Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Service

贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:生物多样性和生态系统服务情景

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1854976
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 18万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2019-04-01 至 2022-03-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Innovative research on the complex interaction of socio-economic and global environmental trends on biodiversity and ecosystem services is needed to help develop more informative scenarios for addressing environmental and human development challenges. To overcome these challenges coupled natural-human systems approaches and analyses are needed. These provide improved scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services that couple the outputs of direct and indirect drivers such as land use, invasive species, overexploitation, biodiversity, environmental change, and pollution. The resulting models provide a methodological state-of-the art that results in more accurate quantitative assessments, better land use, and more effective ecosystem services. Employing this methodology, this research project focuses on addressing land-use changes due to abrupt climate change and their impact on species extinctions, range shifts, and phenological changes. Better knowledge in this area is critical because species loss destabilizes food webs which can negatively impact human well-being and have unexpected consequences for multiple ecosystem functions and associated services. Predicting the response of biodiversity to global change has thus become an important area of research. Present models intended to anticipate future biodiversity and ecosystem services have been criticized for ignoring inputs such as biotic interactions and links between trophic levels (e.g., predator-prey relationships). This research will use a recently created, sophisticated, biodiversity modeling code that integrates predictive biogeography, geography, biostatistics, and trophic web ecology to derive scenarios of the impact of global change on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and the provision of ecosystem services. As a test case, the program will be combined with information from stakeholders and statistics on vertebrates to generate a suite of likely models of pan-European vertebrate biodiversity as they might be influenced by climate change. Stakeholders information will be used to inform the project so methodological choices, scenarios, and indicators can be made/set in such a way that results are useful for conservation planning and decision-making support. Broader impacts of the work include international collaboration between US investigators and six European (Finnish, United Kingdom, Dutch, German, Swiss, French, and Italian) scientists and the generation of scenarios for improving policy, decision-making, and conservation planning of ecosystem services involving vertebrate species across the European continent. In this coalition of investigators, each country funds it own scientists and their part of the project. Additional broader impacts of the work include workshops and summer schools to inform stakeholder groups and train/education students and postdocs, respectively; the generation of reports for the European Commission; and public outreach through a project website linked to social media and online discussion groups and forums. For the US component of the work, there will be the training of a postdoctoral scholar in transdisciplinary, international science and teamwork.This award supports US researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 26 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum call for proposals on "Scenarios of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services". The call was a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that contribute to the development of scenarios, models, and decision-support tools for understanding and solving critical issues facing our planet. The goal of the competition was to improve and apply participatory scenario methods to enhance research relevance and its acceptance and to address gaps in methods for modelling impact drivers and policy interventions. It was also to develop and communicate levels of uncertainty