Hazards SEES: Improved prediction of geomagnetic disturbances, geomagnetically induced currents, and their impacts on power distribution systems

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Non-technical summarySignificant solar storms cause disturbances in Earth's magnetic field (geomagnetic disturbances or GMDs), which in turn induce currents in electric power transmission systems. These geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) pose a potentially catastrophic threat to the power distribution systems on which society depends. For example, a solar storm in March 1989 triggered GICs that caused cascading transformer failures and widespread blackouts that affected millions of people in Quebec. This project is developing a quantitative understanding of the impacts that GICs and GMDs can have on the power grid, which is critical to helping the utility industry plan ahead and reduce risk. Through developing a comprehensive modeling and analysis approach, beginning with space weather and ending with impacts to grid operation, we are driving new useful analytic tools and insights. We are also improving the scientific community's understanding of the Earth through analysis of coupling between direct magnetic field measurements and transformer neutral currents. Finally, our outreach efforts are providing information to the public about critical concepts related to the sun, the upper atmosphere, space weather hazards, Earth's geophysical properties, and the power grid. Technical SummaryOur project is intended to improve the scientific understanding of the processes governing the impacts on our power distribution system of severe solar storms. The team is studying the relationship between solar wind drivers and magnetic field perturbations on the ground, developing improved models of induced electric fields, and enhancing prediction capabilities for GIC hazards. The team is developing algorithms that both advance the science of induced electric fields and operate as a predictive tool of GIC hazards in the bulk power system, including transformer heating and damage and loss of voltage stability. Impact models are being developed, enhanced, and validated to provide better prediction of the effects of GMDs on power systems for both real-time response and longer-term resilience.