Collaborative Research: The dynamics of Mauna Loa's and Kilauea's magmatic systems from physics-based modeling

合作研究：基于物理建模的莫纳罗亚火山和基拉韦厄火山岩浆系统的动力学

• 批准号: 1331125
• 负责人: James Foster
• 金额: $ 8.63万
• 依托单位: University of Hawaii
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331125&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; dynamics; Mauna; Loa

Dynamic linkage between volcanoes has implications for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Although such linkage has been suggested to exist for some volcanic systems it remains controversial, as does the underlying mechanism. Recently, the possibility of dynamical coupling of Kilauea and Mauna Loa has been proposed as a consequence of pressure diffusion within an asthenospheric melt zone that underlies both volcanoes, and from which each volcano is supplied with melt, albeit from different parts of it. To test this hypothesis, we propose to construct a numerical model of combined subsurface magma flow and accumulation, magma degassing and volcano deformation. The magma flow model will be based on two-phase flow theory, with magma degassing incorporated from existing solubility and diffusivity formulations for magmatic volatiles. Volcano deformation will be modeled by coupling the flow model with well-established kinematic deformation models through mass conservation. Similarly, changes in magma composition will be estimated from mass balance considerations. Observations of surface deformation, gas emissions and changes in magma composition will constrain the time-dependent magma supply to each volcano. Model results will be used to test for correlative activity and assess potential mechanisms for dynamical coupling. In addition to testing this coupling hypothesis, the model can be used to interrogate the interplay between magma supply, storage and eruptive activity at each volcano, in particular at Kilauea, where the spatial and temporal frequencies of observations are high. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of this proposed modeling approach we will perform an exploration of the unknown parameters the model will include and all the available constraints. We will establish databases of the available geodetic, seismic, geochemical and gas observations, evaluate their completeness and reliability, and ascertain the model uncertainties and trade-offs, assessing the uniqueness of solutions and the statistics of the inverse problem.2013 marked the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory located on Kilauea, Earth's most active, and near Mauna Loa, Earth's largest volcano. Both volcanoes are also two of the best and longest monitored volcanoes and have been instrumental to our understanding of the structure and dynamics of the Earth's mantle, the evolution of volcanic island chains, as well as basaltic volcanism in general. They are thought to be the archetypical manifestations of hot-spot volcanism, caused by a buoyantly upwelling mantle plume that undergoes partial melting at a few hundred kilometers depth beneath Hawaii. Upward percolation and accumulation of this melt results in spatially focused flow through the Hawaiian lithosphere, into magma chambers that are located at a few kilometers depth beneath each volcano, and from which volcanic eruptions are fed. Both volcanoes exhibit complex patterns of activity, including movement along large fault planes that underlie portions of each edifice, with the potential for large earthquakes, tsunamis and triggering of new eruptions. It has been suggested that magma accumulation at depth may itself facilitate movement on these faults. Whether these processes and feedbacks are confined to a single volcano or whether they may also affect the neighboring volcano remains uncertain. Future eruptions, especially from Mauna Loa, have significant potential to directly impact the main populations centers on the island of Hawaii, and an improved understanding of the processes at work within the volcanoes, and any dynamic link between then will benefit public safety through increased understanding of volcanoes and volcanic hazards. This project, which represents a collaborative effort between the University of Hawaii, Rice University and the US Geological Survey, is aimed at integrating a range of different types of observation and will, therefore, impact a number of different fields, including geodesy, seismology and geochemistry. Moreover, to maximize the public and educational impact, we will partner with New Media Arts classes from Kapiolani Community College.

火山之间的动态连接对长期和短期喷发预测具有影响。尽管已经建议某些火山系统存在这种联系，但仍然存在争议，其基本机制也是如此。最近，由于在动态层融化区域内的压力扩散是基于火山的构成的，因此提出了将基拉韦阿和mauna loa动态耦合的可能性，并从中为每个火山提供了熔体，尽管它来自不同部分。为了检验这一假设，我们建议构建一个组合地下岩浆流和积累，岩浆脱气和火山变形的数值模型。岩浆流模型将基于两相流理论，岩浆脱气来自现有的溶解度和岩浆挥发性的扩散率公式。火山变形将通过通过质量保护将流模型与公认的运动学变形模型耦合来建模。同样，岩浆成分的变化将从质量平衡的注意事项中估算出来。表面变形，气体排放和岩浆成分变化的观察将限制每个火山的时间依赖性岩浆供应。模型结果将用于测试相关活性并评估动态耦合的潜在机制。除了测试该耦合假设外，该模型还可以用于询问每个火山的岩浆供应，储存和喷发活动之间的相互作用，尤其是在基拉韦阿（Kilauea），在那里观测的空间和时间频率很高。为了证明这种提出的建模方法的功能，我们将对模型将包含的未知参数以及所有可用约束进行探索。我们将建立可用的地震，地震，地球化学和气体观察的数据库，评估它们的完整性和可靠性，并确定模型的不确定性和权衡，评估解决方案的独特性以及反相反问题的统计数据。2013年，夏威夷火山的一百纪念日标志着夏威夷火山的一百纪念日，近距离地球上的Eartain saro saro saro saro saro anda和saino saro saro andaiment and saro sivisive and aivest of arra and saro。这两个火山也是最佳和最长的监测火山之一，并且对我们对地球地幔的结构和动力学的理解，火山岛链的演变以及玄武岩火山作用。人们认为它们是热点火山症的典型表现，是由浮动的地幔羽流引起的，该羽流在夏威夷下方几百公里深度下进行部分融化。这种熔体的向上渗透和积累导致空间集中的流穿过夏威夷岩石圈，进入岩浆腔室，岩浆腔室位于每个火山下几公里的深度，并从中喂食火山喷发。这两个火山都表现出复杂的活动模式，包括沿着每个大厦部分的大断层平面运动，并可能发生大地震，海啸和新爆发的触发。有人提出，岩浆在深度上的积累本身可能有助于这些断层的运动。这些过程和反馈是否仅限于单个火山，还是可能影响邻近火山的火山。未来的爆发，尤其是来自Mauna LOA的爆发，具有直接影响夏威夷岛的主要人口中心的巨大潜力，并且对火山内部工作过程的了解得到了改进，当时的任何动态联系都将通过对火山和火山危害的了解来增强公共安全。该项目代表了夏威夷大学，莱斯大学和美国地质调查局之间的合作努力，旨在整合一系列不同类型的观察，因此将影响许多不同领域，包括地质，地震学和地球化学。此外，为了最大程度地利用公众和教育影响，我们将与卡皮奥拉尼社区学院的新媒体艺术课程合作。