The Variability and Predictability of the Amundsen / Bellingshausen Seas Low and its Connection to the Regional Antarctic Climate

本奖项由2009年美国复苏与再投资法案（公法111-5）资助。南极半岛西部（WAP）是南极大陆上一个明确变暖的地区，因此与主要冰架的动员和损失有关，最近在拉森B冰架（2002）和威尔金斯冰架（2008）中观察到这一点。阿蒙森/别令shausen海低压（ABSL）是一个亚天气性的、经常持续的低压天气系统，它导致持续的西北偏西气流穿过WAP地区。abl强度和位置的长期变化、与大尺度气候模态如南环模（SAM）和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）的遥相关以及与极地涡旋的相互作用可能是WAP观测到的南极气候变化归因的重要因素。由于在该大陆这一极其偏远的地区缺乏可靠的观测资料，因此仍有许多不确定因素，将对现有的卫星时代观测数据（自1979年以来）以及再分析集进行检查，以更好地定义ABSL作为一种天气特征的位置和强度的变化。来自一系列中尺度和气候学模式（如极地MM5、AMIP、CCM CAM3、HadAM3、ECHAM4.5）的若干模式数据集也将在适合ABSL的区域尺度上进行研究，以更好地描述诸如ENSO和SAM等气候模式的大尺度影响。最后，还将评估ABSL的变率可能对南极西部区域气候产生的影响。

Abstract This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the one region of the Antarctic continent that is unequivocally warming, and as such is associated with the mobilization and loss of major ice shelves, as has been recently observed for the Larsen B (2002) and Wilkins Ice Shelf (2008). The Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas Low (ABSL) is a sub-synoptic, often persistent low-pressure weather system that leads to sustained west-northwesterly airflows across the WAP region. Long term changes in the strength and position of the ABSL, its teleconnection with large scale climate modes such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its interaction with the polar vortex are suspected to be important factors in attribution of Antarctic climate change currently being dramatically observed in the WAP. Because of the paucity of reliable observations in this extremely remote area of the continent, much remains that is uncertainExisting satellite-era observational data (since 1979), along with reanalysis sets, will be examined to shed better definition of the variability in position and intensity of the ABSL as a weather feature. Several modeled data sets, from a range of mesoscale and climatological models (e.g. Polar MM5, AMIP, CCM CAM3, HadAM3, ECHAM4.5) will also be examined at the regional scales appropriate to the ABSL to better describe the large scale influences of climate patterns such as ENSO and SAM. Finally an assessment of the effects variability in the ABSL may have on the regional West Antarctic climate will be made.