FESD Type 1:The impact of the ozone hole on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere

自1970年代末以来，南极臭氧急剧减少，对平流层的辐射平衡造成了重大扰动，对气候造成了一系列后果。有强有力的证据表明，臭氧的丧失显著改变了南半球对流层的气候，包括地表，对海洋环流、冰冻圈和耦合的碳循环产生了影响。随着臭氧消耗在接下来的半个世纪左右恢复，这些变化的相应逆转是可以预期的，这为观察气候系统如何从已知的扰动中放松提供了前所未有的机会。这里提出的努力集中于提高对当前南半球与臭氧消耗有关的气候变化的理解，以便我们能够更好地准备通过识别机制、影响和可观测指标来最大限度地利用未来臭氧层空洞的修复所代表的学习经验。南半球对全球气候系统的轨迹具有巨大的重要性，并提出了一个引人入胜的智力和建模挑战，涉及跨学科研究平流层、对流层和海洋的耦合；平流层中的化学、辐射和动力学的耦合；地球表面的海洋、冰和大气的耦合？S；碳循环与海洋动力学的耦合。这个问题是多尺度和多组成部分的，需要将大气化学、海洋生物地球化学、海冰动力学以及大气和海洋动力学与运输结合在一起。为了解决这个问题，我们召集了一个由来自麻省理工学院、哥伦比亚大学、约翰·霍普金斯大学和NCAR的研究人员组成的跨学科团队，他们的专业知识涵盖了上述领域。将部署一套不同复杂性的模型，以探讨南极平流层臭氧层空洞及其恢复对大气-海洋-冰-碳系统气候的机制、影响和指标。为此，我们将探讨：(I)相互作用化学如何改变平流层涡旋和气候系统其他部分之间的耦合；(Ii)导致海洋环流、冰盖、热量和碳吸收以及南大洋生物地球化学的变化(Iii)臭氧空洞对全球气候的影响和可观测指标。此外，它是一种可以在乐器记录的背景下进行研究的工具。这项研究的一个重要成果是制定了一个初步的气候指标清单，这些指标可以用来监测未来几十年在温室气体压力不断增加的情况下，从臭氧层空洞反弹的SH气候及其演变。广泛影响我们将扩大麻省理工学院和东北大学正在进行的活动，在国家科学课程开发的背景下对K-12教师进行气候科学教育，并将其中一些活动包括在JHU和哥伦比亚的K-12项目中。我们还建议在麻省理工学院接待和参与我们的研究和教育活动，暑期研究计划(MSRP)学生，这是一项机构努力，促进有才华的学生参与工程和科学研究，特别是那些来自代表性不足群体的学生。最后，我们建议通过两个研讨会让广大科学界参与南半球气候变化问题，包括就指标和所需观测发展社区观点。

The dramatic depletion of the Antarctic ozone since the late 1970s has introduced a major perturbation to the radiative balance of the stratosphere with a wide range of consequences for climate. There is strong evidence that ozone loss has significantly altered the climate of the southern hemisphere troposphere, including the surface, with implications for ocean circulation, the cryosphere and coupled carbon cycle. As ozone depletion recovers in the next half-century or so, a corresponding reversal of these changes can be expected, providing an unprecedented opportunity to observe how the climate system relaxes from a known perturbation. The effort proposed here focuses on improving the understanding of current southern hemisphere climate changes linked to ozone depletion, so that we can better prepare to maximize the learning experience represented by the future healing of the ozone hole through identification of mechanisms, impacts, and observable indicators.The Southern Hemisphere is of huge importance to the trajectory of the global climate system and presents a fascinating intellectual and modeling challenge involving interdisciplinary study of the coupling of the stratosphere, troposphere and ocean; coupling of chemistry, radiation and dynamics in the stratosphere; coupling of the ocean, ice and atmosphere at the earth?s surface; the coupling of the carbon cycle to ocean dynamics. The problem is multiscale and multi-component that requires the bringing together of atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, sea-ice dynamics together with atmospheric and ocean dynamics and transport.To tackle this problem we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of researchers from MIT, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University and NCAR, whose expertise covers the above areas. A suite of models of different complexity will be deployed to explore the mechanisms, impacts and indicators of the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole and its recovery on the climate of the atmosphere-oceanice- carbon system. To this end we will explore: (i) how interactive chemistry modifies the coupling between the stratospheric vortex and the rest of the climate system (ii) resulting changes in ocean circulation, ice cover, heat and carbon uptake, and biogeochemistry of the southern ocean (iii) the impacts and observable indicators of the ozone hole on the global climate.Intellectual meritThe problem outlined here is one of the most challenging in climate science demanding the development and deployment of a modeling hierarchy that arcs from the stratosphere to the interior ocean and couples chemistry, radiation, fluid dynamics, ice dynamics and the carbon cycle. Moreover, it is one that is amenable to study in the context of the instrumental record. An important product of the study is to make an initial list of climate indicators that could be used to monitor the rebound of SH climate from the ozone hole and its evolution over the next few decades in the presence of ever increasing greenhouse gas forcing.Broader ImpactsWe will extend ongoing activity at MIT and Northeastern University in which K-12 teachers are educated about climate science in the context of national science curriculum development and include some of these activities in K-12 programs at JHU and Columbia. We also propose to host and engage in our research and educational activities Summer Research Program (MSRP) students at MIT, an institutional effort that facilitates the involvement of talented students in engineering and science research, particularly those from underrepresented groups. Finally we propose to engage the broad science community on southern hemisphere climate change through two workshops, including developing a community view on indicators and needed observations.