Hazards SEES: The Risk Landscape of Earthquakes Induced by Deep Wastewater Injection

美国正在经历国内石油和天然气生产的大规模扩张。这些活动涉及大量的水，无论是在水力压裂还是在油藏生产中，能源热潮伴随着注入废水处理的大量增加。越来越多的证据表明，废水注入在一定条件下会引起地震。例如，注入诱发的地震被认为是一些地方地震增加的原因，比如俄克拉荷马州，2014年经历的大于3级的地震次数比加州多。尽管目前有很多关于油气产量增加对水和空气质量的潜在影响的研究，但关于注水井如何影响地震风险的研究却很少，这给社区、行业和监管机构带来了很大的不确定性。CU诱发地震活动合作实验室（CCIS）正在开发地球科学、社会科学和工程理解、模型和方法，以量化与注入诱发地震相关的风险，并评估可持续管理和减轻这些风险的策略。这项研究为当地社区、监管机构和油气行业提供了重要的知识，包括地震监测的指导文件；以科学为基础的监管模式，可以帮助指导州和地方的监管决策；以及工业、保险公司和其他机构使用的地震风险工具。这些信息可用于管理与注入引起的地震活动有关的风险，以促进能源的更可持续发展。该项目包括一个外部咨询委员会，由来自监管机构、工业界和学术界的代表组成。该小组帮助研究团队开发产品，并促进知识和产品向关键决策者的转移。该项目还为一批研究生和博士后提供了跨越学科的技能，以创建科学工具来模拟和评估与诱发地震相关的风险，并更好地传达这些风险。该团队在科学和工程领域有很高的女性代表，这被用来招募和指导代表性不足的学生。ccis正在探索注入井诱发地震的机制，这些地震对建筑环境造成破坏的可能性，以及诱发地震的社会和经济影响。这个项目扩展了我们对自然（主题一）、建筑（主题二）和人类（主题三）环境在诱发地震活动的创造和管理中的复杂相互作用的认识。在主题一中，我们正在对注水井周围的地表变形进行地震监测和卫星测量分析，并建立流体力学模型。我们在主题二的研究侧重于新的脆弱性和危害模型，以主动评估诱发地面震动对结构和基础设施的风险，并探索监测和其他监管行动如何影响风险。在我们的主题三中，我们正在研究诱发地震活动如何反映在社区风险认知、知识共享网络和压力中；我们也正在创建一个不同州所追求的监管替代方案的综合目录。我们的研究基于科罗拉多州和德克萨斯州的四个案例研究社区。我们的研究对深层污水注入引起的地震进行了全面研究，将流体流动、地震引发和地面震动特征与基础设施破坏的概率模型联系起来，并将所有这些工作与社会科学研究联系起来，研究社区对风险认知、社会凝聚力和知识共享网络的影响。我们正在调查有关诱发地震活动的现行法规，并研究法规如何影响和响应地球科学、工程和社区过程。我们正在通过现场和参与性的实证研究和设计，结合地震和卫星仪器以及多尺度模型的数据收集来实现我们的目标。在这样做的过程中，我们的研究正在改变我们对自然-人类-物理耦合系统的可持续性的理解，这些系统影响和受深层废水注入引起的地震的影响，这反过来又为减轻和管理这些风险提供了新的方法。

Non-technical SummaryThe United States is experiencing a major expansion of domestic oil and gas production. These activities involve large amounts of water, both in hydraulic fracturing and in reservoir production, and the energy boom has been accompanied by a major increase in wastewater disposal by injection. There is growing evidence that wastewater injection can generate earthquakes under certain conditions. For example, injection-induced earthquakes are thought to be responsible for the increase of earthquakes in some places, like Oklahoma, which in 2014 experienced a greater number of earthquakes larger than Magnitude 3 than California. Although there is much ongoing research related to the potential impacts of the increased oil and gas production on water and air quality, little work has been done to understand how injection wells affect seismic risk, creating substantial uncertainty for communities, industry, and regulators. The CU Collaboratory for Induced Seismicity (CCIS) is developing the geoscience, social science, and engineering understanding, models, and methods needed to quantify risks associated with injection-induced earthquakes and to evaluate strategies for sustainably managing and mitigating these risks.This research is providing vital knowledge to local communities, regulators, and the oil and gas industry, including guidance documents on seismic monitoring; a science-based model regulation that can help guide state and local regulatory decisions; and seismic risk tools for use by industry, insurers, and others. This information may be used to manage risks associated with injection-induced seismicity to foster more sustainable development of energy. The project involves an External Advisory Board, composed of representatives from regulatory agencies, industry, and academia. This group helps the research team develop products and facilitate the transfer of knowledge and products to key decision makers. The project is also providing a cohort of graduate students and postdocs with the skills to bridge across disciplines to create scientific tools to model and evaluate the risks associated with induced earthquakes and to better communicate these risks. The team has a high representation of women in science and engineering, which is being leveraged to recruit and mentor underrepresented students.Technical DescriptionCCIS is probing the mechanisms by which injection wells induce earthquakes, the potential for these earthquakes to cause damage to the built environment, and the social and economic impacts of induced earthquakes. This project is expanding our knowledge of the complex interactions of the natural (Theme I), built (Theme II), and human (Theme III) environments in the creation and management of induced seismicity. In Theme I, we are conducting seismic monitoring and analysis of satellite measurements of surface deformations around injection wells and developing hydromechanical models. Our research in Theme II is focusing on new fragility and hazard models to proactively assess the risk of induced ground shaking to structures and infrastructure, and is exploring how monitoring and other regulatory actions impacts risk. In our Theme III, we are examining how induced seismicity is reflected in community risk perceptions, knowledge sharing networks, and stresses; we are also creating a comprehensive catalog of regulatory alternatives pursued by different states. Our research is grounded in four case study communities in Colorado and Texas.Our research presents a holistic study of earthquakes induced by deep wastewater injection, linking fluid flow, earthquake initiation, and ground shaking characteristics to probabilistic models for damage to infrastructure and connecting all this work with social science research on community impacts with respect to risk perceptions, social cohesion, and knowledge sharing networks. We are investigating current regulations on induced seismicity, and examining how regulations impact and respond to geoscience, engineering, and community processes. We are accomplishing our goals through in situ and participatory empirical research and design, combined with data collection from seismological and satellite instruments and multi-scale models. In doing so, our research is transforming our understanding of the sustainability of the coupled natural-human-physical systems that affect and are affected by earthquakes induced by deep wastewater injection, which in turn enables new approaches for mitigating and managing these risks.