associated with the models, to improve data accessibility and fill gaps in knowledge. Using this methodology, this research builds on the newly developed Generalized Joint Attribute Model, a generative model that solves two big challenges for predicting community change: (1) the ability to model responses of interdependent species across distantly related taxonomic groups and (2) the ability to link species on scales from plot-based plant abundance to individual- and plot-level herbivore damage. These advances allow modeling of the distribution of individual species and species groups across entire communities, while considering shared responses to the environment and co-variation between species. The modeling code used in the project employs a flexible hierarchical framework to model species communities responding to multiple environmental changes. In addition to the modeling, the project will work to expand the capabilities of the present modeling platform so it can address predator-prey and competition-for-prey interactions. It will also allow incorporation of prior information on expected relationships between species based on relationships within the "who eats whom" network via hierarchical implementation. Species predictions will include an analysis of uncertainties and responses to environmental parameters as well as shared species responses to the environment and interactions with other species. Model results will be used to identify areas of conservation priority by combining principles of systematic conservation planning with ensemble projections of multi-trophic communities and ecosystem services.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
需要对社会经济和全球环境趋势在生物多样性和生态系统服务方面的复杂相互作用进行创新研究,以帮助制定更多信息的情景,应对环境和人类发展挑战。为了克服这些挑战,需要结合自然-人类系统的方法和分析。这些方案提供了更好的生物多样性和生态系统服务情景,将土地使用、入侵物种、过度开发、生物多样性、环境变化和污染等直接和间接驱动因素的产出结合起来。由此产生的模型提供了一种最先进的方法,可以实现更准确的定量评估,更好的土地利用和更有效的生态系统服务。采用这种方法,本研究项目的重点是解决土地利用的变化,由于气候突变及其对物种灭绝,范围转移和物候变化的影响。更好地了解这一领域至关重要,因为物种损失破坏了食物网的稳定,可能对人类福祉产生负面影响,并对多种生态系统功能和相关服务产生意想不到的后果。因此,预测生物多样性对全球变化的响应已成为一个重要的研究领域。目前旨在预测未来生物多样性和生态系统服务的模型因忽视生物相互作用和营养级之间的联系等输入而受到批评(例如,捕食者-猎物关系)。这项研究将使用一个最近创建的,复杂的,生物多样性建模代码,集成了预测地理学,地理学,生物统计学和营养网生态学,以获得全球变化对生物多样性,生态系统功能和生态系统服务的提供的影响的情景。作为一个测试案例,该计划将与利益相关者的信息和脊椎动物的统计数据相结合,以生成一套可能受气候变化影响的泛欧脊椎动物生物多样性模型。利益相关者的信息将被用于告知项目,以便可以做出/设定方法选择,情景和指标,从而使结果对保护规划和决策支持有用。这项工作的更广泛的影响包括美国调查人员和六个欧洲(芬兰,英国,荷兰,德国,瑞士,法国和意大利)科学家之间的国际合作,以及为改善政策,决策和保护规划的方案,涉及整个欧洲大陆的脊椎动物物种的生态系统服务。在这个研究人员联盟中,每个国家都为自己的科学家和他们参与的项目提供资金。这项工作产生的其他更广泛影响包括:举办讲习班和暑期学校,分别向利益攸关方群体提供信息,培训/教育学生和博士后;为欧洲联盟委员会编写报告;通过与社交媒体和在线讨论小组和论坛链接的项目网站开展公众外联。在美国,将培养一名跨学科、国际科学和团队合作方面的博士后学者。该奖项支持美国研究人员参与一个项目,该项目是由来自23个国家的26个资助机构通过贝尔蒙特论坛征集“生物多样性和生态系统服务情景”提案而竞争性选出的。该呼吁是一项多边倡议,旨在支持有助于制定情景、模型和决策支持工具的研究项目,以了解和解决我们星球面临的关键问题。竞赛的目的是改进和应用参与式情景方法,以提高研究的相关性及其接受程度,并解决影响驱动因素和政策干预建模方法方面的差距。它还将确定和传达与模型相关的不确定性水平,以改善数据的可获得性并填补知识空白。使用这种方法,这项研究建立在新开发的广义联合属性模型,一个生成模型,解决了预测群落变化的两大挑战:(1)在遥远的相关分类群体中模拟相互依赖的物种的反应的能力,以及(2)将物种从基于地块的植物丰度到个体和地块级别的草食动物损害的能力。 这些进展允许对整个群落中单个物种和物种群的分布进行建模,同时考虑对环境的共同反应和物种之间的共变。该项目中使用的建模代码采用了灵活的分层框架来模拟物种群落对多种环境变化的响应。除了建模之外,该项目还将努力扩展目前建模平台的功能,以便它可以解决捕食者-猎物和竞争-猎物的相互作用。它还将允许通过分层实现,基于“谁吃谁”网络内的关系,纳入关于物种之间预期关系的先验信息。物种预测将包括分析不确定性和对环境参数的反应,以及共享物种对环境的反应和与其他物种的相互作用。 模型结果将被用来确定保护优先领域相结合的原则,系统的保护规划与综合预测的多营养社区和生态系统services.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并已被认为是值得的支持,通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(6)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Where Resource‐Acquisitive Species Are Located: The Role of Habitat Heterogeneity
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2020gl087626
  • 发表时间:
    2020-04
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    B. Seyednasrollah;J. Clark
  • 通讯作者:
    B. Seyednasrollah;J. Clark
Clustering Species With Residual Covariance Matrix in Joint Species Distribution Models
  • DOI:
    10.3389/fevo.2021.601384
  • 发表时间:
    2021-03-09
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3
  • 作者:
    Bystrova, Daria;Poggiato, Giovanni;Thuiller, Wilfried
  • 通讯作者:
    Thuiller, Wilfried
The emergent interactions that govern biodiversity change
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James Clark其他文献

Childhood Mistreatment, PTSD, and Substance Use in Latinx: The Role of Discrimination in an Omitted-Variable Bias
拉丁裔儿童的童年虐待、创伤后应激障碍和药物滥用:歧视在遗漏变量偏见中的作用
A Trauma-Informed Approach to Building College Students' Resilience.
