Learning Failure Propagation Patterns in Interdependent Network From Observed Post-Disaster Disruptions

从观察到的灾后中断中学习相互依赖网络中的故障传播模式

• 批准号: 1536340
• 负责人: Cynthia Chen
• 金额: $ 28.2万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1536340&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Learning; Failure; Propagation; Patterns; Interdependent

This project is to develop models and tools to uncover the failure cascading process, or how failures of an initial, small set of nodes propagate through interdependent networks as it happened in the real world. Recent disasters such as blackouts in the United States and Canada and the 2012 Hurricane Sandy have repeatedly shown the effects on society resulting from cascading failures between interdependent critical infrastructures. This research addresses a fundamental challenge in building toward our next-generation resilient critical infrastructures: what kinds of interdependencies within and across systems will facilitate or mitigate a potential failure cascading process. This project will also provide a critical opportunity to develop a methodological class that combines knowledge from multiple fields. The modules developed in the course will be widely disseminated through the project website. Outreach activities will focus on under-represented minority students, as well as an advisory team comprising practitioners in disaster/emergency response. This project will utilize novel geostatistical and statistical approaches that will allow the PIs to estimate disaster disruptions at a fine spatial scale and identify a sequence of events replicating the failure propagation process using empirical data collected before and after a disaster. It will also use independent datasets, reports and informal qualitative interviews to statistically validate and contextualize the numerical model results. This project builds on a solid intellectual and methodological foundation resulting from our previous studies as well as the most recent developments in advanced statistics, general network science, and infrastructure interdependency. The research has the potential to bring transformative changes across multiple fields.

该项目旨在开发模型和工具来揭示故障级联过程，或揭示在现实世界中发生的初始、少量节点集的故障是如何通过相互依赖的网络传播的。最近的灾难，如美国和加拿大的停电和2012年的飓风桑迪，一再表明相互依存的关键基础设施之间的连锁故障对社会造成的影响。这项研究解决了构建我们的下一代弹性关键基础设施的根本挑战：系统内部和系统之间的哪种相互依赖关系将促进或缓解潜在的故障级联过程。这个项目还将提供一个关键的机会来开发一个结合了多个领域的知识的方法论课程。课程中开发的模块将通过项目网站广泛传播。外联活动将侧重于代表人数不足的少数族裔学生，以及一个由灾害/应急工作人员组成的咨询小组。该项目将利用新的地质统计学和统计学方法，使私人投资机构能够在精细的空间尺度上估计灾害中断，并利用灾害前后收集的经验数据确定复制故障传播过程的一系列事件。它还将使用独立的数据集、报告和非正式的定性访谈，对数字模型的结果进行统计验证和背景分析。这个项目建立在坚实的智力和方法基础上，这是我们以前的研究以及在高级统计、一般网络科学和基础设施相互依存方面的最新发展所产生的。这项研究有可能给多个领域带来变革性的变化。