EAPSI: Understanding water availability through the modeling of groundwater flow and temperature of the Heihe River in China

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A warming climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China has led to decreases in permafrost extent and water insecurity. While it is speculated that there will be large-scale changes in water resource availability, it is unknown at what magnitude and rate these changes will occur. To test this, a three-dimensional, groundwater flow and temperature model will be developed for the Hulugou watershed, the headwaters of the Heihe River located on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Sihai Liang, a noted expert on quantitative hydrology and the Hulugou watershed, at the China University of Geosciences in Beijing. Conducting this research in China affords a unique opportunity to gather necessary field measurements. This research will help the hydrologic community by providing new knowledge on the effect of climatic changes on regional water resources.This project will investigate how thawing and freezing permafrost affects groundwater storage and movement. A coupled hydrogeologic model will incorporate the physics of water phase change, allowing for modeling of pore water freeze and thaw and permeability dependence on ice saturation. Model inputs will be constrained and calibrated by collecting and analyzing new field data from the Hulugou watershed. Major outcomes of the model will include: spatial and temporal distributions of subsurface temperature, fluid pressure, groundwater recharge, and discharge to the land surface. Model results will corroborate relationships between climatic effects on this watershed and a similar watershed in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. While these two watersheds are under similar climatic stresses and both potentially experiencing declines in water resources, underlying causes may differ. This NSF EAPSI is funded in collaboration with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.