Power Sharing, Political Goods Provision & Post-Conflict Stability

本研究旨在更好地了解权力分享安排如何在内战后促进和平。 权力分享制度，即在前交战国之间分配政治、军事、经济和领土权力的规则，是内战解决方案中越来越普遍的特征。学术界认为，权力分享机构通过提供关键的政治商品来确保精英和大众对稳定的承诺：精英和大众的安全，精英的包容性和大众的基本服务。然而，由于缺乏适当的数据来检验这些假设，以前的研究一直无法确定权力分享在内战后促进稳定的确切因果机制。本研究通过收集关于精英和大众对这些机构对政治商品交付的影响的知识和看法的微观层面数据，解决了我们对权力分享理解的这一差距。将在菲律宾棉兰老地区以访谈和调查的形式收集数据，该地区解决内战的努力有时采用权力分享机制。 主要调查员将利用这些数据对权力分享对不同团体致力于和平的影响进行统计分析。从这项研究中获得的信息将有助于决策者了解内战后权力分享安排的设计和实施的最佳做法。技术摘要这项研究旨在更好地了解权力分享安排如何在内战后促进和平。权力分享机构，在前交战国之间分配政治，军事，经济和领土权力的规则，是内战解决方案的一个日益普遍的特征。 这项研究将严格审查权力分享安排通过向公民提供安全和获得基本服务等重要政治利益来促进和平的假设。这将通过侧重菲律宾棉兰老地区来实现，该地区解决内战的努力有时采用权力分享机制。 主要调查员将通过与主要信息提供者进行开放式访谈、与重点群体进行半结构化访谈、对受冲突影响地区的人口进行调查以及进行调查实验，收集微观层面的数据，从而有可能回答两个关键问题。第一，居住在内战后权力分享安排所包括的地区的个人是否比被排除在权力分享之外的可比人口更容易获得政治利益？第二，获得政治物品与个人对冲突后和平进程的支持之间是否存在关联？

General SummaryThis study seeks to better understand how power-sharing arrangements foster peace in the aftermath of civil war. Power-sharing institutions, rules to apportion political, military, economic, and territorial power among former belligerents, are an increasingly prevalent feature of civil war settlements. Academics have posited that power-sharing institutions secure the commitment of elites and the masses to stability by providing key political goods: security for both elites and masses, inclusion for elites, and basic services for the masses. In the absence of data appropriate for testing those hypotheses, however, previous research has been unable to identify the exact causal mechanisms through which power sharing fosters stability after civil war. This study addresses this gap in our understanding of power sharing by collecting micro-level data on elites' and masses' knowledge about and perceptions of the effects that these institutions have on the delivery of political goods. Data collection in the form of interviews and surveys will be conducted in the Mindanao region of the Philippines, where efforts at civil war resolution have at times featured the use of power-sharing mechanisms. The principal investigators will use these data to conduct statistical analyses of the effects that power sharing has on different groups' commitment to the peace. The information obtained from this study will serve to inform policymakers about the best practices for the design and implementation of power-sharing arrangements in the aftermath of civil war.Technical SummaryThis study seeks to better understand how power-sharing arrangements may foster peace in the aftermath of civil war. Powers sharing institutions, rules to apportion political, military, economic, and territorial power among former belligerents, are an increasingly prevalent feature of civil war settlements. This research will critically examine the hypothesis that power-sharing arrangements promote peace by providing citizens with important political goods such as security and access to basic services. This will be accomplished by focusing on the Mindanao region of the Philippines, where efforts at civil war resolution have at times featured the use of power-sharing mechanisms. Conducting open-ended interviews with key informants, semi-structured interviews with focus groups, surveys of the population in conflict-affected areas, and survey experiments, the principal investigators will gather micro-level data that make it possible to answer two key questions. First, do individuals residing in regions included in a post-civil war power-sharing arrangement have greater access to political goods relative to comparable populations excluded from power sharing? Second, is there a correlation between access to political goods and an individual's support for the post-conflict peace process?