Collaborative Research: Dynamics and Predictability of East and Central Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events

该合作项目的广泛影响包括进一步了解不同类型的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件及其可预测性，并培养两名研究生，该项目将进一步了解中太平洋和东太平洋ENSO事件的动力学和可预测性。研究小组在使用观测约束方法以及使用一套物理模型进行模拟方面具有丰富的经验。以下的科学问题将被解决：什么动力过程负责初始结构演变成特定类型的ENSO事件？是否有物理机制可以解释这些初始结构的随机作用力？在特定事件演变过程中的初始结构和随机强迫如何影响特定类型ENSO事件的可预测性？与随机强迫的变化相比，平均状态条件的变化在影响不同类型ENSO事件统计的长期变化方面有多重要？又有多可预测？

The broader impacts of this collaborative project include furthering understanding of different types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and their predictability, and the training of two graduate students, This project will further our understanding of the dynamics and predictability of Central Pacific and East Pacific ENSO events. The research team has extensive experience in using observational constrained approaches as well as in undertaking simulations using a suite of physical models. The following scientific questions will be addressed: What dynamical processes are responsible for the evolution of initial structures into a particular type of ENSO event? Are there physical mechanisms that can explain the stochastic forcing of these initial structures? How do initial structures and stochastic forcing throughout the evolution of a particular event affect the predictability of a particular type of ENSO event? How important - and how predictable - are changes in mean state conditions versus changes in stochastic forcing in influencing long-term variations in the statistics of different types of ENSO events?