建立大学生复原力的创伤知情方法。
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2018
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Karen Oehme;Ann Perko;James Clark;Elizabeth C. Ray;Laura M. Arpan;Lyndi Bradley
  • 通讯作者:
    Lyndi Bradley
Increasing multidisciplinary professionals' capacity to support neurodiverse families
提高多学科专业人员支持神经多元化家庭的能力
  • DOI:
    10.1002/dvr2.12003
  • 发表时间:
    2023
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Karen Oehme;Lyndi Bradley;Merina Cameron;Ann Perko;James Clark
  • 通讯作者:
    James Clark
Gravitational waves: search results, data analysis and parameter estimation
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s10714-014-1796-x
  • 发表时间:
    2015-01-22
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.800
  • 作者:
    Pia Astone;Alan Weinstein;Michalis Agathos;Michał Bejger;Nelson Christensen;Thomas Dent;Philip Graff;Sergey Klimenko;Giulio Mazzolo;Atsushi Nishizawa;Florent Robinet;Patricia Schmidt;Rory Smith;John Veitch;Madeline Wade;Sofiane Aoudia;Sukanta Bose;Juan Calderon Bustillo;Priscilla Canizares;Colin Capano;James Clark;Alberto Colla;Elena Cuoco;Carlos Da Silva Costa;Tito Dal Canton;Edgar Evangelista;Evan Goetz;Anuradha Gupta;Mark Hannam;David Keitel;Benjamin Lackey;Joshua Logue;Satyanarayan Mohapatra;Francesco Piergiovanni;Stephen Privitera;Reinhard Prix;Michael Pürrer;Virginia Re;Roberto Serafinelli;Leslie Wade;Linqing Wen;Karl Wette;John Whelan;C. Palomba;G. Prodi
  • 通讯作者:
    G. Prodi
Climate seasonality and predictability during the middle stone age and implications for technological diversification in early Homo sapiens
中石器时代的气候季节性和可预测性以及对早期智人技术多样化的影响
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41598-025-95573-y
  • 发表时间:
    2025-04-04
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.900
  • 作者:
    Lucy Timbrell;James Clark;Gonzalo Linares-Matás;Solène Boisard;Eslem Ben Arous;James Blinkhorn;Matt Grove;Eleanor M. L. Scerri
  • 通讯作者:
    Eleanor M. L. Scerri

James Clark的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('James Clark', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: Continent-wide forest recruitment change: the interactions between climate, habitat, and consumers
合作研究:全大陆森林补充变化:气候、栖息地和消费者之间的相互作用
  • 批准号:
    2211764
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Automated in situ Plankton Imaging and Classification System (APICS)
自动原位浮游生物成像和分类系统 (APICS)
  • 批准号:
    NE/X006018/1
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Collaborative Research: Combining NEON and remotely sensed habitats to determine climate impacts on community dynamics
合作研究:结合 NEON 和遥感栖息地来确定气候对群落动态的影响
  • 批准号:
    1754443
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Triassic-Jurassic Fossils and the Origin of the Crocodilian Skull
合作研究:三叠纪-侏罗纪化石和鳄鱼头骨的起源
  • 批准号:
    1636753
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Enzymic polymerisation, characterisation and market evaluation of a set of novel bioplastic co-polymers derived from renewable resources
一系列源自可再生资源的新型生物塑料共聚物的酶聚合、表征和市场评估
  • 批准号:
    BB/N023595/1
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Newton Fund: From orange waste to chemicals: contributions of an integrated biorefinery approach towards sustainable development in Brazil
牛顿基金:从橙色废物到化学品:综合生物精炼方法对巴西可持续发展的贡献
  • 批准号:
    EP/M028763/1
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Collaborative Research EAGER-NEON: Probabilistic Forecasting of Biodiversity Response to Intensifying Drought by Combining NEON, National Climate, Species, and Trait Data Bases
合作研究 EAGER-NEON:结合 NEON、国家气候、物种和性状数据库,对生物多样性对加剧干旱的反应进行概率预测
  • 批准号:
    1550911
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Extinction and Diversification Dynamics of Archosauria Through Early Mesozoic Climate Crises
