Collaborative Research: Physical Drivers of Equivalent Temperature Variability

合作研究：等效温度变化的物理驱动因素

• 批准号: 1339655
• 负责人: Justin Schoof
• 金额: $ 15.83万
• 依托单位: Southern Illinois University at Carbondale
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-08-15 至 2018-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1339655&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Physical; Drivers; Equivalent

This research project will quantify historical and projected future variability in equivalent temperature in the eastern United States. Equivalent temperature is a metric that considers the total energy content of near-surface air by accounting for both the dry (sensible heat) and moist (latent heat) components. It therefore aligns well with human heat stress, which increases when temperature and humidity are simultaneously elevated. Because equivalent temperature is sensitive to changes in both temperature and humidity, variations in equivalent temperature can reflect processing occurring across a range of scales from global to regional. The objective of this project is to diagnose and attribute historical changes in equivalent temperature to processes occurring at the regional scale (e.g. changes in humidity resulting from soil moisture anomalies), the synoptic scale (e.g. changes in temperature and humidity associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation), and the global scale (e.g. changes in temperature and humidity associated with changes in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases). The project will investigate these processes within coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models and regional climate models in the context of developing 21st-century equivalent temperature projections.This project will address research needs identified in the National Climate Assessment process: to better understand atmospheric responses to atmospheric composition change and to improve understanding of atmospheric changes that may threaten human health and well-being. Equivalent temperature variability has not been previously considered in terms of multiple scales of influence. Attributing variations in equivalent temperature to the underlying processes across the spatial scales at which they act will allow exploration of mechanistic understanding of equivalent temperature tendencies in the historical record. Downscaling atmosphere ocean general circulation models using statistical and dynamical approaches with knowledge of the driving processes will allow the researchers to develop the best available projections of future equivalent temperature output and to contextualize those projections within a rigorous understanding of drivers of historical change. The results of the project will have broad implications for climate change adaptation and planning, because changes in equivalent temperature and its components may be critical for both human health and agriculture this century. Project results will be institutionally archived and made available to the research community. The project provides support for multiple graduate students at each institution, and thus contributes to development of the next generation of geographers and atmospheric scientists.

该研究项目将量化美国东部等效温度的历史和预测未来变化。 等效温度是一种度量标准，通过考虑干燥（显热）和潮湿（潜热）成分来考虑近地表空气的总能量含量。 因此，它与人类的热应激非常吻合，当温度和湿度同时升高时，热​​应激就会增加。 由于等效温度对温度和湿度的变化都很敏感，因此等效温度的变化可以反映从全球到区域范围内发生的处理过程。 该项目的目标是诊断等效温度的历史变化并将其归因于区域尺度（例如，土壤湿度异常导致的湿度变化）、天气尺度（例如，与大气环流变化相关的温度和湿度变化）和全球尺度（例如，与温室气体辐射强迫变化相关的温度和湿度变化）发生的过程。 该项目将在制定 21 世纪等效温度预测的背景下，研究耦合的大气海洋环流模型和区域气候模型中的这些过程。该项目将解决国家气候评估过程中确定的研究需求：更好地了解大气对大气成分变化的反应，并提高对可能威胁人类健康和福祉的大气变化的了解。 先前尚未从多尺度影响的角度考虑等效温度变化。 将等效温度的变化归因于其作用的空间尺度上的潜在过程将允许探索历史记录中等效温度趋势的机械理解。 使用统计和动力学方法以及驱动过程知识来缩小大气海洋环流模型将使研究人员能够开发出未来等效温度输出的最佳可用预测，并将这些预测置于对历史变化驱动因素的严格理解中。 该项目的结果将对气候变化适应和规划产生广泛影响，因为等效温度及其组成部分的变化可能对本世纪的人类健康和农业至关重要。 项目结果将进行机构存档并提供给研究界。 该项目为每个机构的多名研究生提供支持，从而为下一代地理学家和大气科学家的发展做出贡献。