FESD Type 1:The impact of the ozone hole on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere

自1970年代后期以来，南极臭氧的急剧消耗对平流层的辐射平衡造成了重大扰动，对气候产生了广泛的影响。有强有力的证据表明，臭氧损失已显著改变了南半球对流层的气候，包括地表，并对海洋环流、冰冻圈和相关的碳循环产生了影响。随着臭氧消耗在今后半个世纪左右的时间内恢复，预计这些变化将出现相应的逆转，从而为观察气候系统如何从已知的扰动中松弛下来提供了前所未有的机会。在此提议的工作重点是提高对目前南半球与臭氧消耗有关的气候变化的认识，以便我们能够更好地做好准备，通过查明各种机制、影响、南半球对全球气候系统的轨迹具有巨大的重要性，并呈现出迷人的知识和模拟挑战涉及平流层、对流层和海洋耦合的跨学科研究;平流层中化学、辐射和动力学的耦合;地球上海洋、冰和大气的耦合？的表面;耦合的碳循环海洋动力学。这个问题是多尺度和多组分的，需要将大气化学、海洋地球化学、海冰动力学与大气和海洋动力学和运输结合起来。为了解决这个问题，我们组建了一个跨学科的研究团队，来自麻省理工学院、哥伦比亚大学、约翰霍普金斯大学和NCAR，他们的专业知识涵盖上述领域。将部署一套不同复杂程度的模型，以探索南极平流层臭氧洞及其恢复对大气-海洋冰-碳系统气候的机制、影响和指标。为此，我们将探讨：（一）相互作用的化学如何改变平流层涡旋与气候系统其余部分之间的耦合;（二）导致海洋环流、冰盖、热量和碳吸收的变化;和南大洋的海洋地球化学（iii）臭氧洞对全球气候的影响和可观测的指标。知识价值这里概述的问题是气候领域最具挑战性的问题之一科学要求开发和部署一个从平流层到海洋内部的模型层次，并耦合化学，辐射，流体动力学，冰动力学和碳循环。此外，这是一个可以在工具记录的背景下进行研究的问题。这项研究的一个重要成果是初步列出了气候指标，这些指标可用于监测在温室气体强迫不断增加的情况下，SH气候从臭氧洞反弹及其在未来几十年的演变。12名教师在国家科学课程开发的背景下接受气候科学教育，并将其中一些活动纳入JHU和哥伦比亚的K-12课程。我们还建议在麻省理工学院举办和参与我们的研究和教育活动夏季研究计划（MSRP）的学生，这是一项机构努力，旨在促进有才华的学生参与工程和科学研究，特别是那些来自代表性不足的群体。最后，我们建议通过两个研讨会，包括制定关于指标和所需观测的社区观点，让广大科学界参与南半球气候变化。

The dramatic depletion of the Antarctic ozone since the late 1970s has introduced a major perturbation to the radiative balance of the stratosphere with a wide range of consequences for climate. There is strong evidence that ozone loss has significantly altered the climate of the southern hemisphere troposphere, including the surface, with implications for ocean circulation, the cryosphere and coupled carbon cycle. As ozone depletion recovers in the next half-century or so, a corresponding reversal of these changes can be expected, providing an unprecedented opportunity to observe how the climate system relaxes from a known perturbation. The effort proposed here focuses on improving the understanding of current southern hemisphere climate changes linked to ozone depletion, so that we can better prepare to maximize the learning experience represented by the future healing of the ozone hole through identification of mechanisms, impacts, and observable indicators.The Southern Hemisphere is of huge importance to the trajectory of the global climate system and presents a fascinating intellectual and modeling challenge involving interdisciplinary study of the coupling of the stratosphere, troposphere and ocean; coupling of chemistry, radiation and dynamics in the stratosphere; coupling of the ocean, ice and atmosphere at the earth?s surface; the coupling of the carbon cycle to ocean dynamics. The problem is multiscale and multi-component that requires the bringing together of atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, sea-ice dynamics together with atmospheric and ocean dynamics and transport.To tackle this problem we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of researchers from MIT, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University and NCAR, whose expertise covers the above areas. A suite of models of different complexity will be deployed to explore the mechanisms, impacts and indicators of the Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole and its recovery on the climate of the atmosphere-oceanice- carbon system. To this end we will explore: (i) how interactive chemistry modifies the coupling between the stratospheric vortex and the rest of the climate system (ii) resulting changes in ocean circulation, ice cover, heat and carbon uptake, and biogeochemistry of the southern ocean (iii) the impacts and observable indicators of the ozone hole on the global climate.Intellectual meritThe problem outlined here is one of the most challenging in climate science demanding the development and deployment of a modeling hierarchy that arcs from the stratosphere to the interior ocean and couples chemistry, radiation, fluid dynamics, ice dynamics and the carbon cycle. Moreover, it is one that is amenable to study in the context of the instrumental record. An important product of the study is to make an initial list of climate indicators that could be used to monitor the rebound of SH climate from the ozone hole and its evolution over the next few decades in the presence of ever increasing greenhouse gas forcing.Broader ImpactsWe will extend ongoing activity at MIT and Northeastern University in which K-12 teachers are educated about climate science in the context of national science curriculum development and include some of these activities in K-12 programs at JHU and Columbia. We also propose to host and engage in our research and educational activities Summer Research Program (MSRP) students at MIT, an institutional effort that facilitates the involvement of talented students in engineering and science research, particularly those from underrepresented groups. Finally we propose to engage the broad science community on southern hemisphere climate change through two workshops, including developing a community view on indicators and needed observations.