FESD Type 1:The impact of the ozone hole on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere

自20世纪70年代末以来，南极臭氧的急剧消耗对平流层的辐射平衡造成了重大扰动，对气候产生了广泛的影响。有强有力的证据表明，臭氧损失已显著改变了南半球对流层（包括地表）的气候，对海洋环流、冰冻圈和耦合碳循环产生影响。随着臭氧消耗在未来半个世纪左右的时间内恢复，这些变化的相应逆转是可以预期的，这将提供一个前所未有的机会来观察气候系统如何从已知的扰动中放松下来。本文提出的工作重点是提高对当前与臭氧消耗相关的南半球气候变化的理解，以便我们能够更好地做好准备，通过确定机制、影响和可观察指标，最大限度地利用臭氧空洞未来愈合所代表的学习经验。南半球对全球气候系统的轨迹非常重要，并提出了涉及平流层、对流层和海洋耦合的跨学科研究的令人着迷的智力和建模挑战；平流层化学、辐射和动力学的耦合海洋、冰和大气在地球上的耦合？年代表面;碳循环与海洋动力学的耦合。这个问题是多尺度和多分量的，需要把大气化学、海洋生物地球化学、海冰动力学、大气和海洋动力学以及运输结合起来。为了解决这个问题，我们组建了一个由麻省理工学院、哥伦比亚大学、约翰霍普金斯大学和NCAR的跨学科研究人员组成的团队，他们的专业知识涵盖了上述领域。利用一套不同复杂程度的模型，探讨南极平流层臭氧空洞及其恢复对大气-海洋-冰-碳系统气候的机制、影响和指标。为此，我们将探讨：(i)相互作用的化学如何改变平流层涡旋与气候系统其余部分之间的耦合；（ii）导致海洋环流、冰盖、热量和碳吸收以及南大洋生物地球化学的变化；（iii）臭氧空洞对全球气候的影响和可观测指标。这里概述的问题是气候科学中最具挑战性的问题之一，它要求开发和部署一个从平流层到海洋内部的模型层次，并将化学、辐射、流体动力学、冰动力学和碳循环结合起来。此外，它是一个可以在仪器记录的背景下研究的。这项研究的一个重要成果是列出了一份气候指标的初步清单，这些指标可用于监测臭氧空洞引起的SH气候反弹及其在未来几十年温室气体强迫不断增加的情况下的演变。更广泛的影响我们将扩展麻省理工学院和东北大学正在进行的活动，在国家科学课程开发的背景下对K-12教师进行气候科学教育，并将其中一些活动纳入JHU和哥伦比亚大学的K-12课程。我们还建议在麻省理工学院举办和参与我们的研究和教育活动暑期研究计划（MSRP）学生，这是一项机构努力，促进有才华的学生参与工程和科学研究，特别是那些来自代表性不足的群体的学生。最后，我们建议通过两个研讨会让广泛的科学界参与南半球气候变化，包括就指标和所需的观察形成社区观点。

The dramatic depletion of the Antarctic ozone since the late 1970s has introduced a major perturbation to the radiative balance of the stratosphere with a wide range of consequences for climate. There is strong evidence that ozone loss has significantly altered the climate of the southern hemisphere troposphere, including the surface, with implications for ocean circulation, the cryosphere and coupled carbon cycle. As ozone depletion recovers in the next half-century or so, a corresponding reversal of these changes can be expected, providing an unprecedented opportunity to observe how the climate system relaxes from a known perturbation. The effort proposed here focuses on improving the understanding of current southern hemisphere climate changes linked to ozone depletion, so that we can better prepare to maximize the learning experience represented by the future healing of the ozone hole through identification of mechanisms, impacts, and observable indicators.The Southern Hemisphere is of huge importance to the trajectory of the global climate system and presents a fascinating intellectual and modeling challenge involving interdisciplinary study of the coupling of the stratosphere, troposphere and ocean; coupling of chemistry, radiation and dynamics in the stratosphere; coupling of the ocean, ice and atmosphere at the earth?s surface; the coupling of the carbon cycle to ocean dynamics. The problem is multiscale and multi-component that requires the bringing together of atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, sea-ice dynamics together with atmospheric and ocean dynamics and transport.To tackle this problem we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of researchers from MIT, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University and NCAR, whose expertise covers the above areas. A suite of models of different complexity will be deployed to explore the mechanisms, impacts and indicators of the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole and its recovery on the climate of the atmosphere-oceanice- carbon system. To this end we will explore: (i) how interactive chemistry modifies the coupling between the stratospheric vortex and the rest of the climate system (ii) resulting changes in ocean circulation, ice cover, heat and carbon uptake, and biogeochemistry of the southern ocean (iii) the impacts and observable indicators of the ozone hole on the global climate.Intellectual meritThe problem outlined here is one of the most challenging in climate science demanding the development and deployment of a modeling hierarchy that arcs from the stratosphere to the interior ocean and couples chemistry, radiation, fluid dynamics, ice dynamics and the carbon cycle. Moreover, it is one that is amenable to study in the context of the instrumental record. An important product of the study is to make an initial list of climate indicators that could be used to monitor the rebound of SH climate from the ozone hole and its evolution over the next few decades in the presence of ever increasing greenhouse gas forcing.Broader ImpactsWe will extend ongoing activity at MIT and Northeastern University in which K-12 teachers are educated about climate science in the context of national science curriculum development and include some of these activities in K-12 programs at JHU and Columbia. We also propose to host and engage in our research and educational activities Summer Research Program (MSRP) students at MIT, an institutional effort that facilitates the involvement of talented students in engineering and science research, particularly those from underrepresented groups. Finally we propose to engage the broad science community on southern hemisphere climate change through two workshops, including developing a community view on indicators and needed observations.