Collaborative Research: Coastal SEES (Track 1): Chesapeake Bay Sustainability: Implications of changing climate and shifting management objectives

该项目旨在开发一个先进的建模框架，该框架集成了模拟和选择支持可持续系统的气候变化适应战略所需的物理、生物地球化学和人类成分。它融合了精细分辨率的水动力学模型和能够模拟社会经济相互作用的更大范围的全生态系统模型，以表征系统中的人与自然的联系。这项研究特别使用了旨在减少风暴潮的切萨皮克湾假设性改变，以检查对河口动态、渔业生产和潜在洪水风险的影响，重点是对人类系统的反馈。该项目的概念框架是检查河口系统改变的物理、化学和生物后果，旨在减少相连的人类系统中的风险。拟议工作的重点是模拟干预？S对渔业生产的影响和潜在的洪水风险，两者都反馈到人类系统。这项工作直接涉及通过河口系统的物理改变来减轻风险的问题，可能会扰乱目前维持水质和渔业生产的努力。为政策和管理决策提供信息将需要这类增强的建模工具和对系统响应的扩展理解。该项目将在基本建模工作和随后的政策指导转换方面具有互补优势的研究人员聚集在一起。该项目将为两名高级研究生提供关于可持续发展问题跨学科研究的培训，并将为在VIMS沿海资源管理中心和William&Amp；Mary海岸政策法律诊所工作的其他研究生提供课程材料。由于该项目将由VIMS的海岸资源管理中心管理，因此开发的产品和见解将与切萨皮克湾的海岸管理和政策社区建立独特的联系。该项目的成果将被纳入该中心向地方和州政府人员提供的正式指导、外展教育计划和在线数据，从而确保将项目产品直接转化为管理和政策。此外，由于这些主题目前引起了各种公共和私人实体的极大兴趣，因此有机会举办外展教育课程，以增进广泛的利益相关者对可持续发展概念、政策选择和管理挑战的理解，这些利益相关者包括州立法者、非政府组织工作人员和私人公民。

This project aims to develop an advanced modeling framework that integrates the physical, biogeochemical, and human components needed to simulate and select climate change adaptation strategies that will support a sustainable system. It merges a fine resolution hydrodynamic model with a broader-scale whole-ecosystem model that is capable of simulating socioeconomic interactions to characterize human-natural linkages in the system. The research specifically uses hypothetical alterations to the Chesapeake Bay designed to reduce storm surge to examine the impacts on estuarine dynamics, fisheries production, and potential flooding risks, with emphasis on feedbacks to the human system.The conceptual framework for the project is an examination of the physical, chemical, and biological consequences of an alteration of the estuarine system designed to reduce risks in the linked human system. The focus of the proposed work is simulation of the intervention?s impacts on fisheries production and potential flooding risks, both feedbacks to the human system. This work directly addresses the issue of risk mitigation through physical alterations of estuarine systems potentially confounding current efforts to sustain water quality and fisheries production. Informing the policy and management decisions will require this type of enhanced modeling tools and expanded understanding of system responses.This project brings together researchers with complementary strengths in the essential modeling efforts and the subsequent translation to policy guidance. The project will provide two senior graduate students training in interdisciplinary research on issues of sustainability, and it will provide course materials for other graduate students working in the Center for Coastal Resources Management at VIMS and the Coastal Policy Law Clinic at William & Mary. Because the project will be managed from the Center for Coastal Resources Management at VIMS, the products and insights developed will have a unique connection to the coastal management and policy communities in Chesapeake Bay. The results of this project will be incorporated into the formal guidance, the outreach education programs, and the online data provided to local and state government personnel by the Center, thus ensuring the direct translation of project products to management and policy. In addition, because these topics are currently of great interest to a wide variety of public and private entities, there are opportunities for outreach education sessions to increase the understanding of sustainability concepts, policy options, and management challenges across a wide spectrum of stakeholders including state legislators, NGO staffs, and private citizensThis project is supported under NSF's Coastal SEES (Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability) program.