The Madden Julian Oscillation, Tropical Cyclones, and Extratropical Circulation Responses

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The project will investigate the following: the extent to which observations and reanalyses of the extratropical outcomes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation depend on the presence of tropical cyclones (TC) at different general geographical locations; whether different preferred extratropical outcomes occur during MJO events with or without tropical cyclones in many different general geographical regions; the relative impact on the predictability of the extratropical circulation associated with MJO events that include or do not include tropical cyclones in select geographical regions; the subsequent propagation patterns of MJO events that include or do not include TCs in particular initial states and the predictability of the MJO itself between different MJO initial states that include or do not include TCs in particular geographical regions. The research is focused on the Northwest Pacific basin and emphasizes the period September through October, when Northwest Pacific TCs are most frequent and MJO amplitude is often strong. Analysis of TCs in other basins will also concentrate on the 2-3 months of most intense TC activity there. Results will provide insights that might benefit commodity and energy markets as well as disaster planners, some of whom already consider the MJO and northwest Pacific TCs in their assessments of future risks of extreme temperature and rainfall or drought events. Thus this activity has substantial broader impacts.