Consideration, Design, and Energy Policy

这个项目的目标是模拟消费者如何在一个包括制造商和政府政策的世界里做出购买决定。该模型是一种工程设计工具，将帮助汽车设计师在社会、公共和物理环境的背景下了解他们的市场。心理学和营销学研究人员通过模拟一个两阶段决策过程改进了消费者选择的模型，在这个过程中，消费者首先使用筛选他们的购买选项来将他们的选择缩小到一个考虑集，然后从这个集中选择最终的产品。这项工作将筛选和考虑集纳入最优产品组合设计决策和能源政策决策模型。模拟实验验证了这样一个假设，即在各种场景下，使用“先考虑后选择”的选择模型可以提高企业级模型的性能。该项目包括政府-行业-学术研讨会，政策白皮书，技术工程设计会议的会议，以及同行评议的出版物。这项工作增强了当前使用的消费者选择模型，在该模型中，每种选择都通过不断的权衡来评估。例如，忽视非补偿考虑行为可能会导致替代燃料汽车(AFV)的糟糕设计决策，导致CAFE合规成本增加，并错失减少温室气体排放的机会。汽车制造商必须设计出所有客户都能接受的AFV，而不仅仅是早期采用者，而增强的消费者决策模式是应对这一挑战的重要组成部分。考虑规则可能会限制AFV的潜在市场，可能是因为规模、成本或品牌一致性。如果不包括消费者考虑的规则，对交通能源政策影响的预测，特别是购买激励措施的有效性，是不完整的。当这种政策扩大了个人认为可行的个人交通选择时，它可能会更有效。

The objective of this project is to model how consumers make purchasing decisions in a world that includes manufacturers and government policy. The model is an engineering design tool that will help automobile designers understand their market in the context of the social, public and physical environments. Psychology and marketing researchers have improved models of consumer choice by modeling a two-stage decision process in which consumers first use screen their purchase options to narrow their choices to a consideration set, and then select a final product from this set. This work incorporates screening and consideration sets into models of optimal product portfolio design decisions and energy policy decisions. Simulation experiments test the hypothesis that using the "consider-then-choose" choice model improves enterprise-level model performance across a variety of scenarios. The project a government-industry-academic workshop, a policy white paper, a session at a technical engineering design conference, and peer-reviewed publications.This work enhances currently-used models of consumer choice in which every alternative is evaluated via continuous trade-offs. For example, ignoring non-compensatory consideration behavior may result in poor design decisions for alternate fuel vehicles (AFVs), leading to increased CAFE compliance costs and missed opportunities for greenhouse gas reductions. Automakers must design AFVs acceptable for all customers, not just early adopters, and enhanced models of consumer decisions are an important part of meeting this challenge. Consideration rules may restrict the potential market for AFVs, perhaps due to size, cost, or brand alignment. Forecasts of transportation energy policy impacts, particularly the effectives of purchase incentives, are incomplete without including consumer consideration rules. Such policy can be more effective when it broadens what individuals see as viable options for personal transportation.