Hazard SEES: An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment and Management in Responding to Land Falling Hurricanes in a Changing Climate

飓风通过其强风、暴雨和风暴潮在全世界造成巨大破坏和生命损失。最近发生的灾害（例如，2013年的台风海燕; 2012年的飓风桑迪，2011年的艾琳和2005年的卡特里娜）强调了美国和世界对登陆飓风的严重脆弱性。这些风暴的影响在未来几十年可能会恶化，因为沿海地区的快速发展，加上可能增加的飓风活动和海平面上升。该项目正在制定一个新的框架，以基础物理学为基础评估和管理飓风风险。该框架将适用于所有受飓风影响的沿海地区。我们正在对纽约、新泽西、北卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达的沿海地区进行案例研究，以评估和比较这些地区的飓风危害，估计这些危害未来可能如何演变，并制定应对这些危害的工程和政策战略。这项研究涉及几个学科，包括地球科学、工程和建筑，以及社会、行为和经济科学，并有助于培养自然灾害领域的下一代专家。这项研究的结果将支持美国和世界各地沿海地区的重建和提高复原力。 基于物理的飓风风险评估是具有挑战性的，由于多尺度特征的现象。这项研究正在推进飓风和气候科学，目标是从根本上加强飓风风险分析。我们正在开发两个独立的飓风气候学模型，以研究飓风频率，强度和规模如何在不断变化的气候中演变。我们正在应用观测分析和数值模拟来研究飓风风，浪涌和降雨灾害，包括其空间和时间结构，它们的相互作用，以及海岸，陆地，热带外过渡和气候变化的影响。我们正在开发基于物理学的，观测评估和计算效率高的灾害模型，以评估各种气候情景下的联合灾害概率;我们还创建了一个描述飓风灾害复合影响的风和水脆弱性的多灾害模型。结合改进的联合灾害和脆弱性的估计，风险评估，然后可以进行支持先进的风险管理从各个角度。该项目的风险管理部分侧重于美国国家洪水保险计划的政策和沿海防洪工程设计。这些工具对于减轻飓风风险和提高沿海复原力至关重要，本项目将在气候变化的新背景下开发这些工具。

Hurricanes, through their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. Recent disasters (e.g., Typhoon Haiyan in 2013; Hurricanes Sandy in 2012, Irene in 2011 and Katrina in 2005) underscore the significant vulnerability of the U.S. and the world to land-falling hurricanes. The impacts of these storms may worsen in coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with possibly increasing hurricane activity and sea level rise. This project is developing a new framework for assessing and managing hurricane risk based on fundamental physics. The framework will be applicable to all hurricane-afflicted coastal areas. We are carrying out case studies for the coastal areas in New York, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida to assess and compare hurricane hazards in these areas, estimate how these hazards may evolve in the future, and develop engineering and policy strategies for coping with these hazards. This research involves several disciplines, including geosciences, engineering and architecture, and social, behavioral and economic sciences, and is helping to prepare next-generation of specialists in the fields of natural hazards. The results from this research will support the rebuilding and increased resiliency of coastal areas in the U.S. and around the world. Physics-based hurricane risk assessment is challenging, due to multi-scale features of the phenomena. This research is advancing hurricane and climate science, with the objective of fundamentally enhancing hurricane risk analysis. We are developing two independent hurricane climatology models to investigate how hurricane frequency, intensity, and size will evolve in a changing climate. We are applying observational analysis and numerical modeling to study hurricane wind, surge, and rainfall hazards, including their spatial and temporal structures, their interaction, and effects of the coast, land, extratropical transition, and changing climate. We are developing physics-based, observationally-evaluated, and computationally-efficient hazard models to assess joint hazard probabilities under various climate scenarios; we are also creating a multi-hazard model of wind and water vulnerability describing the compound impacts of hurricane hazards. Combining the improved estimation of the joint hazards and vulnerability, risk assessment can then be carried out to support advanced risk management from various perspectives. The risk management component of this project is focusing on the policies of the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program and engineering designs for coastal flood mitigation. These instruments are critical in mitigating hurricane risk and increasing coastal resiliency, and this project will develop them in the new context of changing climate.