Improved Understanding of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System Evolution

这项研究试图利用2015年夏季开展的平原夜间高空对流(山核桃)实地活动收集的数据来理解夜间(夜间)雷暴的结构和演变。这项研究的研究结果可能对改进业务预报模式和为业务天气预报员提供信息具有非常重要的意义。社会益处包括改进预报和增加提前时间，以警告公民这些夜间雷暴即将到来的危险以及大风、暴雨和洪水等相关危险。PI计划对夜间雷暴进行非常高分辨率(低至1公里网格间距)的模拟。准确预测美国大平原暖季(夏季)降雨量的根本科学仍然难以捉摸。这项研究将集中在低空急流、边界层过程和微物理过程的作用。PPI建议使用WRF和NMMB数值模式进行研究，并使用最近山核桃田间试验的特殊观测以及常规观测来评估模型的输出。

This study seeks to understand the structure and evolution of nocturnal (nighttime) thunderstorms using data collected from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign conducted in the summer of 2015. The research results from this study have the potential to be very relevant to improving operational forecast models and informing operational weather forecasters. Societal benefits include improved forecasting and increased lead-time to warn citizens of the impending dangers from these nighttime thunderstorms and the associated hazards of high wind, heavy rainfall and flooding. The PI plans to conduct very high-resolution (down to 1km grid spacing) simulations of nocturnal thunderstorms. The underlying science of accurately forecasting warm season (summer) rainfall over the Great Plains of the United States remains elusive. This research will focus on the role of the low-level jet (LLJ), boundary layer processes, and microphysical processes. The PI proposes to use the WRF and NMMB numerical models to conduct the research, and to use special observations from the recent PECAN field experiment, along with routinely available observations, to evaluate the model output.