Collaborative Research: Climate Change Impacts on Regional Wind Climates

全球气候变化的影响将在局部尺度上表现出来，因此量化风险、脆弱性、机会和确定适当的适应措施需要使用降尺度工具对气候系统进行空间分类描述。近地面风速的变率和变化对于气候变化对社会的影响具有特别重要的意义，因为它们会影响利用可再生能源的可行性以及对关键基础设施的风险。利用北美区域气候变化评估项目的产品和最先进的全球气候模型模拟，印第安纳大学大气科学项目的Sara Pryor教授和位于卡本代尔的南伊利诺伊大学地貌系的Justin Schoof教授将在几个月到几十年的时间尺度上确定并量化风气候变化的来源。并利用动力和经验降尺度工具，在全球气候变化情景下，对美国相邻地区的风气候进行了独特的详细预测。这项研究将有助于提高对风速时空变异性、风气候变异性的动力原因、极端风速的机制以及对最新一代全球和区域气候模式模拟结果的评估的认识。鉴于在气候变化预估中对不确定性来源和敏感性进行适当评估的关键重要性，还将开发风气候预估（定义为从不同情景发展的预估的传播）对主要不确定性来源的相对敏感性。实施该项目的动机是，需要在包括可再生能源和关键基础设施在内的关键经济部门采取减缓和适应气候变化的行动。例如，不断变化的风力气候可能会影响到到2030年风力涡轮机占美国电力供应20%的国家目标。该项目将更好地了解区域风气候的自然/内部变化，以及全球气候变化对区域风气候和现有风力发电厂运行的可能影响（至2035年），并量化整个21世纪风气候可能的长期变化，包括极端条件。

The impact of global climate change will be manifest at the local scale and thus quantification of risks, vulnerability, opportunities and identification of appropriate adaptation measures require spatially disaggregated descriptions of the climate system derived using downscaling tools. Variability and change in near-surface wind speeds have particular importance for climate change impacts on society via their impact on, for example, the feasibility of harnessing renewable energy resources and risks to critical infrastructure. Using products from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project and state-of-the-art global climate model simulations, Professors Sara Pryor from the Atmospheric Science Program at Indiana University and Justin Schoof from the Geography Department at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale will identify and quantify sources of wind climate variability on time scales from months to decades, and generate uniquely detailed projections of wind climates across the contiguous US under global climate change scenarios using both dynamical and empirical downscaling tools. This research will contribute to improved understanding of spatio-temporal variability in wind speeds, dynamic causes of variability in wind climates, mechanisms responsible for extreme wind speeds, and evaluation of the latest generation of Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. Given the key importance of proper assessment of sources of uncertainty and sensitivity in climate change projections, the relative sensitivity of wind climate projections (defined as spread in projections developed from different scenarios) to key sources of uncertainty will also be developed.The project is motivated by the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in key economic sectors including renewable energy and critical infrastructure. For example, changing wind climates may have implications for the national goal of obtaining 20% of US electricity supply from wind turbines by 2030. The project will generate better understanding of natural/internal variability of regional wind climates and possible influences of global climate change on regional wind climates and operation of existing wind power plants (to 2035) and quantification of possible longer-term shifts in wind climates, including extreme conditions, over the entire 21st century.