Collaborative research: Sea-level variability during the Common Era

第一部分：将开展的研究将有助于为区域和全球平均海平面上升预测提供信息，并有助于气候变化影响评估。调查人员将以比现在更高的分辨率和更详细的信息，重建纽芬兰和佛罗里达大西洋沿岸沿着和佛罗里达墨西哥湾沿岸的共同时代（近2000年）的相对海平面变化。 研究人员将与国家河口研究保护区海岸培训计划，罗格斯大学气候和环境变化倡议，罗格斯大学合作推广计划，以开发应用本项目的信息。该项目旨在为高中生提供一个地球观察IGNITE项目，为他们提供参加实地考察和亲身体验科学研究的机会。研究结果将在塔夫茨研究日和罗格斯日向当地社区展示，这是在校园内举行的年度活动，将允许公众与研究人员接触。本科生将参与研究，在实地工作和实验室分析。这项工作将支持两名早期职业调查人员，并为罗格斯大学和塔夫茨大学的博士后科学家以及罗格斯大学和罗得岛大学的研究生提供部分支持。第二部分：利用地质代用指标，以~0.2m的垂直分辨率和十年至百年的时间分辨率，重建沿纽芬兰和佛罗里达大西洋沿岸以及佛罗里达墨西哥湾沿岸沿着的共同时代相对海平面变化。为了估计全球平均海平面和北美东部共同时代相对海平面的时空场，新的相对海平面重建将与现有的相对海平面重建和验潮仪测量相结合，在经验贝叶斯统计框架。这些数据和统计模型将用于检验以下研究问题：1）北美大西洋和海湾沿岸的海平面沿着变化是否是中世纪气候异常期间气候变暖和小冰期气候变冷的直接后果;（2）公元时期海平面的空间变化是否可以归因于陆地冰变化和/或海洋动力学的静态平衡效应; 3）具有深度变化的地球结构的地球模型是否足以捕获沿北美东海岸沿着的冰川均衡调整的时空几何形状;以及4）北美东部自~1850年以来的海平面上升速率是否大于前两千年期间的任何其他百年趋势。拟议的工作具有重要的社会意义，因为它将提供更准确的数据用于预测区域和全球平均海平面上升，并有助于气候变化影响评估。

Part 1The research to be performed will help inform projections of regional and global mean sea-level rise as well as contribute to the climate change impacts assessment. The investigators will reconstruct the relative sea-level variability during the Common Era (~ last 2000 years) along the Atlantic coasts of Newfoundland and Florida and the Florida Gulf coast at higher resolution and in greater detail than is now available. The investigators will work with the National Estuarine Research Reserves Coastal Training Program, the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative, and Rutgers Cooperative Extension program to develop applied use of the information from this project. The project seeks to offer an Earthwatch IGNITE project to high school students to provide them with the opportunity to participate in field trips and experience the scientific research firsthand. Results will be showcased to the local community at Tufts Research Days and Rutgers Day, annual events held on campus which will allow the public to engage with the researchers. Undergraduate students will be involved in the research, in both field work and laboratory analysis. Two early-career investigators will be supported by this work and partial support will be provided for postdoctoral scientists from Rutgers University and Tufts University and for graduate students at Rutgers University and the University of Rhode Island. Part 2The proposed work will use geological proxies to reconstruct Common Era relative sea level variability along the Atlantic coasts of Newfoundland and Florida and the Florida Gulf coast at ~0.2m vertical resolution and decadal-to-centennial temporal resolution. To estimate global mean sea level and the spatio-temporal field of eastern North American Common Era relative sea level, the new relative sea level reconstructions will be combined with existing relative sea level reconstructions and tide gauge measurements in an empirical Bayesian statistical framework. The data and statistical model would be used to test the following research questions: 1) whether sea level along the North American Atlantic and Gulf coasts has varied as a direct consequence of a warmer climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and cooler climate during the Little Ice Age; 2) whether spatial variability of sea level during the Common Era can be attributed to static-equilibrium effects of land ice changes and/or ocean dynamics; 3) whether Earth models with depth-varying Earth structure are sufficient to capture the spatio-temporal geometry of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment along the east coast of North America; and 4) whether the rate of sea-level rise since ~1850 in eastern North America has been greater than any other centennial trend during the previous two millennia. The proposed work is of significant societal relevance as it will provide more accurate data for use in the projections of regional and global mean sea-level rise as well as contribute to the climate change impacts assessment.