Building Community and Capacity for an Internet-Accessible and State-Level Microsimulation Model of Tax and Benefit Policies

社会和经济政策的增加涉及福利计划和税收制度的变化，但评估计划影响和相互作用的方法有限，可用的方法主要提供联邦一级的信息。该项目将为评估政府政策的新工具制定一个完整的实质性和技术性计划--一个可上网的税收和福利政策微观模拟模型，能够估计国家一级政策变化的影响。微模拟模型是一个复杂的计算机程序，它使用实际的程序规则或假设的规则来模拟政府程序的操作。联邦税收和福利政策的变化通常使用由联邦政府机构开发的或为联邦政府机构开发的微观模拟模型进行评估；该项目将为一个工具奠定基础，该工具将允许在州一级进行微观模拟分析，任何人都可以通过互联网访问该工具。有了这个设想的模型，州政府分析员可以估计立法提议的税收或福利项目变化的成本或工作量影响，学术研究人员可以评估一系列变化对州贫困的影响，学生可以进行分析以更好地了解项目是如何运行的，具有相互竞争理念的非营利性政策组织可以使用来自相同来源的定量估计来讨论国家政策提案，个人可以看到变化的项目将如何影响不同的家庭。新模型的设计将基于现有的模拟模型--由卫生与公众服务部资助和版权的TRIM3微模拟模型，规划和评估助理秘书办公室(HHS/ASPE)，由城市研究所开发和维护。数据来源将是美国人口普查局进行的美国社区调查，该调查为州一级的分析提供了大量样本。TRIM3已经包括了详细的州级模拟，但它主要使用不同的数据源，其计算机体系结构和用户界面不允许广泛的公共访问。新模式的规划将包括三项相互关联的活动。首先，研究人员将与潜在用户举行会议和网络研讨会，包括州政府工作人员、学者和其他对州一级政策感兴趣的个人。参与者将被问及最重要的建模功能、需要的用户界面类型以及最有帮助的建模结果类型。其次，研究小组将为用户界面和各种格式的结果开发原型设计。这些设计将与潜在的社区共享，以获得他们的反应和建议的改进。最后，研究小组将确定哪种计算机体系结构将最好地支持这种类型的模型，允许多个用户以非常快的运行速度同时设置和运行模拟。最终的书面产品将是实施新模式的完整计划。这项工作还将发展一个由研究人员和政策制定者组成的社区，他们已经或希望将微观模拟技术应用于分析各自州的政策选择。

Social and economic policy increasing involves changes in both benefit programs and the tax systems, yet methods to assess program impacts and interactions are limited, and the available approaches provide primarily federal-level information. This project will develop a complete substantive and technical plan for a new tool for assessing government policies-an Internet-accessible microsimulation model of tax and benefit policies able to estimate the impacts of policy changes at the state level. A microsimulation model is a complex computer program that mimics the operations of government programs using either actual program rules or hypothetical rules. Changes in federal tax and benefit policies are often assessed using microsimulation models developed by or for federal government agencies; this project will lay the groundwork for a tool that will allow microsimulation analysis at the state level, and that will be accessible to anyone with Internet access. With the envisioned model, state government analysts could estimate the cost or caseload impact of a legislatively-proposed change in a tax or benefit program, an academic researcher could assess the impact of a package of changes on state poverty, students could conduct analyses to better understand how programs operate, non-profit policy organizations with competing philosophies could discuss a state policy proposal using quantitative estimates from the same source, and an individual could see how changing programs would affect different families.The design for the new model will be based on an existing simulation model-the TRIM3 microsimulation model, which is funded and copyrighted by the Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (HHS/ASPE) and developed and maintained by the Urban Institute. The data source will be the American Community Survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census, which provides large samples for state-level analysis. TRIM3 already includes detailed state-level simulations, but it primarily uses a different data source, and its computer architecture and user interface do not allow extensive public access. The planning for the new model will include three inter-related activities. First, the researchers will hold meetings and webinars with prospective users, including state government staff, academics, and other individuals interested in state-level policies. Participants will be asked what modeling capabilities are most important, the type of user interface that is needed, and the types of modeling results that would be most helpful. Second, the research team will develop prototype designs for the user interface and for results in various formats. These designs will be shared with the potential community to obtain their reactions and suggested improvements. Finally, the research team will determine what computer architecture will best support this type of model, allowing multiple users to simultaneously set up and run simulations, with very fast run speeds. The final written product will be a complete plan for the implementation of the new model. The work will also result in the development of a community of researchers and policymakers who have applied or who want to apply microsimulation techniques to the analysis of policy options in their states.