The Variability and Predictability of the Amundsen / Bellingshausen Seas Low and its Connection to the Regional Antarctic Climate

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。 南极洲西部半岛是南极大陆唯一明显变暖的地区，因此与主要冰架的移动和丧失有关，最近在拉森B冰架（2002年）和威尔金斯冰架（2008年）中观察到了这一点。阿蒙森/别林斯高晋海低（英语：Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas Low，ABSL）是一个次天气系统，通常是持续的低压天气系统，导致WAP地区持续的西北偏西气流。 ABSL的强度和位置的长期变化、它与大尺度气候模态（如南方环形模态（SAM）和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO））的遥相关以及它与极涡的相互作用被认为是目前WAP观测到的南极气候变化归因的重要因素。由于缺乏可靠的观测，在这一极其偏远的大陆地区，仍然有很多不确定性，现有的卫星时代的观测数据（自1979年以来），沿着再分析集，将被检查，以摆脱更好的定义的变化的位置和强度的ABSL作为一种天气特征。一些模拟数据集，从一系列的中尺度和气候模式（如极地MM 5，AMIP，CCM CAM 3，HadAM 3，ECHAM4.5）也将在适当的ABSL的区域尺度上进行检查，以更好地描述气候模式的大尺度影响，如ENSO和SAM。最后，将对ABSL的变化可能对区域西南极气候的影响进行评估。

Abstract This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the one region of the Antarctic continent that is unequivocally warming, and as such is associated with the mobilization and loss of major ice shelves, as has been recently observed for the Larsen B (2002) and Wilkins Ice Shelf (2008). The Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas Low (ABSL) is a sub-synoptic, often persistent low-pressure weather system that leads to sustained west-northwesterly airflows across the WAP region. Long term changes in the strength and position of the ABSL, its teleconnection with large scale climate modes such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its interaction with the polar vortex are suspected to be important factors in attribution of Antarctic climate change currently being dramatically observed in the WAP. Because of the paucity of reliable observations in this extremely remote area of the continent, much remains that is uncertainExisting satellite-era observational data (since 1979), along with reanalysis sets, will be examined to shed better definition of the variability in position and intensity of the ABSL as a weather feature. Several modeled data sets, from a range of mesoscale and climatological models (e.g. Polar MM5, AMIP, CCM CAM3, HadAM3, ECHAM4.5) will also be examined at the regional scales appropriate to the ABSL to better describe the large scale influences of climate patterns such as ENSO and SAM. Finally an assessment of the effects variability in the ABSL may have on the regional West Antarctic climate will be made.