Role of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Determining the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over Sub-Saharan Northern Africa

本研究旨在加深我们对中尺度对流系统(MCSs)与撒哈拉以南北非地区暖季降水日循环的关系的理解。这项研究具体讨论了观测到的暖季MCSs的时空分布，以及这些系统的发展、传播和寿命如何受到当地和区域环境因素的影响。本研究将观测分析与高分辨率中尺度模式相结合，以加深我们对暖季MCSs发展及其与降水日循环的关系的理解。智力价值这项研究将增加我们对降雨变异性、物理机制以及与这些时空差异相关的过程的理解。将开发的统计数据和其他指标将有可能影响天气模式参数化方案目前和/或未来的发展。其结果将对降雨预报具有重要意义，这将对该地区的社区产生影响。使用允许对流的高时空分辨率天气模式模拟，在关闭典型的参数化方案的情况下，将允许显式计算产生对流所需的动力学。更广泛的影响改善对撒哈拉以南北非地区降水控制因素的经验和理论知识，将使生活在该地区的人们能够更好地预测和准备应对干旱和极端降雨事件。利用高分辨率天气模式准确再现观测结果的努力，将为短期预测全球这一特定区域的大型雷暴团和降雨的发展提供最适当的模式设置的指导。该项目非常适合对研究生进行最先进的观测分析和大气建模技术的培训。学生参与研究活动将有助于发展重要的批判性思维和科学沟通技能。这项研究为许多科学家提供了机会，让他们了解控制非洲这一地区降雨的重要因素。

AbstractThis research seeks to improve our understanding of the relationship between Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and the diurnal cycle of warm season rainfall over sub-Saharan Northern Africa. The study specifically addresses the observed warm season spatial and temporal distribution of MCSs; as well as how the development, propagation and lifetimes of these systems are influenced by local and regional environmental factors. This study combines observational analysis with high-resolution mesoscale modeling to advance our understanding of the development of warm season MCSs and their relationship to the daily cycle of precipitation. Intellectual MeritThis study will add to our understanding of rainfall variability, physical mechanisms and the processes associated with these temporal and spatial differences. The statistics and other metrics that will be developed will have the potential to impact present and/or future development of weather model parameterization schemes. The results will be of importance to rainfall forecasting, which will have implication for communities in the region. The use of convective-permitting high space-time resolution weather model simulations, with typical parameterization schemes turned off, will allow the explicit calculation of the dynamics needed to generate convection. Broader ImpactsImproving empirical and theoretical knowledge of the factors controlling precipitation in sub-Saharan North Africa will allow those living in the area to better anticipate and prepare for periods of both drought and extreme rainfall events. Efforts to accurately reproduce observations with high-resolution weather models will provide guidance on the most appropriate model settings for short-term predictions of the development of large thunderstorm clusters and rainfall in this specific region of the globe. This project is ideally suited to train graduate students in state-of-the-art observational analysis and atmospheric modeling techniques. Student participation in research activities will assist in the development of important critical thinking and scientific communication skills. This study offers the opportunity to teach many scientists about the important factors controlling rainfall in this region of Africa.