both based on whether young and adult trees differ in their ability to tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions. Researchers will expand a current species distribution model to include more explicit effects of juvenile and adult responses to temperature, and use data from a national forest inventory and climate measurements to compare the abundances of juveniles and adults.Anticipating the impacts of climate change on U.S. forests is an important issue for forest managers and for the nation as a whole. Results from this project will help plan strategies for maintaining forest productivity and for substitutions of alternative land uses. The project will also strengthen collaboration between Duke University and the USDA Forest Service, and train a Ph.D. student and an undergraduate student.