OCE-PRF: Quantifying the Chukchi Sea's role in modulating present and future changes of Pacific waters in the Arctic

该奖项全部或部分由2021年美国救援计划法案（公法117-2）资助。随着海洋和大气变暖以及海冰萎缩，北极正在迅速变化。这些变化影响全球气候、区域生态系统、土著社区以及地缘政治和经济决策。阿拉斯加、楚科奇海和博福特海的海冰损失最大。这一损失的大部分是由于该地区海洋变暖造成的。未来海冰的损失将取决于楚科奇海和博福特海如何获得热量。这项工作的目的是创建一个详细的会计如何通过楚科奇海从太平洋之前，被释放到大气中或进入博福特海。这项工作将使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的最先进的气候模型来研究该地区当前和未来的热量路径。这项工作的科学影响是为楚科奇海和博福特海如何获得并将继续获得热量提供重要的见解。此外，这项工作还将有助于改善未来对北极海冰和生态系统状况的预测，为公众、政策制定者和工业界提供重要信息。楚科奇海是北极的一个重要边缘海，变暖的太平洋沃茨在俯冲到博福特环流盐跃层以下之前通过表面通量进行了改变。虽然它是了解当前气候和预测未来变化的一个至关重要的地区，但它在调节太平洋水温方面的确切作用仍不清楚。该提案的科学目标是使用楚科奇海的封闭热收支来确定太平洋水热的命运，确定在热收支项及其变化时间尺度之间建立平衡的物理过程，并量化海冰在楚科奇海热收支中的作用。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）耦合气候模型，CM4.0，将被用来产生封闭的平均年和季节的楚科奇海热收支。这些平均热预算将提供一个框架，了解在过去和未来的模拟和指导调查的物理过程负责调制条款的时间尺度范围内，包括海洋热浪对海洋热传输通过白令海峡的影响，个别热预算条款的时间变化。通过对CM4.0海冰模式的分析，提出了海冰范围和平流对楚科奇海热量收支的作用。这项工作的科学影响是为楚科奇海和博福特海如何获得并将继续获得热量提供重要的见解。此外，这项工作还将有助于改善对北极海冰和生态系统状况的未来预测，为公众、政策制定者和行业提供重要信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The Arctic is changing quickly as the ocean and atmosphere warm and sea ice shrinks. These changes impact the global climate, regional ecosystems, native communities, and geopolitical and economic decision-making. The sea ice loss has been greatest in the seas off the coast of Alaska, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The majority of this loss is due to warming oceans in the region. Future sea ice loss will depend on how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas gain heat. This work aims to create a detailed accounting of how heat moves through the Chukchi Sea from the Pacific Ocean before either being released to the atmosphere or entering into the Beaufort Sea. This work will use state-of-the-art climate models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate both the current and future pathways of heat through this region. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry. The Chukchi Sea is a key marginal sea in the Arctic where warming Pacific Waters are modified through surface fluxes before subducting below the Beaufort Gyre halocline. While a critically important region for understanding current climate and predicting future changes, it's exact role in modulating Pacific Water heat remains unclear. The scientific goals of this proposal are to determine the fate of Pacific Water heat using a closed heat budget of the Chukchi Sea, identify the physical processes that set the balance between heat budget terms and their time scales of variability, and quantify the role of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea's heat budget. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model, CM4.0, will be used to produce closed mean annual and seasonal heat budgets of the Chukchi Sea. These mean heat budgets will provide a framework for understanding the temporal variability of individual heat budget terms in past and future simulations and guide investigation into the physical processes responsible for modulating terms on a range of time scales, including the influence of Marine Heat Waves on ocean heat transport through the Bering Strait. Through analysis of CM4.0’s sea ice model, I propose to determine the role of sea ice extent and advection on the surface flux component of the Chukchi Sea heat budget. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.