Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Authoritarian Accountability and the Regulation of Online Communication in China

该项目旨在解释中国政府何时以及为何审查互联网。乍一看，现有的研究似乎有一个现成的答案：政府删除有助于街头或其他形式抗议的文字或图像，这些抗议要么a）威胁社会稳定，要么B）破坏政府信誉。然而，有人认为，上述关于抗议活动的理论不能解释政府当局放松审查的一些危机情况。相反，这个项目假设中国领导人，至少在一些突发事件中，在应对抗议相关内容的快速扩散时，采用了更微妙的策略。调查人员的理论是，在问题领域，当中国领导人在推动改革（环境、腐败和其他关键问题）方面的利益与关键公民群体的利益一致时，领导人会故意放松对网络媒体的控制。他们这样做是为了在高调的在线空间中表明，他们对公民在上述领域的需求负责。此外，领导人有时愿意这样做，甚至冒着允许网上言论为街头抗议或其他集体行动提供便利的风险。这个项目与威权政府对互联网的唯一关注是防止持不同政见者利用互联网挑战国家的观点形成了鲜明对比。虽然独裁领导人确实担心互联网可能会增强社会力量，从而威胁到他们对权力的控制，但像中国这样拥有更多资源和经验的政权也看到了利用社交媒体与不信任政府、不再相信共产主义或其他合法意识形态的中产阶级（在线）公民建立新联系的机会。如果这一理论是正确的，那么它将有助于解答过去20年来政治学中的一个核心难题--为什么一些威权政权在经历了快速发展的许多其他政权的历史崩溃之后仍然强大？该项目的智力价值与研究设计有关。为了验证这个问题，该项目混合了定量和定性研究方法。它采用了一种创新的方法来衡量审查制度和公民在网上的言论，方法是对原始社交媒体数据进行统计分析--特别是文本，并使用软件程序根据所表达的情绪对这些文本进行分组。该项目还采访了中国的四个群体--记者、互联网专业人士、博客作者和政府官员，他们都与审查制度有关。除了政治科学家，这项研究还涉及政策制定者和公众。华盛顿的中国政策界目前正在努力解决美国是否应该寻求与中国接触，或遏制其崛起。反过来，中国的对外行为不能脱离中国共产党稳定的国内来源来理解。因此，了解政府如何管理互联网对于制定有效的中国政策至关重要。除了政策之外，许多美国公民都很想了解中国公民在信息审查环境中如何与领导人互动，因为这些问题深深触及美国言论自由和代议制政府的价值观。最后，虽然该项目的重点是中国，但它对两个类似的威权国家--俄罗斯和伊朗--也有影响，这两个国家审查互联网，其国内稳定对美国至关重要。

This project seeks to explain when and why the Chinese government censors the Internet. Existing research at first glance appears to have a ready answer: the government deletes text or images that contribute to street or other forms of protest that either a) threaten social stability, or b) undermine government credibility. Yet it is argued that the above theory about protest activity cannot explain some crisis situations in which government authorities relaxed censorship. Instead, this project posits that Chinese leaders, during at least some breaking incidents, employ a more nuanced strategy when responding to the rapid proliferation of protest-related content. The investigator theorizes that in issue areas, and in moments where Chinese leaders' interests in promoting reforms (on the environment, corruption, and other key issues) align with those of key citizen groups, leaders deliberately loosen control over online media. They do so in order to demonstrate, in high-profile online space, that they are accountable to citizen demands in the above areas. Leaders, moreover, are sometimes willing to do so even at the risk of allowing online speech to facilitate street protests or other collective actions.This project serves as counterpoint to the idea that authoritarian governments' sole concern with the Internet is in preventing dissenters from using it to challenge the state. While authoritarian leaders indeed fear the Internet's potential to empower social forces that might threaten their hold on power, regimes with more resources and sophistication, like China, also see an opportunity to use social media to forge new connections with middle-class (online) citizens who do not trust the government, and who no longer believe in Communism or other legitimating ideologies. The theory proposed here, if true, would help answer a central puzzle in political science over the past twenty years - why do some authoritarian regimes remain strong, despite the historical collapse of many others that underwent rapid development?The intellectual merits of the project are associated with the research design. To test this question, the project mixes quantitative and qualitative research methods. It takes an innovative approach to measuring both censorship, and what citizens are saying online by statistically analyzing raw social media data - especially text, and using software programs to group such text by sentiments expressed. The project also involves interviews with four groups in China - journalists, Internet professionals, bloggers, and government officials, who each deal with censorship.This research concerns policymakers and the general public, in addition to political scientists. The China policy community in Washington is currently grappling with whether the United States should seek to engage China, or contain its rise. China's external behavior, in turn, cannot be understood apart from the domestic sources of Chinese Communist Party stability. Therefore, understanding how the government manages the Internet is vital to crafting an effective China policy. Beyond policy, many U.S. citizens are curious to understand how Chinese citizens interact with their leaders in a censored information environment, as such questions touch deeply on American values of free speech and representative government. Finally, while the project focuses on China, it has implications for two similar authoritarian states - Russia, and Iran - who censor the Internet and whose domestic stability is of vital interest to the United States.