Collaborative Research: Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting

合作研究：日光层空间天气预报综合实时建模系统

• 批准号: 1322826
• 负责人: Janet Luhmann
• 金额: $ 17.49万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-04-15 至 2018-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1322826&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Integrated; Real; Time

This grant is for partial support of a project selected and funded under the 2012 NASA-NSF partnership for Space Weather Modeling Collaborations. It is a collaborative effort, led by George Mason University and with participation also from University of Maryland and University of California-Berkeley and with further collaboration also with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The objective is to bring together multiple mature physics-based modules to develop an improved integrated real-time modeling system for heliospheric space weather research and forecasting. It builds on an existing capability that combines a numerical MHD model for the heliosphere, an empirical model for the background solar wind, and a semi-analytic model for the near-Sun disturbances. Ignoring the specifics of a magnetic eruption process at the Sun, this practical approach uses observations of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) to determine its geometric and kinematic representation and launches a corresponding hydrodynamic cloud into the heliospheric computational domain, where it evolves as it interacts with the background solar wind. Improvements to the existing model suite include simulation of the evolving background solar wind, launching more realistic geometric shapes of CMEs into the model, enabling ensemble forecasting, and performing on-the-fly evaluation of the simulated scenarios. In addition, new modules will be included to model outstanding phenomena and effects. The most critical of these are: the prediction of solar energetic particles (SEPs) events caused by solar flares (impulsive events) and interplanetary shocks (gradual events) at planets and spacecraft, and the prediction of southward interplanetary magnetic field events at Earth. Finally, the project will develop additional model outputs, such as synthetic imaging for direct comparison with remote observations, and will enhance the flexibility of the system to allow for the inclusion of model components and initializations developed by others.When completed, the enhanced and improved heliospheric model suite will be delivered to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for access by the scientific community and eventual transition to use for operational space weather forecasting. The results of this effort will help provide accurate predictions for the arrival of CME and SEP events at Earth and other locations in the solar system, which is a high priority national space weather need. Educational components of the project include the participation of postdocs and graduate students.

这笔赠款用于部分支持2012年NASA-NSF空间气象建模合作伙伴关系下选定和资助的项目。 这是一项合作努力，由乔治梅森大学牵头，马里兰州大学和加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校也参与其中，并与美国航天局戈达德空间飞行中心进一步合作。 目的是将多个成熟的物理学模块结合起来，开发一个改进的综合实时建模系统，用于日光层空间天气研究和预报。 它建立在现有的能力，结合数值MHD模型的日光层，经验模型的背景太阳风，和半解析模型的近太阳扰动。忽略了在太阳的磁喷发过程的细节，这种实用的方法使用观测结果的日冕物质抛射（CME），以确定其几何和运动学的表示，并推出相应的流体动力云到日光层计算域，在那里它演变，因为它与背景太阳风相互作用。对现有模型套件的改进包括模拟不断变化的背景太阳风，将更逼真的CME几何形状引入模型，实现集合预报，以及对模拟情景进行实时评估。 此外，还将包括新的模块，以模拟突出的现象和影响。其中最关键的是：预测太阳耀斑（脉冲事件）和行星和航天器的行星际冲击（渐进事件）引起的太阳高能粒子（SEP）事件，以及预测地球上向南的行星际磁场事件。最后，该项目将开发更多的模型输出，如用于与远程观测直接比较的合成成像，并将提高系统的灵活性，以便纳入其他方面开发的模型组件和初始化。经过增强和改进的日光层模型套件将交付给社区协调建模中心（CCMC）供科学界使用，并最终过渡到用于业务空间气象预报。 这项工作的结果将有助于准确预测日冕物质抛射和太阳能抛射事件到达地球和太阳系其他地点的情况，这是国家空间气象的一项高度优先需要。该项目的教育部分包括博士后和研究生的参与。