Collaborative Research: The dynamics of Mauna Loa's and Kilauea's magmatic systems from physics-based modeling

火山之间的动态联系对长期和短期喷发预测具有重要意义。尽管这种联系被认为存在于一些火山系统中，但它仍然存在争议，其根本机制也是如此。最近，基拉韦厄火山和莫纳罗亚火山动力耦合的可能性被提出，这是两座火山下面的软流层熔融带内压力扩散的结果，两座火山都从软流圈熔融带获得熔体，尽管来自不同的部分。为了验证这一假设，我们建议建立一个地下岩浆流动和聚集、岩浆脱气和火山变形相结合的数值模型。岩浆流动模型将基于两相流动理论，从现有的岩浆挥发分溶解度和扩散率公式中纳入岩浆脱气。火山变形将通过质量守恒将流动模型与成熟的运动变形模型相耦合来模拟。同样，岩浆成分的变化将从物质平衡的考虑进行估计。对地表变形、气体排放和岩浆成分变化的观察将限制对每座火山的依赖时间的岩浆供应。模型结果将被用来测试相关活动和评估动力耦合的潜在机制。除了检验这一耦合假说之外，该模型还可以用来研究每座火山的岩浆供应、储存和喷发活动之间的相互作用，特别是在基拉韦厄火山，那里的观测空间和时间频率都很高。为了演示这种建议的建模方法的能力，我们将对模型将包括的未知参数和所有可用的约束进行探索。我们将建立现有的大地测量、地震、地球化学和气体观测数据库，评估其完整性和可靠性，确定模型的不确定性和权衡，评估解决方案的唯一性和反问题的统计数据。2013年是夏威夷火山观测站成立一百周年，该观测站位于地球上最活跃的基拉韦厄火山和地球上最大的火山莫纳罗亚附近。这两座火山也是监测时间最长和监测最好的两座火山，有助于我们了解地幔的结构和动力学、火山岛链的演化以及玄武岩火山活动。它们被认为是热点火山活动的典型表现，是由浮力上升的地幔热柱在夏威夷下方数百公里深处经历部分融化引起的。这种熔体的向上渗流和堆积导致空间集中的流动穿过夏威夷岩石圈，进入位于每座火山下方几公里深的岩浆室，火山喷发由此而来。这两座火山都表现出复杂的活动模式，包括沿着位于每座大楼下方的大型断裂面移动，有可能发生大地震、海啸和触发新的喷发。有人认为，深部岩浆聚集本身可能有利于这些断层上的运动。这些过程和反馈是否仅限于一座火山，或者它们是否也可能影响到邻近的火山，目前仍不确定。未来的喷发，特别是来自莫纳罗亚的喷发，有可能直接影响夏威夷岛的主要人口中心，而且更好地了解火山内部的工作过程，以及之间的任何动态联系，都将通过增加对火山和火山危险的了解，从而有利于公共安全。该项目是夏威夷大学、莱斯大学和美国地质调查局之间的合作项目，旨在整合一系列不同类型的观测，因此将影响许多不同的领域，包括大地测量学、地震学和地球化学。此外，为了最大限度地扩大对公众和教育的影响，我们将与卡皮奥拉尼社区学院的新媒体艺术课程合作。

Dynamic linkage between volcanoes has implications for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Although such linkage has been suggested to exist for some volcanic systems it remains controversial, as does the underlying mechanism. Recently, the possibility of dynamical coupling of Kilauea and Mauna Loa has been proposed as a consequence of pressure diffusion within an asthenospheric melt zone that underlies both volcanoes, and from which each volcano is supplied with melt, albeit from different parts of it. To test this hypothesis, we propose to construct a numerical model of combined subsurface magma flow and accumulation, magma degassing and volcano deformation. The magma flow model will be based on two-phase flow theory, with magma degassing incorporated from existing solubility and diffusivity formulations for magmatic volatiles. Volcano deformation will be modeled by coupling the flow model with well-established kinematic deformation models through mass conservation. Similarly, changes in magma composition will be estimated from mass balance considerations. Observations of surface deformation, gas emissions and changes in magma composition will constrain the time-dependent magma supply to each volcano. Model results will be used to test for correlative activity and assess potential mechanisms for dynamical coupling. In addition to testing this coupling hypothesis, the model can be used to interrogate the interplay between magma supply, storage and eruptive activity at each volcano, in particular at Kilauea, where the spatial and temporal frequencies of observations are high. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of this proposed modeling approach we will perform an exploration of the unknown parameters the model will include and all the available constraints. We will establish databases of the available geodetic, seismic, geochemical and gas observations, evaluate their completeness and reliability, and ascertain the model uncertainties and trade-offs, assessing the uniqueness of solutions and the statistics of the inverse problem.2013 marked the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory located on Kilauea, Earth's most active, and near Mauna Loa, Earth's largest volcano. Both volcanoes are also two of the best and longest monitored volcanoes and have been instrumental to our understanding of the structure and dynamics of the Earth's mantle, the evolution of volcanic island chains, as well as basaltic volcanism in general. They are thought to be the archetypical manifestations of hot-spot volcanism, caused by a buoyantly upwelling mantle plume that undergoes partial melting at a few hundred kilometers depth beneath Hawaii. Upward percolation and accumulation of this melt results in spatially focused flow through the Hawaiian lithosphere, into magma chambers that are located at a few kilometers depth beneath each volcano, and from which volcanic eruptions are fed. Both volcanoes exhibit complex patterns of activity, including movement along large fault planes that underlie portions of each edifice, with the potential for large earthquakes, tsunamis and triggering of new eruptions. It has been suggested that magma accumulation at depth may itself facilitate movement on these faults. Whether these processes and feedbacks are confined to a single volcano or whether they may also affect the neighboring volcano remains uncertain. Future eruptions, especially from Mauna Loa, have significant potential to directly impact the main populations centers on the island of Hawaii, and an improved understanding of the processes at work within the volcanoes, and any dynamic link between then will benefit public safety through increased understanding of volcanoes and volcanic hazards. This project, which represents a collaborative effort between the University of Hawaii, Rice University and the US Geological Survey, is aimed at integrating a range of different types of observation and will, therefore, impact a number of different fields, including geodesy, seismology and geochemistry. Moreover, to maximize the public and educational impact, we will partner with New Media Arts classes from Kapiolani Community College.