Collaborative Research: Reconstruction and Understanding of Antarctic Circulation Variability and Trends since 1905

海平面压力（SLP）变率模式是南极大气环流的潜在诊断，可用于模拟极地强迫机制，如平流层臭氧消耗、温室气体（GHG）增加、热带海温变化和固有的热带外气候动力学。以前的工作已经显示出在南极洲上空温度网格重建方面的一些技巧，但是没有类似的以南极洲为中心的SLP数据集。一些研究已经认识到这样一个事实，即南极的SLP变异性是地球上任何同等大小的区域中最大的。这意味着低信噪比。无论是模拟研究还是基于观测的研究，都需要考虑较长的时间周期，而不仅仅是1979年以来数据丰富的仪器测量期，以便评估各种强迫的作用并探测它们的信号。该项目试图回答两组问题：(1)在过去的一个世纪里，南极环流是如何变化的，无论是在单个站点还是在整个大陆？过去30年的变化在过去100多年中是独一无二的吗？(2)在纬向平均和区域环流型中，与这些变化相关的机制是什么？自然（内部）变率的范围是什么？海温、温室气体强迫和/或臭氧消耗的变化在推动这些变化中起什么作用？

Patterns of variability in sea level pressure (SLP) are a potential diagnostic of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, and may be used to model polar forcing mechanisms such as stratospheric ozone depletion, greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, tropical SST changes and intrinsic extra-tropical climate dynamics. Previous work has shown some skill in gridded reconstructions of temperature over Antarctica, yet no similar Antarctic-focused data sets exist for SLP. A few studies have recognized the fact that SLP variability over the Antarctic is the largest of any comparably sized region on Earth. This implies low signal-to-noise ratios. For both modeling and observation-based studies, long time periods need to be considered, not just the data-rich instrumented period since ~1979, in order to assess the roles of various types of forcing and to detect their signals. The project seeks to answer two sets of questions: (1) How has the Antarctic circulation changed during the last century, both at individual stations and across the continent? Are changes in the past three decades unique in the last 100+ years? (2) What mechanisms are associated with these changes, both in the zonal mean and regional circulation patterns? What is the range of natural (internal) variability, and what role do changes in SSTs, GHG forcing, and/or ozone depletion play in driving any of these changes?