AGS-PRF: Organization of Tropical Convection in Numerical Model Simulations: Self-Aggregation and Tropical Cyclogenesis

热带云和雷暴，被称为热带对流，经常被组织成包含许多单个单元的集群。 这些集群在影响降水分布和当地温度以及大规模风和湿度模式方面发挥着重要作用。 先前的数值模拟研究表明，对流具有通过更广泛的环境和对流之间的相互作用而自组织的能力，这一过程被称为“自聚集”。 在这项工作中，研究人员将把自我聚集的概念应用于热带气旋的形成。 该项目将以建模为基础，在理想化和现实的模型设置中模拟热带对流。 这项工作的成功完成将有助于更好地了解热带气旋的形成和更好地预报的潜力。 这项工作还将通过提供更准确的热带对流表示而使气候模型受益。 研究人员计划通过参与各种公共宣传活动来促进公众对科学的了解，该项目的主要目标是确定对流自聚集在热带气旋生成中的作用。 将处理三项主要任务。 研究人员将首先对自发热带气旋生成进行反馈分析。 这涉及使用大气建模系统（SAM）进行模拟。 研究人员将允许环流自发发展，而不是对模拟的对流施加外部强迫。 反馈分析将使研究人员能够直接比较热带气旋的自发形成与非旋转自聚集集群的发展。 研究计划的第二步是将上述云解析模拟中的成因过程与气候模型中的过程进行比较。 研究计划的最后一步将是研究对流组织的机制，在一个更现实的云解析模拟，迫使波扰动通过模型域，并通过包括背景切变。

Tropical clouds and thunderstorms, known as tropical convection, are often organized into clusters containing many individual cells. These clusters play a significant role in impacting precipitation distribution and local temperatures, as well as large-scale wind and moisture patterns. Prior numerical modeling studies have shown that convection has the ability to self-organize through interactions between the broader environment and the convection, a process known as "self-aggregation". In this work, the researcher will apply the concept of self-aggregation to the formation of tropical cyclones. The project will be modeling-based, with simulations of tropical convection in both idealized and realistic model setups. A successful completion of the work would lead to improved understanding of the formation of tropical cyclones and the potential for better forecasts. The work will also benefit climate models by providing a more accurate representation of tropical convection. The researcher plans to contribute to increasing public understanding of science by participating in a variety of public outreach efforts.The main objective of the project is to determine the role of convective self-aggregation in tropical cyclogenesis. Three main tasks will be addressed. The researcher will first conduct a feedback analysis of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis. This involves simulations using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). Rather than impose an external forcing on the modeled convection, the researcher will let the circulation be allowed to develop spontaneously. A feedback analysis will allow the researcher to directly compare the spontaneous genesis of a tropical cyclone to the development of a non-rotating self-aggregated cluster. The second step of the research plan will be to compare the genesis processes in the cloud-resolving simulations above to those processes in climate models. The final step of the research plan will be to study the mechanisms of convective organization in a more realistic cloud resolving simulation by forcing a wave disturbance through the model domain and by including background shear.