OCE-PRF: Quantifying the Chukchi Sea's role in modulating present and future changes of Pacific waters in the Arctic

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This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The Arctic is changing quickly as the ocean and atmosphere warm and sea ice shrinks. These changes impact the global climate, regional ecosystems, native communities, and geopolitical and economic decision-making. The sea ice loss has been greatest in the seas off the coast of Alaska, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The majority of this loss is due to warming oceans in the region. Future sea ice loss will depend on how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas gain heat. This work aims to create a detailed accounting of how heat moves through the Chukchi Sea from the Pacific Ocean before either being released to the atmosphere or entering into the Beaufort Sea. This work will use state-of-the-art climate models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate both the current and future pathways of heat through this region. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry. The Chukchi Sea is a key marginal sea in the Arctic where warming Pacific Waters are modified through surface fluxes before subducting below the Beaufort Gyre halocline. While a critically important region for understanding current climate and predicting future changes, it's exact role in modulating Pacific Water heat remains unclear. The scientific goals of this proposal are to determine the fate of Pacific Water heat using a closed heat budget of the Chukchi Sea, identify the physical processes that set the balance between heat budget terms and their time scales of variability, and quantify the role of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea's heat budget. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model, CM4.0, will be used to produce closed mean annual and seasonal heat budgets of the Chukchi Sea. These mean heat budgets will provide a framework for understanding the temporal variability of individual heat budget terms in past and future simulations and guide investigation into the physical processes responsible for modulating terms on a range of time scales, including the influence of Marine Heat Waves on ocean heat transport through the Bering Strait. Through analysis of CM4.0’s sea ice model, I propose to determine the role of sea ice extent and advection on the surface flux component of the Chukchi Sea heat budget. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.