The Variability and Predictability of the Amundsen / Bellingshausen Seas Low and its Connection to the Regional Antarctic Climate

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)资助的。西南极半岛是南极大陆明显变暖的一个地区，因此与主要冰架的移动和丧失有关，最近观察到的拉森B冰架(2002年)和威尔金斯冰架(2008年)。Amundsen/Bellinghausen Seas Low(ABSL)是一种次天气级的、通常持续的低气压天气系统，导致持续的西北偏西气流横跨WAP地区。ABSL强度和位置的长期变化，它与大尺度气候模式如南环状模式(SAM)和厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)的遥相关，以及它与极涡的相互作用，被认为是目前在WAP戏剧性地观察到的南极气候变化的重要因素。由于在该大陆这一极其偏远的地区缺乏可靠的观测，仍有许多不确定因素，将对现有的卫星时代观测数据(自1979年以来)以及再分析集进行审查，以更好地界定ABSL作为一种天气特征在位置和强度上的可变性。来自一系列中尺度和气候模式(如极地MM5、AMIP、CCM CAM3、HadAM3、ECHAM4.5)的几个模型化数据集也将在适用于ABSL的区域尺度上进行审查，以更好地描述ENSO和SAM等气候模式的大尺度影响。最后，将评估ABSL的变化可能对西南极区域气候产生的影响。

Abstract This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the one region of the Antarctic continent that is unequivocally warming, and as such is associated with the mobilization and loss of major ice shelves, as has been recently observed for the Larsen B (2002) and Wilkins Ice Shelf (2008). The Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas Low (ABSL) is a sub-synoptic, often persistent low-pressure weather system that leads to sustained west-northwesterly airflows across the WAP region. Long term changes in the strength and position of the ABSL, its teleconnection with large scale climate modes such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its interaction with the polar vortex are suspected to be important factors in attribution of Antarctic climate change currently being dramatically observed in the WAP. Because of the paucity of reliable observations in this extremely remote area of the continent, much remains that is uncertainExisting satellite-era observational data (since 1979), along with reanalysis sets, will be examined to shed better definition of the variability in position and intensity of the ABSL as a weather feature. Several modeled data sets, from a range of mesoscale and climatological models (e.g. Polar MM5, AMIP, CCM CAM3, HadAM3, ECHAM4.5) will also be examined at the regional scales appropriate to the ABSL to better describe the large scale influences of climate patterns such as ENSO and SAM. Finally an assessment of the effects variability in the ABSL may have on the regional West Antarctic climate will be made.