Tropical Atmosphere/Ocean Variability in the Boreal Summer and Its Relationship with Atlantic Hurricanes

北半球夏季热带大气/海洋变化及其与大西洋飓风的关系

• 批准号: 0849689
• 负责人: Daniel Vimont
• 金额: $ 58.63万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-15 至 2014-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0849689&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Tropical; Atmosphere; Ocean; Variability; Boreal

The Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) is the leading mode of coupled variability in the Atlantic, and represents a distinct coupled pattern of sea surface temperature and atmospheric fields that emerges through a broad spectrum of external forcing mechanisms. Previous work has shown that the AMM may provide a dynamical explanation for the observed coherence between a number of regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are relevant for tropical cyclone formation. This project aims to better understand the cause of AMM variations during boreal summer, with an emphasis on understanding the link between the AMM and tropical cyclone activity. The research will utilize designed experiments using global general circulation models, dynamical analysis of simple coupled models, analysis and interpretation of observational data, and analysis of existing global coupled model simulations of present and future climate. Specifically, this project will address (i) What is the structure of the AMM during boreal summer? (ii) What dynamical processes control the AMM during boreal summer, and the relationship between the AMM and environmental conditions that influence hurricane activity? (iii) What external forcing mechanisms influence the AMM during boreal summer, and what is the relationship between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and AMM, and (iv) What is the predictability of the AMM, and what processes influence that predictability?Broader impacts of this project include encouraged integration between the disciplines of climate dynamics and tropical cyclone characteristics, training of two graduate students and one post-doctoral researcher, broader dissemination of results in national and international venues, and public availability of real-time data relating to the AMM and to tropical cyclone activity.

大西洋经向模态（AMM）是大西洋耦合变率的主要模态，代表了通过广泛的外部强迫机制出现的海表温度和大气场的独特耦合模式。 以前的工作表明，AMM可以提供一个动力学解释的一些区域大气和海洋条件是相关的热带气旋形成之间的观测到的一致性。 本项目旨在更好地了解北半球夏季AMM变化的原因，重点是了解AMM和热带气旋活动之间的联系。 这项研究将利用全球大气环流模式设计的实验、简单耦合模式的动力学分析、观测数据的分析和解释以及对现有全球耦合模式模拟当前和未来气候的分析。具体来说，这个项目将解决（一）什么是结构的AMM在北方夏季？(ii)什么动力过程控制着北半球夏季的AMM，以及AMM与影响飓风活动的环境条件之间的关系？(iii)什么外部强迫机制影响AMM在北方夏季，什么是大西洋年代际振荡（AMO）和AMM之间的关系，和（iv）什么是AMM的可预测性，什么过程影响可预测性？该项目的更广泛影响包括鼓励气候动力学和热带气旋特征学科之间的整合，培训两名研究生和一名博士后研究员，在国家和国际场所更广泛地传播成果，以及公开提供与AMM和热带气旋活动有关的实时数据。