The Madden Julian Oscillation and the Maritime Continent

麦登-朱利安涛动（MJO）是一种发源于热带但影响全球天气的天气扰动。该项目将提高对与MJO有关的天气扰动的理解和预测能力。研究的重点是这些扰动是如何从西向东跨越海洋大陆的。海洋大陆是赤道附近的地区，包括印度尼西亚。该项目将试图了解印度尼西亚岛屿的存在以及这些岛屿上的山脉如何影响天气扰动的运动：是什么原因导致扰动在岛屿上移动或不移动，以及如何更好地预测这种运动。该项目将通过两种方式实现这一点。首先，利用模型进行理想灵敏度实验。例如，岛屿将被完全移除，或者保留山脉。其次，分析世界各地天气预报中心已经进行的天气预报模拟。项目团队将检查与实际情况相比较的预报，例如那些天气扰动向东移动穿过海洋大陆的预报。该项目将增进对MJO的理解。在更实际的层面上，该项目将改善长期天气预报。研究生也将接受培训。该项目的成果将通过公开讲座、博客、专栏等方式向公众传播。

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a weather disturbance that emanates in the tropics but influences weather globally. This project will improve both the understanding and ability to predict the weather disturbances associated with the MJO. The focus is on how the disturbances move from west to east across the Maritime Continent, which is the region along the equator around and including Indonesia. The project will seek to understand how the presence of the Indonesian islands, as well as the mountains on those islands, influence the motion of the weather disturbances: what causes the disturbances either to move across the islands or not do so, and how that motion can be forecast better. The project will do this two ways. First, idealized sensitivity experiments will be performed using models. For example, the islands will be removed entirely, or retained with mountains removed. Second, weather forecast simulations which have already been carried out by weather prediction centers around the world will be analyzed. The project team will examine forecasts that compared well with what occurred, such as those in which the weather disturbances moved eastward across the Maritime Continent.The project will improve understanding of the MJO. On a more practical level, the project will lead to improved long-range weather forecasts. A graduate student will also be trained. The results of this project will be communicated to the public through public lectures, blogs, and op-ed pieces.