Coastal SEES (Track 2), Collaborative: Toward Sustainable Urban Estuaries in the Anthropocene

沿海 SEES（轨道 2），协作：迈向人类世的可持续城市河口

• 批准号: 1325466
• 负责人: Tracy Quirk
• 金额: $ 35.6万
• 依托单位: Academy of Natural Sciences Philadelphia
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-09-01 至 2015-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1325466&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; SEES; Track; Collaborative; Toward

This project will evaluate how anthropogenic changes in estuarine morphology affect sediment fluxes in urban estuaries, and how consequent shifts in the physical regime affect estuarine sustainability, based on a combination of environmental and socio-economic factors. Geophysical models of hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphodynamics will be combined with economic models that value ecosystem services to examine two study sites, the Delaware and Hudson-Raritan estuary systems. The work will incorporate field observations, historical analysis, high-resolution physical modeling, morphodynamic modeling, and coupled modeling of the human-natural system. Studies of estuarine physical processes will lead to the application of dynamical models that represent the hydrodynamics and recent morphodynamics in these estuaries, with particular emphasis on coupled estuary-wetland responses to channel deepening and shoreline modifications. Socio-economic analyses will provide a quantification of the ecosystem services under past, present, and future states of the natural-human system. The culmination of the research will be a coupled model of the natural-human state trajectory, which quantifies the feedback between human actions to alter the estuarine regime, the response of the physical system, and the changes in values of the altered ecosystem services. The proposed work will define the relevant and appropriate natural and human scales for sustainable management of an urban estuary and identify a decision framework that permits the assessment of socio-economic values across generations such that alternative predictive outcomes can be compared and ordered in terms of their sustainability. The unique contribution of this research is the quantitative integration of advanced analysis and modeling of physical processes in estuaries with socio-economic analyses, in order to predict the trajectory of the coupled human-natural system. Assessment of sustainability in estuaries requires this type of coupled analysis because of the sensitivity of the physical regime to human impacts and because of the critical human dimension of ecosystem services in estuaries. Important intellectual advances will also occur within the sub-disciplines. The morphological model of the estuary and surrounding wetlands will provide novel coupling of three-dimensional estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment transport with system-scale morphodynamics. The socio-economic analysis will analyze the linkage between policy, economics and ecosystem services within the context of the coupled human-natural regime.This research will develop a framework for decision-making leading to the sustainable management of estuaries. The models will provide prototypes for future decision-making tools for planning of urban estuarine economic development, environmental management, and risk management. Engagement with policy professionals at the municipal, regional, state and federal levels with responsibility for management of the Hudson-Raritan and Delaware estuarine resources will advance the use of system-scale integrated analysis of the human-natural system. Communication of methodologies to the broader community is intended to shape future analysis and decision-making concerning estuarine sustainability throughout the U.S. and worldwide. The research program provides professional development for six graduate students, one post-doctoral investigator, and undergraduates through the institutional research experience for undergraduates (REU) programs. The diverse-yet-integrated project team will foster strong interdisciplinary collaborations and educational experiences that will prepare the students for future careers in sustainability science.This project is supported under NSF's Coastal SEES (Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability) program.

该项目将评估河口形态的人为变化如何影响城市河口的沉积物通量，以及随之而来的物理制度的变化如何影响河口的可持续性，基于环境和社会经济因素的组合。地球物理模型的流体动力学，沉积物输运和形态动力学将结合经济模型，价值生态系统服务，以检查两个研究地点，特拉华州和哈德逊-拉里坦河口系统。这项工作将结合实地观察，历史分析，高分辨率的物理建模，形态动力学建模，以及人与自然系统的耦合建模。河口的物理过程的研究将导致应用的动力学模型，代表这些河口的流体动力学和最近的形态动力学，特别强调耦合河口湿地通道加深和海岸线修改的反应。社会经济分析将量化自然-人类系统过去、现在和未来状态下的生态系统服务。研究的高潮将是自然-人类状态轨迹的耦合模型，该模型量化了人类改变河口制度的行动之间的反馈，物理系统的响应以及改变的生态系统服务价值的变化。拟议的工作将确定相关的和适当的自然和人类规模的可持续管理的城市河口，并确定一个决策框架，允许跨代的社会经济价值评估，使替代预测结果可以进行比较，并在其可持续性方面进行排序。这项研究的独特贡献是定量集成先进的分析和建模的物理过程在河口与社会经济分析，以预测耦合的人类-自然系统的轨迹。河口的可持续性评估需要这种类型的耦合分析，因为敏感的物理制度，人类的影响，因为关键的人类层面的生态系统服务的河口。重要的知识进步也将发生在子学科。河口及周边湿地的形态模型将为三维河口水动力学和泥沙输移与系统尺度形态动力学的耦合提供新的思路。社会经济分析将分析政策、经济和生态系统服务之间的联系，在人-自然耦合的情况下，这项研究将制定一个决策框架，以实现河口的可持续管理。这些模型将为未来城市河口经济发展规划、环境管理和风险管理的决策工具提供原型。与负责管理哈德逊-拉里坦和特拉华州河口资源的市政、地区、州和联邦各级政策专业人员的接触将促进对人类-自然系统进行系统规模综合分析。向更广泛的社区传达方法的目的是塑造未来关于美国和世界各地河口可持续性的分析和决策。该研究计划通过本科生（REU）计划的机构研究经验为六名研究生，一名博士后研究员和本科生提供专业发展。多样化而又融合的项目团队将促进强有力的跨学科合作和教育经验，为学生未来在可持续发展科学领域的职业生涯做好准备。该项目由NSF的沿海SEES（科学，工程和可持续发展教育）计划支持。