Physical Processes Governing Energy and Momentum Flows on Multiple Scales in Near-Earth Space Using a First-principles-based Data Assimilation System (DAS) for the Global Ionospher

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This grant is for partial support of a project selected and funded under the 2012 NASA-NSF partnership for Space Weather Modeling Collaborations. It is a collaborative effort, led by Utah State University and with participation also from University of Southern California and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The objective is to first combine multiple existing first principles ionospheric data assimilation models to develop a modular Data Assimilation System (DAS) capable of modeling the global Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (ITE). Next, a Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) will be constructed for modeling the I-T-E system that incorporates the existing data assimilation models with different physics, numerics, and initial conditions. MEPS will allow ensemble modeling with different data assimilation models for specific science studies and applications. MEPS will be modular so that it can be coupled to lower atmosphere (weather) models and to first-principles-based magnetosphere models. Hence, MEPS can take account of upward propagating tides, planetary waves, and gravity waves. Since MEPS reconstructions will be consistent with the available I-T-E measurements, self-consistent ion outflows, convection E-fields, precipitation, currents, etc., can be provided to magnetosphere models for inputs and/or validation. The modular architecture also means that data assimilation models (ionosphere, thermosphere, electrodynamics) developed by others can be easily incorporated in MEPS. In addition, MEPS will include different data assimilation models for specific parts of the near-Earth space domain, which will allow ensemble modeling of specific events with several different data assimilation models. The MEPS data assimilation models will be made available to the scientific community so that others can study the I-T-E system with state-of-the-art data assimilation models. The use of these models will lead to a paradigm shift in how basic physical processes are studied in near-Earth space.When completed, the MEPS model (with component data assimilation models; ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and mid-low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics) will be delivered to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) for access by the scientific community and eventual transition to use for operational space weather forecasting. The results of this effort will help provide a several hour predictive capability for the ITE that is a high priority national space weather need. Graduate students at USU will participate in the project