New GPS Constraints on Africa-Arabia-Eurasia Plate Kinematics

地中海活跃的板块边界相互作用是复杂的，对生活在该区域的人口构成重大的地震危险。在这项研究中，麻省理工学院的研究人员将与一个大型多国团队合作，对过去20年来收集的该地区的GPS数据进行分析，这些数据跟踪板块的方向和速度，以更好地了解该地区的板块相互作用以及北安纳托利亚断层等地震断层的运动。当通过新的全球定位系统数据的透镜进行研究时，作为这一板块系统特征的活跃地球动力学过程的范围（大陆碰撞、俯冲/板片回滚、岩石圈拆沉、大陆转换断层和三重连接、火山作用、海洋和大陆裂谷作用）为活跃大陆构造提供了新的见解，对地震、海啸和火山自然灾害具有更广泛的影响。拟议活动造福社会或促进预期社会成果的潜力主要在于：（1）通过改进沿着非洲-阿拉伯-欧亚板块边界系统的地震危险估计基础，改善社会中个人的福祉;（2）通过实质性国际合作加强伙伴关系;和（3）通过将国际伙伴数据库中的大量数据存档在联合国志愿人员组织数据库中供开放获取，加强研究基础设施。根据1994-2014年期间的连续观测和调查观测，生成了非洲-阿拉伯-欧亚板块系统的新长期速度场。速度场包括活动构造周围的主要致密化和提高的分辨率（北安纳托利亚和东安纳托利亚、死海和主高加索冲断断层、希腊弧、科林斯裂谷湾、扎格罗斯褶皱和冲断带、红海、亚丁湾和东非裂谷、达纳基尔和阿法尔凹陷）以及内部应变率低的地区（土耳其东部/伊朗高原，安纳托利亚中部，爱琴海中南部/伯罗奔尼撒半岛，阿拉伯板块）。该项目与来自法国、土耳其和澳大利亚的研究人员合作，利用这一新的速度来探索阿拉伯-非洲-欧亚板块系统各组成部分的行为。对爱琴海和安纳托利亚西部/中部变形的研究侧重于块体和连续体变形模型，并估计主要断层的滑动速率。对北安纳托利亚断层滑动速率和锁定深度的研究将改善对沿着断层全长约1200 km范围的滑动速率和锁定深度的限制，并限制可能与上次地震以来的时间和/或其他断层特征的空间变化有关的速率和锁定深度的可能变化。最后，通过对非洲-阿拉伯-欧亚大陆板块内部和板块间变形和动力学的研究，探讨了该系统的运动学模型。用于1994-2014年速度场的完整数据集以及任何新的观测结果将存档在联合国志愿人员组织数据库中，供开放查阅。

The active plate boundary interactions in the Mediterranean are complex and pose significant earthquake hazards for the populations living in that region. In this study, MIT researchers in conjunction with a large multi-national team will carry out analyses of GPS data, which track the directions and speeds of the plates, for this region that have been collected over the past 20 years in an effort to better understand the plate interactions in this region as well as the motion of earthquake generating faults such as the North Anatolian fault. The range of active geodynamic processes that characterize this plate system (continental collision, subduction/slab rollback, lithospheric delamination, continental transform faults and triple junctions, volcanism, ocean and continental rifting), when studied through the lens of the new GPS data, affords new insights into active continental tectonics with broader implications for earthquake, tsunami, and volcanic natural hazards. The potential for the proposed activity to benefit society or advance desired societal outcomes lies primarily in the following: (1) improved well-being of individuals in society through improved basis of earthquake hazard estimation along the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia plate boundary system; (2) increased partnerships through a substantial international collaboration; and (3) enhanced infrastructure for research by archiving a large amount of data from international partner data in the UNAVCO database for open access.In collaboration with many international institutions, a new secular velocity field for the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia plate system based on continuous and survey observations for the period 1994-2014 has been generated. The velocity field includes major densification and improved resolution around active structures (North and East Anatolian, Dead Sea, and Main Caucasus Thrust faults, Hellenic arc, Gulf of Corinth rift, Zagros Fold and Thrust belt, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and East African rifts, Danakil and Afar depression) and areas characterized by low internal strain rates (East Turkey/Iranian High Plateau, central Anatolia, south-central Aegean/Peloponnese, Arabian Plate). This project, carried in collaboration with researchers from France, Turkey, and Australia, utilizes this new velocity to explore the behavior of various components of the Arabia-Africa-Eurasia plate system. Research on the Aegean and western/central Anatolia deformation focuses on block and continuum deformation models, and estimating slip rates on major faults. Work on the North Anatolian fault slip rates and locking depths will provide improved constraints on slip rates and locking depths along the full, approximately 1200 km extent of the fault and constrain possible variations in rates and locking depths that may be related to the time since the last earthquake, and/or spatial variations in other fault characteristics. Finally, study of Africa-Arabia-Eurasia intra- and inter-plate deformation and dynamics investigates kinematic models for the system. The full data set used for the 1994-2014 velocity field plus any new observations will be archived in the UNAVCO database for open access.