CyberSEES: Type 1: A New Reliability-Assuring Computational Framework for Grid Operations under High Renewable Penetration

虽然可再生能源发电被认为是可持续未来的关键，但风能/太阳能发电在高渗透水平下的可变性和不确定性对电网可靠性构成了前所未有的挑战。在今天的电力系统中，可靠性是通过分析一组偶然事件来评估的，例如发电机或输电线路的损失。然而，这些基于偶然性的方法在大型风能/太阳能斜升事件下是不够的，这在高可再生能源渗透率下变得越来越频繁和重要。具体而言，大型风能/太阳能斜升事件不应被视为单一的应急事件。相反，它必须被建模为一个不确定的事件序列，按顺序显示的时间，但系统操作员必须立即采取行动，在这样的事件序列中，尽管未来的重大不确定性。由于这一关键差异，传统的基于偶然性的方法无法再准确地量化风能/太阳能高渗透率下的可靠性资源需求，导致资源调度成本更高，以抵消管理不善的不确定性。为了应对这一挑战，CyberSEES项目开发了一个新的数学上严格的计算框架，用于采购和调度受限的电网资源，旨在可证明地确保在高可再生能源渗透率下可靠和经济的电网运营。该项目集成了分钟/小时时间尺度（用于平衡需求和供应）和秒/次秒时间尺度（用于动态安全评估）的可靠性分析。具体而言，项目团队开发了确保可靠性的在线算法，用于在分钟/小时时间尺度上进行日首机组投入和实时经济调度，可证明在大型和不确定的风能/太阳能斜升事件下平衡需求和供应。此外，在线算法紧密结合计算效率高的基于集合的可达性分析，以评估动态系统的安全性在第二/亚秒的时间尺度，这提供了保证边界的风/太阳能的不确定性的存在下的动态系统状态。该项目的成功将使我们在可再生能源高度普及的情况下确保电力系统可靠性的能力发生范式转变。在更广泛的范围内，研究结果将有助于在全球范围内增加可再生能源的采用，并将实现向可持续未来电网的平稳过渡。所开发的计算框架也将适用于小型电力系统，如远程微电网。此外，通过推进在线算法设计和可达性分析，这些结果预计将有助于计算，这也将对其他学科有用。这项工作的结果将通过会议和期刊出版物广泛传播，并积极与业界分享。

While renewable electricity generation is considered key to a sustainable future, the variability and uncertainty of wind/solar generation at high penetration levels pose unprecedented challenges to grid reliability. In today's power systems, reliability is assessed by analyzing a set of contingency events, such as the loss of generators or transmission lines. However, these contingency-based methods are insufficient under large wind/solar ramping events, which become increasingly frequent and significant at high renewable penetration. Specifically, a large wind/solar ramping event should not be treated as a single contingency event. Rather, it must be modeled as an uncertain event-sequence that is sequentially revealed in time; yet the system operator must take immediate actions in the midst of such an event-sequence despite significant future uncertainty. Due to this critical difference, traditional contingency-based methods can no longer accurately quantify the resource requirement for reliability at high wind/solar penetration, leading to more costly dispatch of resources to offset poorly-managed uncertainty. To address this open challenge, this CyberSEES project develops a new and mathematically rigorous computational framework for procuring and dispatching constrained grid resources, which aims to provably ensure reliable and economic grid operations under high renewable penetration. The project integrates reliability analysis at both the min/hour time-scales (for balancing demand and supply) and the second/sub-second time-scales (for dynamic security assessment). Specifically, the project team develops reliability-assuring online algorithms for day-head unit commitment and real-time economic dispatch at the min/hour time-scales, which provably balance demand and supply under large and uncertain wind/solar ramping events. Further, the online algorithms are tightly integrated with computationally-efficient set-based reachability analysis for assessing dynamic system security at the second/sub-second time-scales, which provides guaranteed bounds for dynamic system states in the presence of wind/solar uncertainty. The success of this project will lead to paradigm-shifting advances in our ability to ensure power system reliability under high renewable penetration. At a broader scale, the results will contribute to the increased adoption of renewable energy sources worldwide, and will enable a smooth transition path to a sustainable future grid. The developed computational framework will also be applicable to small-footprint power systems, such as remote microgrids. Further, the results are expected to contribute to computation by advancing online algorithm design and reachability analysis, which will also be useful to other disciplines. The results of this work will be widely disseminated through conference and journal publications and actively shared with industry.