Collaborative Research: Understanding Arctic Marine Biogeochemical Response to Climate Change for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Using Regional and Global Climate System Models

合作研究：了解北极海洋生物地球化学对气候变化的响应，利用区域和全球气候系统模型进行季节到年代际预测

• 批准号: 1417925
• 负责人: Meibing Jin
• 金额: $ 43.78万
• 依托单位: University of Alaska Fairbanks Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-10-01 至 2019-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1417925&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Understanding; Arctic; Marine

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing rapid and dramatic environmental changes related to global warming. These changes affect the arctic marine carbon cycle as part of complex and coupled system interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land surfaces, with important feedbacks to the global Earth System, including altering the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Previous and ongoing studies have laid the foundations for improving the understanding of arctic carbon sinks and sources using observational studies, regional ice-ocean modeling, and recent global carbon cycle simulations. However, there remain large uncertainties in the understanding of variability and change in the arctic marine carbon budget that are difficult to reconcile with existing tools.This project will use the Regional Arctic System Model, comprised of marine biogeochemistry components in the eddy-resolving ocean and sea ice models to advance understanding and prediction of the arctic biogeochemical system, including shelf-basin and vertical nutrient exchange, the subsurface chlorophyll maximum, ice edge and under ice blooms and their role in ecosystem response to climate change. It builds on the recent and ongoing research by the team of investigators, including the development and evaluation of the marine biogeochemistry components for global sea ice/ocean models and the high resolution Regional Arctic System Model. The model simulates mass and energy exchange between sea ice, ocean, atmosphere and land on decadal timescales, with regionally constrained variability using observationally based atmospheric and oceanic datasets at lateral boundaries. The research will: (i) evaluate and refine the established ocean marine biogeochemistry model, and (ii) add a newly developed sea ice algal biogeochemistry component within the existing model infrastructure. These model enhancements will help better quantify variability, complexity, and change in arctic marine primary production. The overarching goal of this study is to achieve a comprehensive understanding of interactions between physical system components and the arctic marine carbon cycle, and to advance arctic system prediction at seasonal to centennial time scales with quantified uncertainty.

北冰洋正在经历与全球变暖有关的迅速和剧烈的环境变化。 作为海洋、大气、冰冻圈和陆地表面之间复杂和耦合的系统相互作用的一部分，这些变化影响北极海洋碳循环，并对全球地球系统产生重要反馈，包括改变大气温室气体的浓度。以前和正在进行的研究奠定了基础，以提高北极碳汇和源的观测研究，区域冰海洋建模，最近的全球碳循环模拟的理解。 然而，在理解北极海洋碳收支的可变性和变化方面仍存在很大的不确定性，难以与现有工具相协调，本项目将使用区域北极系统模型，该模型由涡旋分辨海洋和海冰模型中的海洋生物地球化学组成部分组成，以促进对北极生物地球化学系统的理解和预测，包括陆架盆地和垂直养分交换，次表层叶绿素最大值、冰缘和冰下水华及其在生态系统对气候变化响应中的作用。 它建立在调查小组最近和正在进行的研究的基础上，包括开发和评价全球海冰/海洋模型和高分辨率区域北极系统模型的海洋生态地球化学组成部分。 该模型模拟了海冰，海洋，大气和陆地之间的质量和能量交换的十年时间尺度上，与区域约束的变化，使用基于观测的大气和海洋数据集在横向边界。 该研究将：（i）评价和改进已建立的海洋生物地球化学模型，（ii）在现有的模型基础设施中增加新开发的海冰藻类生物地球化学部分。这些模型的改进将有助于更好地量化北极海洋初级生产的可变性，复杂性和变化。 本研究的总体目标是全面了解物理系统组成部分与北极海洋碳循环之间的相互作用，并在具有量化不确定性的季节性至百年时间尺度上推进北极系统预测。