Understanding the economic and environmental consequences of widespread deployment of thin film solar photovoltaics

1336534（赵）。该项目的总体目标是产生一个新的生命周期评估（LCA）框架，能够预测潜在的经济和环境后果，由于薄膜太阳能光伏（PV）的广泛部署所需的知识。薄膜太阳能电池由于成本较低，但能源效率相当，正在获得相当大的市场份额。然而，从生命周期的角度进行更仔细的研究表明，它们面临着一些与可持续性有关的独特挑战。薄膜太阳能电池的制造依赖于一些关键材料，如镉、碲、铟、镓和硒，这些材料供应有限，目前正被电子和其他行业使用。薄膜光伏作为一种新兴应用，将对这些关键材料展开竞争，并可能破坏供需平衡。这将反过来导致市场波动，并影响薄膜光伏的制造成本。此外，对这些原材料的需求不断增加，推高了价格，这证明使用低品位矿石是合理的。这将反过来改变薄膜光伏制造中消耗的关键材料的环境状况。本研究的目的是预测的经济和环境的影响，这种竞争的材料相结合的高分辨率部分平衡（PE）模型和生命周期库存模型。将执行五项研究任务：1）确定关键光伏材料和可能受影响的工业部门，2）开发PE模型以量化关键光伏材料的供需演变，3）量化关键光伏材料不断变化的环境状况，4）分析不确定性对模型输出的影响，以及5）利用建模框架进行政策评估。到目前为止，对薄膜PV的LCA研究大多是归因性的，在很大程度上忽略了受影响的工业/经济部门的涟漪反应。该项目旨在通过开发一个新的相应的LCA框架来填补这一关键的知识空白。这项研究将量化关键能源金属/材料在竞争部门之间的动态流动。如果成功，该项目将促进理解，并提供更准确的薄膜PV生命周期环境足迹的图片。该项目汇集了一位LCA专家（赵）和一位能源经济学家（Steinbuks）。将开发的LCA工具有可能帮助工程师设计更环保的薄膜光伏技术。它还可以促进制定公共政策，加快太阳能的普及，同时尽量减少不良的环境影响。这些结合起来可能有助于美国发电的绿色化，同时避免与过渡相关的意外环境后果。研究结果将被注入普渡大学的多门课程，增加这些课程中与可持续发展相关的教育材料的数量，并鼓励工程专业的学生在毕业后积极参与可持续发展工程和公共政策。在这个项目中，PI将继续努力招募那些在工程领域传统上代表性不足的学生。为了吸引更多来自弱势群体的学生进行研究和研究生学习，所有本科生都将在社交媒体（如facebook，twitter和google+）上记录他们的日常经历。为了达到更广泛的受众，所有的研究结果，案例研究和教学材料都将在普渡大学的研究数据库中提供。

1336534 (Zhao). The overarching goal of this project is to generate knowledge needed for a new life cycle assessment (LCA) framework that is capable of predicting potential economic and environmental consequences due to the wide deployment of thin film solar photovoltaics (PV). Thin film solar cells are gaining considerable market share against silicon wafer based panels due to lower costs but comparable energy efficiency. However, a closer examination from a life cycle perspective reveals that they face some unique challenges related to sustainability. Manufacturing of thin film solar cells relies on some key materials such as cadmium, tellurium, indium, gallium, and selenium, which are of limited supply and are currently being used by electronics and other industries. Thin film PV, as an emerging application, will compete for these key materials and could disrupt the supply-demand balance. This will in turn lead to market volatility and affect manufacturing cost of thin film PVs. In addition, increasing demand in these raw materials drives up prices which justify the utilization of low grade ores. This will in turn change the environmental profiles of key materials consumed in thin film PV manufacturing. This research aims at predicting the economic and environmental consequences of this competition for materials by combining high resolution partial equilibrium (PE) models and life cycle inventory modeling. Five research tasks will be performed: 1) identifying critical PV materials and industrial sectors potentially affected, 2) developing PE models to quantify supply and demand evolution of critical PV materials, 3) quantifying changing environmental profiles of critical PV materials, 4) analyzing effect of uncertainties on model outputs; and 5) utilizing the modeling framework for policy evaluation. LCA studies on thin film PVs to date are mostly attributional and have largely ignored the ripple effects in affected industrial/economic sectors. This project aims at filling this critical knowledge gap by developing a new consequential LCA framework. This research will quantify the dynamic flows of key energy metals/materials among competing sectors. If successful, the project will advance understanding and provide a more accurate picture of the life cycle environmental footprints of thin film PVs. This project brings together an LCA specialist (Zhao) and an energy economist (Steinbuks). The LCA tool to be developed has the potential to aid engineers in the design of more environmentally preferable thin film PV technologies. It could also facilitate the development of public policy to expedite the penetration of solar energy while minimizing undesirable environmental impacts. These in combination may contribute to the greening of electricity generation in the U.S. while avoiding unexpected environmental consequences associated with the transition. The research findings will be infused into multiple courses at Purdue, increasing the amount of sustainability-related educational material in these curricula and encouraging engineering students to actively engage in sustainability engineering and public policy after graduation. During this project, the PI will continue his efforts on recruiting students whose ethnicities are traditionally under-represented in engineering. To attract more students from under-represented groups to research and graduate study, all undergraduate students will document their daily experience on social media (e.g. facebook, twitter, and google+). To reach an even broader audience, all the findings, case studies, and teaching material will all be made available on Purdue's Repository for Research Data.