论文研究:早期中生代气候危机中主龙类的灭绝和多样化动态
  • 批准号:
    1501489
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Sustainable polymers
可持续聚合物
  • 批准号:
    EP/L017393/1
  • 财政年份:
    2014
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
DISSERTATION RESEARCH: Forest climate requirements change through species life history
论文研究:森林气候要求随着物种生活史的变化而变化
  • 批准号:
    1307206
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Immobility in a changing climate
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:气候变化中的不动性
  • 批准号:
    2331509
  • 财政年份:
    2024
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Climate-Induced Migration in Africa and Beyond: Big Data and Predictive Analytics
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:非洲及其他地区气候引起的移民:大数据和预测分析
  • 批准号:
    2310908
  • 财政年份:
    2023
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Digital infrastructure for sustainable consumption
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:可持续消费的数字基础设施
  • 批准号:
    2323490
  • 财政年份:
    2023
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
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    Continuing Grant
Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Climate extremes and migration in Madagascar: Towards an integrated monitoring and modeling for mitigation and adaptation
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:马达加斯加的极端气候和移民:迈向缓解和适应的综合监测和建模
  • 批准号:
    2318924
  • 财政年份:
    2023
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: JUST GROW: Co-designing justice-centric indicators and governance principles to intensify urban agriculture sustainably and equitably
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:JUST GROW:共同设计以正义为中心的指标和治理原则,以可持续和公平地强化城市农业
  • 批准号:
    2319129
  • 财政年份:
    2023
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    $ 18万
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    Continuing Grant
Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Co-Creating Sustainable Transformations of Food Supply Chains through Cooperative Business Models and Governance
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:通过合作商业模式和治理共同创造食品供应链的可持续转型
  • 批准号:
    2321087
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    2023
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: The Role of Supermarkets as Key Agents in Systems of Sustainable Consumption and Production
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:超市作为可持续消费和生产系统中关键主体的作用
  • 批准号:
    2318211
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    2023
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Developing REsilient African cities and their urban environMent facing the pro-vision of essential urban SDGs (DREAMS)
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:面向基本城市可持续发展目标 (DREAMS) 的规定,发展具有复原力的非洲城市及其城市环境
  • 批准号:
    2150932
  • 财政年份:
    2022
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Stakeholder-supported decision making for sustainable conjunctive management of soil and groundwater (INCLUSIVE)
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:利益相关者支持的土壤和地下水可持续联合管理决策(包容性)
  • 批准号:
    2233458
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    2022
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    $ 18万
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Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Resilient societies through smart-city technology; Assessing earthquake risk in ultra-high resolution
贝尔蒙特论坛合作研究:通过智慧城市技术打造具有复原力的社会;
  • 批准号:
    2025310
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 18万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
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