Towards a data-based and physics-based model of interseismic and seismic behavior of Main Himalayan Thrust

喜马拉雅山脉是中亚地区地震灾害的主要威胁，对几个国家的密集人口和经济构成威胁。该项目将提供关于该地区地震活动的重要资料，更一般地说，将促进在地震危险研究中使用大地测量的方法。喜马拉雅地区最近和历史上发生的地震远远不能平衡喜马拉雅地区目前地震间应变的积累速度。因此，我们对喜马拉雅主逆冲断层的瞬态地震和可能的地震滑动如何释放地震间应变有一个非常不完整的看法。该项目的长期目标是开发一个动态模型，并获取适当的数据来验证和校准该模型，从而评估喜马拉雅地区可能发生的各种地震情景及其发生的可能性。为了实现这一目标，我们建议(1)继续监测和改进MHT上的地震间耦合建模；(2)使用动态建模来评估考虑到观测到的地震间耦合模式所需的断层摩擦特性；地震对世俗的敏感性和季节性压力建立一个(3)使用动态模型来测试如何引发小地震应力的统计数据,建立在MHT的下倾锁的边缘部分可以用来限制非常大型的活动断裂的统计整个锁区(4)约束的粘滞性质基于形浮动测量地壳表面负载变化引起的变形测量的GRACE重力卫星的使命。

The Himalaya stands out as the major threat with respect to seismic hazard in central Asia where it puts at risk the dense population and economies of several countries. The project will contribute important information regarding seismic activity in that area and, more generally, will advance methods regarding the use of geodetic measurements in seismic hazard studies.Recent and historical earthquakes in the Himalaya fall way short of balancing the rate at which interseismic strain is currently accumulating in the Himalaya. Thus we have a very incomplete view of how interseismic strain is released by transient seismic, and possibly, aseismic slip on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. The long term objective of this project is the development of a dynamic model and the acquisition of appropriate data to validate and calibrate the model that will allow assessing the full range of possible earthquake scenarios in the Himalaya and their probability of occurrence. To achieve that goal we propose (1) to keep on monitoring and improve the modeling of interseismic coupling on the MHT, (2) use dynamic modeling to evaluate the fault frictional properties needed to account for the observed pattern of interseismic coupling, the sensitivity of seismicity to secular and seasonal stress build up an (3) use dynamic models to test how the statistics of small earthquakes triggered by stress build up at downdip edge of the locked portion of the MHT can be used to constrain the statistics of the very large events rupturing the whole locked zone (4) constrain the viscous properties of the crust based on the geodetically measured deformation induced by surface load variations measured from the GRACE gravimetric satellite mission.