Improved Understanding of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System Evolution

本研究旨在利用2015年夏季开展的平原夜间高架对流（PECAN）野外活动收集的数据，了解夜间雷暴的结构和演变。本研究的研究结果对于改进业务预报模型和为业务天气预报员提供信息具有非常重要的潜力。社会效益包括改进预报和增加提前时间，以警告市民这些夜间雷暴即将来临的危险以及强风、暴雨和洪水的相关危害。PI计划对夜间雷暴进行高分辨率（栅格间隔低至1公里）模拟。准确预测美国大平原暖季（夏季）降雨量的基础科学仍然难以捉摸。本文将重点研究低空射流（LLJ）、边界层过程和微物理过程的作用。PI建议使用WRF和NMMB数值模型进行研究，并使用最近PECAN野外试验的特殊观测结果以及常规观测结果来评估模型输出。

This study seeks to understand the structure and evolution of nocturnal (nighttime) thunderstorms using data collected from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign conducted in the summer of 2015. The research results from this study have the potential to be very relevant to improving operational forecast models and informing operational weather forecasters. Societal benefits include improved forecasting and increased lead-time to warn citizens of the impending dangers from these nighttime thunderstorms and the associated hazards of high wind, heavy rainfall and flooding. The PI plans to conduct very high-resolution (down to 1km grid spacing) simulations of nocturnal thunderstorms. The underlying science of accurately forecasting warm season (summer) rainfall over the Great Plains of the United States remains elusive. This research will focus on the role of the low-level jet (LLJ), boundary layer processes, and microphysical processes. The PI proposes to use the WRF and NMMB numerical models to conduct the research, and to use special observations from the recent PECAN field experiment, along with routinely available observations, to evaluate the model output.