Phenological sensitivity to climate across space and time: harnessing the diversity of digital herbarium data to generate and to test novel predictions

跨空间和时间对气候的物候敏感性：利用数字植物标本馆数据的多样性来生成和测试新的预测

• 批准号: 1556768
• 负责人: Susan Mazer
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Barbara
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-06-15 至 2020-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1556768&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Phenological; sensitivity; climate; across; space

It is well known that plants alter their flowering times in response to local climatic conditions, but the factors influencing the magnitude and direction of their responses are not well understood. Moreover, not all species change their seasonal flowering time in response to the same climate factors. Consequently, as climate changes, some species may flower too early, resulting in exposure to winter frosts, while others may flower too late or fail to shift their flowering enough to reproduce successfully. This project will improve our understanding of how the timing of flowering by individual species and groups of plant species shift in response to future climatic conditions. This research is essential for forecasting the future availability of floral resources for pollinators and other animals that feed on nectar and pollen, as well as for assessing plant risk of exposure to frost damage, herbivore activity, and other seasonal stresses (e.g., summer drought). To date, however, no comprehensive, continental study of the direction and magnitude of changes in flowering time in response to changes in climate has been conducted. This project will create a single, large database and make all data available online to the public. In addition, this project will provide research training to undergraduate and graduate students.Preliminary evidence suggests that the magnitude of phenological responsiveness (or sensitivity) to climate changes may be conserved among closely related and functionally similar taxa. Consequently, it may be possible to predict the phenology of species that have not been studied through examination of closely related taxa that are well-documented. Hundreds of thousands of electronic records archived in educational and research institutions throughout the United States provide standardized information about plant specimens collected by botanists across the U.S. over the past 200 years, including the date and location where each specimen was collected and whether it was flowering on the date of collection. This research integrates these disparate records into a single database, and leverages them to evaluate the factors influencing historical and contemporary flowering times across 1000 well-sampled species. In turn, this information will be used to forecast shifts in seasonal flowering under projected climate scenarios. Digital herbarium records and recorded in situ observations will be used to evaluate the factors influencing historical and contemporary flowering times across an unprecedented diversity of angiosperms (1000 species, each represented by 100 specimens; 400 genera; 80 families). Predictive models will be generated to enable researchers to forecast phenological changes of individual species given specific climatic conditions.

众所周知，植物会根据当地的气候条件改变其开花时间，但影响其响应的幅度和方向的因素并不清楚。 此外，并非所有物种都会根据相同的气候因素改变其季节性开花时间。 因此，随着气候变化，一些物种可能过早开花，导致冬季霜冻，而另一些物种可能开花太晚或未能改变其开花足以成功繁殖。该项目将提高我们对单个物种和植物物种群体开花时间如何响应未来气候条件的理解。 这项研究对于预测传粉者和其他以花蜜和花粉为食的动物未来可获得的花卉资源，以及评估植物暴露于霜冻损害，食草动物活动和其他季节性压力（例如，夏季干旱）。然而，到目前为止，还没有全面的，大陆研究的方向和规模的变化，在开花时间的变化，以应对气候的变化已经进行。 该项目将建立一个单一的大型数据库，并向公众提供所有在线数据。 此外，本项目还将为本科生和研究生提供研究培训。初步证据表明，在密切相关和功能相似的类群中，物候对气候变化的反应（或敏感性）程度可能是保守的。 因此，它可能是可能的预测物候的物种还没有研究通过检查密切相关的分类群，有据可查。 美国各地的教育和研究机构存档的数十万份电子记录提供了过去200年来美国各地植物学家收集的植物标本的标准化信息，包括每个标本的收集日期和地点以及收集日期是否开花。这项研究将这些不同的记录整合到一个数据库中，并利用它们来评估影响1000个样本物种的历史和当代开花时间的因素。 反过来，这些信息将用于预测预测气候情景下季节性开花的变化。数字植物标本记录和记录的原位观察将被用来评估影响历史和当代开花时间的因素在前所未有的被子植物多样性（1000种，每种代表100个标本; 400属; 80科）。 将建立预测模型，使研究人员能够预测特定气候条件下个别物种的物候变化。