Water Scarcity Risk for the Global Trade Network

1438197(徐)。该项目的完成将为评估拥有全球供应链的行业的缺水风险提供一个综合工具。研究结果将帮助企业制定战略，减轻缺水风险，并为全球节水做出贡献。虽然结果是针对缺水风险的，但该模型框架将普遍适用于研究生物多样性丧失和生态系统退化等其他环境挑战带来的风险。将开发一个基于网络的交互式可视化工具，以广泛传播研究成果，以提高对全球贸易网络缺水风险的认识。这项研究的结果旨在帮助贸易和环境政策的决策，以缓解供应链显著全球化的行业的缺水风险。通过开发和应用概率网络分析框架，将实现评估全球贸易网络风险的目标。基于多区域投入产出模型，世界经济将被研究为一个贸易网络，其中节点是各国的产业，链接代表产业之间的商品和服务交换。无论是在国家一级还是在江河流域一级，这些行业因当地缺水而造成的经济损失的相对风险将被用来衡量全球贸易网络。将使用复杂的网络分析指标和方法对加权的全球贸易网络进行分析，以确定易受缺水风险影响的“热点”。将推广概率网络分析框架，以便更广泛地应用于除缺水之外的其他环境挑战所构成的风险。该项目还将开发一个基于网络的交互式可视化工具，以展示研究成果，促进有效的教学。

1438197 (Xu). The completion of this project will provide an integrated tool to evaluate water scarcity risks for industries with global supply chains. The results will help businesses develop strategies to mitigate water scarcity risk and contribute to global water conservation. Although the results are specific for water scarcity risk, the modeling framework will be generally applicable for studying risks posed by other environmental challenges such as biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. An interactive web-based visualization tool will be developed to broadly disseminate the research results to raise awareness of water scarcity risk for the global trade network. The results of this research are targeted to help decision-making in trade and environmental policies to mitigate water scarcity risk for industries with significantly globalized supply chains.The objective of evaluating risks for the global trade network will be achieved by developing and applying a probabilistic network analysis framework. Based on multi-regional input-output models, the world economy will be studied as a trade network in which nodes are industries in each country and links represent exchanges of goods and services between industries. Relative risks of economic losses in those industries due to local water scarcity at either the country level or river basin level will be used to weight the global trade network. The weighted global trade network will be analyzed using complex network analysis metrics and methods to identify "hotspots" vulnerable to water scarcity risks. The probabilistic network analysis framework will be generalized for broader applications to risks posed by other environmental challenges in addition to water scarcity. The project will also develop an interactive web-based visualization tool to present research results and facilitate effective teaching and learning.