AGS-PRF: Role of Land-atmosphere Processes in Climate Models' Projections of the West African Monsoon

该项目的目标是促进对造成气候模式中西非季风预测演变不确定性的物理过程的理解。利用最近的耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第五阶段的模拟，本项目提出了一个假设，即气候模式中陆-气过程模拟的差异在WAM预测跨模式传播中发挥作用。这一活动的预期成果包括：（一）评价最新一代气候模式在气候变化模拟中的WAM演变;（二）描述这些模式中模拟的陆地-大气过程的特征;（三）估计这些过程的模式间变异性如何与WAM预测的扩散相关。无论是否发现模拟的陆-气过程可以解释气候模式中WAM预测的分散性，该项目都将加深对模式如何模拟基本的陆-气耦合过程以及CMIP 5集合中这些过程的不确定性的理解。

The goal of this project is to advance understanding of the physical processes responsible for uncertainties in the projected evolution of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) in climate models. Making use of simulations from the recent fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this project proposes to explore the hypothesis that differences in the simulation of land-atmosphere processes in climate models play a role in the spread of WAM projections across models. Expected outcomes of this activity include: (i) an evaluation of WAM evolution in climate change simulations from the latest generation of climate models; (ii) a characterization of simulated land-atmosphere processes in these models; and (iii) an estimation of how inter-model variability with respect to these processes relates to the spread in WAM projections. Regardless of whether simulated land-atmosphere processes are found to explain the scatter in WAM projections in climate models, this project will lead to increased understanding of how models simulate fundamental coupled land-atmosphere processes as well as the uncertainty of such processes across the CMIP5 ensemble.