Improved Understanding of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System Evolution

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This study seeks to understand the structure and evolution of nocturnal (nighttime) thunderstorms using data collected from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign conducted in the summer of 2015. The research results from this study have the potential to be very relevant to improving operational forecast models and informing operational weather forecasters. Societal benefits include improved forecasting and increased lead-time to warn citizens of the impending dangers from these nighttime thunderstorms and the associated hazards of high wind, heavy rainfall and flooding. The PI plans to conduct very high-resolution (down to 1km grid spacing) simulations of nocturnal thunderstorms. The underlying science of accurately forecasting warm season (summer) rainfall over the Great Plains of the United States remains elusive. This research will focus on the role of the low-level jet (LLJ), boundary layer processes, and microphysical processes. The PI proposes to use the WRF and NMMB numerical models to conduct the research, and to use special observations from the recent PECAN field experiment, along with routinely available observations, to evaluate the model output.