CRISP Type 2: Resilient Cyber-Enabled Electric Energy and Water Infrastructures: Modeling and Control under Extreme Mega Drought Scenarios

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1541026 (Vittal). Resilient, reliable and efficient critical infrastructures are essential for the prosperity and advancement of modern society. The electric power grid and the water distribution system are among the most critical infrastructures. They are highly automated and interdependent. A range of sensors, communication resources, control and information systems together form the cyber networks that are an integral part of these infrastructures and contribute to their efficient, reliable, and safe operation. This project will (1) build mathematical models capturing the interdependencies between the electric and water systems and simulate their operation in time, (2) develop innovative behavioral models of consumer demand for electricity and water under extreme scenarios, (3) simulate demand under these extreme scenarios and propose control actions to mitigate detrimental impacts, and (4) enable internetworking between the cyber systems of the two infrastructures using middleware gateway deployment and emulate it in simulation to determine the effect of the shared information from sensors on the control actions under the extreme scenarios. With the predicted mega droughts in the southwest, an interdependent model as proposed is expected to significantly benefit electric and water utilities by enhancing their ability to perform scenario analysis coupled with consumer usage data to determine the impacts of severe droughts on each of the infrastructure systems and benefit society at large. Interdependent control of the two systems will help optimize water usage and electricity production to cope with severe environmental conditions. A clear understanding of the factors that impact behavioral responses to water and electricity use under extreme conditions will inform governments, suppliers, and the public about effective methods to address real-world challenges such as mega droughts. Findings of this work, including a test best based on realistic data, will suggest strategies for informing social practices and behavioral changes in conserving electricity and water resources. These capabilities could provide significant benefits to nations across the world and enhance sustainability of scarce natural resources.The project will develop a system dynamics-based mathematical model of two interdependent critical infrastructure systems, namely electric energy and water supply, and identify key interdependencies between the two systems. The overarching goal of the research is to transform interdependent but "independently operated" infrastructure systems of today into resilient infrastructures, through efficient information exchange enabled by inter-networking that can handle forecasted extreme scenarios using innovative behavioral models of consumer demand and sophisticated control. The following research and educational tasks are included. Task 1: Development of a system dynamics based mathematical model of the interdependent infrastructures. (a) Electric infrastructure, (b) Water delivery and treatment infrastructure, (c) Identification of their interdependencies, and (d) Simulation of interdependent systems. Task 2: Extreme Scenario, social/behavioral model based contingency selection and analysis (a) Behavioral model of consumer demand of commodities supplied by infrastructure under extreme scenarios. (b) Risk assessment of interdependent system and contingency selection for extreme scenarios. (c) Analysis of model under extreme scenarios and associated contingencies. Task 3: Analysis and control of interdependent infrastructures (a) Formulation of interdependent control, (b) Implementation and simulation of designed control, (c) Examination of the ability of control to mitigate detrimental effects of extreme scenarios. Task 4: Optimal middleware gateway deployment for inter-networking between infrastructure information systems (a) Middleware development and emulation, (b) Control implementation with middleware-enabled shared information and comparison of control efficacy with the independent information setting in Task 3. Educational outreach integrates research into education and outreach by (i) Interdisciplinary graduate course offering, (ii) Short course and webinars for industry partners, (iii) Self-study modules on interdependent infrastructures and (iv) Web based module development of extreme scenarios and operation of infrastructure systems for K-12 students.