NeTS: Small: Modeling IPv6 Adoption: A Measurement-driven Computational Approach

业界对IPv4地址稀缺的广泛认识推动了在大多数现代操作系统和网络设备中对IPv6的广泛支持，但即使有地区地址注册机构(RIR)多年来的鼓励和政府的强制要求，IPv6的实际采用仍然令人失望。庞大的软件应用和设备生态系统仍然不支持IPv6，许多旨在支持过渡的技术增加了复杂性，降低了性能和可靠性。因此，可以理解的是，对于IPv6是否会被互联网运营商广泛采用，各方缺乏共识，这给更广泛的互联网生态系统在规划未来方面带来了巨大的不确定性和风险。虽然一些公司避免部署IPv6，但其他公司勇敢地努力成为IPv6的早期采用者，如果过渡最终失败，可能会损失他们的投资。鉴于这些令人望而生畏的情况，即使是怀疑能否理解像互联网这样庞大而复杂的网络的动态，也必须考虑使用测量来表征影响(或可能抑制)IPv6部署的因素。该项目广泛测量并描述了当前IP寻址生态系统中可能导致和/或反映IPv6部署决策的两种现象：基于市场的IPv4地址块传输和运营商级NAT(CGN)部署。这项研究分析了报告给RIR的一组转移，以表征这个市场的演变，以及转移是否可能通过促进囤积行为来抑制IPv6的采用。地址转移也可以在没有RIR批准的情况下发生。该项目开发了使用BGP和DNS数据以及从CAIDA群岛基础设施收集的主动测量来检测灰色市场转移的新方法，以及使用主动和被动测量方法来检测运营商网络中运营商级NAT部署的存在和演变的方法。该项目还调查了CGN可能导致的潜在性能损害和应用程序中断。由此产生的数据和分析为网络运营商、政府和互联网政策制定者提供了关于全球互联网未来的迫切需要的见解。该项目的成果将通过在会议和期刊上发表的出版物进行传播。该项目产生的所有数据和工具将向研究和业务界发布，并将以幻灯片、动画和视频的形式提供无障碍教育材料。

Broad industry awareness of IPv4 address scarcity has driven widespread support for IPv6 in most modern operating systems and network equipment, but even with years of encouragement from regional address registries (RIRs), and government mandates, the actual uptake of IPv6 has been disappointing. A vast ecosystem of software applications and devices still do not support IPv6, and many technologies designed to support the transition add complexity and reduce performance and reliability. Understandably then, there is a lack of consensus on whether IPv6 will ever be widely adopted by ISPs, leaving the broader Internet ecosystem with tremendous uncertainty and risk in planning for the future. While some companies have avoided IPv6 deployment, others have undertaken valiant efforts to be early adopters of IPv6, risking loss of their investment should the transition ultimately fail. Given these daunting circumstances, even skeptics of the ability to comprehend the dynamics of such a large and complex network as the Internet must consider the utility of measurements to characterize factors affecting (and possibly inhibiting) IPv6 deployment. This project extensively measures and characterizes two phenomena in the current IP addressing ecosystem that may either cause and/or reflect IPv6 deployment decisions: market-based transfers of IPv4 address blocks and deployment of Carrier Grade NATs (CGNs). This research analyzes the set of transfers reported to the RIRs to characterize the evolution of this market, and whether transfers may be inhibiting IPv6 adoption by promoting hoarding behavior. Address transfers could also be happening without the approval of the RIRs. This project develops novel methods using BGP and DNS data and active measurements collected from CAIDA's Archipelago infrastructure to detect grey market transfers, and active and passive measurement methods to detect the presence and evolution of Carrier-Grade NAT deployments in ISP networks. The project also investigates potential performance impairments and application breakage that may occur due to CGNs. The resulting data and analysis provides much needed insights to network operators, governments, and Internet policy makers about the future of the global Internet. Results of this project will be disseminated via publications at conferences and journals. All data and tools resulting from this project will be released to the research and operational community, and accessible educational materials will be provided in the form of slidesets, animations and videos.