Hazards SEES: Improved prediction of geomagnetic disturbances, geomagnetically induced currents, and their impacts on power distribution systems

显著的太阳风暴引起地球磁场的扰动（地磁扰动或GMD），这进而在电力传输系统中感应电流。 这些地磁感应电流（GIC）对社会所依赖的配电系统构成了潜在的灾难性威胁。 例如，1989年3月的一场太阳风暴引发了GIC，导致级联Transformer故障和大范围停电，影响了魁北克的数百万人。 该项目正在对GIC和GMD可能对电网产生的影响进行定量了解，这对于帮助公用事业行业提前规划和降低风险至关重要。 通过开发全面的建模和分析方法，从空间天气开始，到对电网运行的影响结束，我们正在推动新的有用的分析工具和见解。 我们还通过分析直接磁场测量与Transformer中性电流之间的耦合，增进科学界对地球的了解。 最后，我们的外联工作正在向公众提供有关太阳、高层大气、空间天气危害、地球的地球物理特性和电网的关键概念的信息。技术摘要我们的项目旨在提高对严重太阳风暴对我们配电系统影响的过程的科学理解。该团队正在研究太阳风驱动器与地面磁场扰动之间的关系，开发改进的感应电场模型，并提高GIC灾害的预测能力。该团队正在开发算法，既推进了感应电场的科学，又作为大容量电力系统中GIC危害的预测工具，包括Transformer发热和损坏以及电压稳定性的损失。正在开发、增强和验证影响模型，以便更好地预测GMD对电力系统的影响，从而实现实时响应和长期恢复能力。

Non-technical summarySignificant solar storms cause disturbances in Earth's magnetic field (geomagnetic disturbances or GMDs), which in turn induce currents in electric power transmission systems. These geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a potentially catastrophic threat to the power distribution systems on which society depends. For example, a solar storm in March 1989 triggered GICs that caused cascading transformer failures and widespread blackouts that affected millions of people in Quebec. This project is developing a quantitative understanding of the impacts that GICs and GMDs can have on the power grid, which is critical to helping the utility industry plan ahead and reduce risk. Through developing a comprehensive modeling and analysis approach, beginning with space weather and ending with impacts to grid operation, we are driving new useful analytic tools and insights. We are also improving the scientific community's understanding of the Earth through analysis of coupling between direct magnetic field measurements and transformer neutral currents. Finally, our outreach efforts are providing information to the public about critical concepts related to the sun, the upper atmosphere, space weather hazards, Earth's geophysical properties, and the power grid. Technical SummaryOur project is intended to improve the scientific understanding of the processes governing the impacts on our power distribution system of severe solar storms. The team is studying the relationship between solar wind drivers and magnetic field perturbations on the ground, developing improved models of induced electric fields, and enhancing prediction capabilities for GIC hazards. The team is developing algorithms that both advance the science of induced electric fields and operate as a predictive tool of GIC hazards in the bulk power system, including transformer heating and damage and loss of voltage stability. Impact models are being developed, enhanced, and validated to provide better prediction of the effects of GMDs on power systems for both real-time response and longer-term resilience.