EAPSI: Understanding water availability through the modeling of groundwater flow and temperature of the Heihe River in China

中国青藏高原气候变暖导致多年冻土范围缩小，水资源不安全。虽然据推测，水资源供应将发生大规模变化，但这些变化的幅度和速度尚不清楚。为了验证这一点，我们将为位于青藏高原北方边缘的黑河源头葫芦沟流域建立一个三维地下水流和温度模型。这项研究将与北京中国地质大学著名的定量水文学和葫芦沟流域专家梁四海博士合作进行。在中国进行这项研究提供了一个独特的机会，收集必要的实地测量。这项研究将有助于水文界提供新的知识，气候变化对区域水资源的影响。本项目将调查解冻和冻结永久冻土如何影响地下水储存和运动。 耦合水文地质模型将纳入水相变的物理学，允许模拟孔隙水冻结和解冻以及渗透率对冰饱和度的依赖。通过收集和分析葫芦沟流域新的野外数据，对模型输入进行约束和校准。该模型的主要结果将包括：地下温度的空间和时间分布，流体压力，地下水补给和排放到陆地表面。模型结果将证实气候对这个流域和类似的流域在落基山脉在科罗拉多之间的关系。虽然这两个流域面临类似的气候压力，而且都可能经历水资源的减少，但根本原因可能不同。这个NSF EAPSI是与中国科技部合作资助的。

A warming climate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China has led to decreases in permafrost extent and water insecurity. While it is speculated that there will be large-scale changes in water resource availability, it is unknown at what magnitude and rate these changes will occur. To test this, a three-dimensional, groundwater flow and temperature model will be developed for the Hulugou watershed, the headwaters of the Heihe River located on the northern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This research will be conducted in collaboration with Dr. Sihai Liang, a noted expert on quantitative hydrology and the Hulugou watershed, at the China University of Geosciences in Beijing. Conducting this research in China affords a unique opportunity to gather necessary field measurements. This research will help the hydrologic community by providing new knowledge on the effect of climatic changes on regional water resources.This project will investigate how thawing and freezing permafrost affects groundwater storage and movement. A coupled hydrogeologic model will incorporate the physics of water phase change, allowing for modeling of pore water freeze and thaw and permeability dependence on ice saturation. Model inputs will be constrained and calibrated by collecting and analyzing new field data from the Hulugou watershed. Major outcomes of the model will include: spatial and temporal distributions of subsurface temperature, fluid pressure, groundwater recharge, and discharge to the land surface. Model results will corroborate relationships between climatic effects on this watershed and a similar watershed in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. While these two watersheds are under similar climatic stresses and both potentially experiencing declines in water resources, underlying causes may differ. This NSF EAPSI is funded in collaboration with the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.