The Madden Julian Oscillation, Tropical Cyclones, and Extratropical Circulation Responses

该项目将调查以下问题：对与马登·朱利安振荡有关的温带结果的观测和再分析在多大程度上取决于不同一般地理位置的热带气旋的存在；在许多不同的一般地理区域有或没有热带气旋的MJO事件期间，是否会出现不同的首选温带结果；对与选定地理区域中包括或不包括热带气旋的MJO事件有关的温带外环流的可预测性的相对影响；在特定初始状态中包括或不包括TCS的MJO事件的后续传播模式，以及在特定地理区域中包括或不包括TCS的不同MJO初始状态之间MJO本身的可预测性。研究的重点是西北太平洋海盆，重点是9~10月，西北太平洋热带气旋最频繁，MJO幅度往往较大。对其他盆地的TC的分析也将集中在那里最强烈的TC活动的2-3个月。这些结果将提供可能有益于商品和能源市场以及灾害规划者的见解，其中一些人已经在评估未来极端温度和降雨或干旱事件的风险时考虑了MJO和西北太平洋技术合作框架。因此，这项活动具有相当广泛的影响。

The project will investigate the following: the extent to which observations and reanalyses of the extratropical outcomes associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation depend on the presence of tropical cyclones (TC) at different general geographical locations; whether different preferred extratropical outcomes occur during MJO events with or without tropical cyclones in many different general geographical regions; the relative impact on the predictability of the extratropical circulation associated with MJO events that include or do not include tropical cyclones in select geographical regions; the subsequent propagation patterns of MJO events that include or do not include TCs in particular initial states and the predictability of the MJO itself between different MJO initial states that include or do not include TCs in particular geographical regions. The research is focused on the Northwest Pacific basin and emphasizes the period September through October, when Northwest Pacific TCs are most frequent and MJO amplitude is often strong. Analysis of TCs in other basins will also concentrate on the 2-3 months of most intense TC activity there. Results will provide insights that might benefit commodity and energy markets as well as disaster planners, some of whom already consider the MJO and northwest Pacific TCs in their assessments of future risks of extreme temperature and rainfall or drought events. Thus this activity has substantial broader impacts.