LTREB Renewal: Evolutionary Dynamics in a Rapidly Changing Environment

这项研究的目的是了解自然选择是如何随着时间的推移而变化的，因为一个物种经历了快速变化的环境。这项研究建立在科罗拉多州落基山生物实验室广泛的长期(自1962年以来)黄腹旱獭的单独标记数据集的基础上。该项目将测量土拨鼠个体的关键生理和行为特征的变化，并确定它们对这种模式生物繁殖和生存的影响。这项工作很重要，因为它将提供新的数据和见解，以更好地理解进化反应对环境变化的限制。这项工作将继续长期记录居住在不同海拔地区的土拨鼠种群的适合度变化(即繁殖成功和存活)，并将其与这些哺乳动物的体重、攻击性和优势行为等特征联系起来。这些数据的继续为了解气候变化对冬眠哺乳动物的影响提供了一个宝贵的窗口，也提供了一个可以用来探索种群和进化动态的无价数据集。该项目的更广泛影响将包括：从代表性不足的群体中招聘和培训研究生和本科生；通过科学和流行文章和讲座向科学受众和普通公众广泛传播研究成果，并与科学记者合作；以及维护一个博客和网站，提供旱獭生物学和生态学的公共信息。该项目将评估落基山生物实验室低海拔和高海拔地区旱獭种群环境、选择压力和性状变异的变化。这项工作将扩展早期对身体质量特征的分析，如出现时的质量、质量增加率和冬眠前的质量。对选择和性状分布变化的分析将基于过去40年和未来2-3年。PI将利用12-15年的数据重点分析行为和内分泌特征，并使用路径分析来检验因果关系，并使用多元动物模型将特征变异分解为环境和遗传成分。通过量化对性状的选择如何随时间变化，繁殖成功和存活的变化如何影响性状，以及这些性状的变化如何影响生殖和存活，这项研究将整合最接近和最终的机制，并使用新的方法来研究因果推理。

The purpose of this study is to understand how natural selection changes over time for a species experiencing a rapidly changing environment. This research builds on an extensive long-term (since 1962) data set of individually marked yellow-bellied marmots at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado. The project will measure changes in key physiological and behavioral traits of individual marmots, and determine their influence on reproduction and survival in this model organism. This work is important because it will provide new data and insights to better understand the limits of evolutionary responses to environmental change. The work will continue a long term record of changes in fitness (i.e., reproductive success and survival) for populations of the marmot inhabiting different elevations, and linking this to traits like body mass, aggression, and dominance behavior in these mammals. Continuation of this data provides a valuable window on the effects of climate change on a hibernating mammal, and a priceless data set that can be used to explore both population and evolutionary dynamics. Broader impacts of this project will include: recruitment and training of graduate and undergraduate students from under-represented groups; wide dissemination of research results to scientific audiences and the general public via scientific and popular articles and talks, and working with science journalists; and maintenance of a blog and website to provide public information on marmot biology and ecology. This project will evaluate changes in the environment, in selection pressure, and in trait variance of marmot populations at both low and high elevation sites at Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory. The work will expand earlier analyses on body mass traits such as mass at emergence, rate of mass gain, and mass before hibernation. Analyses of changes in selection and in trait distributions will be based on the past 40 years and the next 2-3 years. The PI will focus analyses on behavioral and endocrine traits using 12-15 years of data, and use a combination of path analysis to test for causality and the multivariate animal model to decompose trait variance into its environmental and genetic components. By quantifying how selection on traits changes over time, how changes in reproductive success and survival affects traits, and how changes in these traits affect reproduction and survival, this research will integrate proximate and ultimate mechanisms and use novel approaches to study causal inference.