Collaborative Research: Political Connections and Firm Behavior

本项目研究政治关系对企业行为的影响。理论和先前的研究都表明，在这种环境中，政治关系带来了更大的利润，但这种关系在多大程度上具有真实的影响（而不仅仅是分配影响）是一个悬而未决的问题。为了探讨这个问题，该项目利用了一个公司层面的面板数据集，该数据集跨越了两个时期，这些时期对政治关系产生了深刻的、在很大程度上出乎意料的破坏（2004年的橙子革命和2013年和2014年的亲欧盟示威革命）。当代乌克兰是利益的案例。乌克兰提供了一个政治机构薄弱和寡头控制经济的环境。本研究的结果将提供证据的渠道，通过政治联系影响企业，并将揭示真实的，而不是货币，这些connections.Technical总结的后果这个项目探讨了企业的行为和生产力的政治联系的影响，以实证的重点放在当代乌克兰。该研究使用了一个企业层面的面板数据集，其中包含许多不寻常的变量（不仅是盈利能力，还包括生产率，就业，工资，投资，R D和IT投资以及能源投入），并补充了有关寡头所有权的新数据。这些数据跨越了两个对政治联系造成深刻且在很大程度上出乎意料的破坏的时期--2004年的橙子革命和2013-14年的亲欧盟示威革命。通过使用为这项工作开发的新方法并利用自然实验，分析不仅将研究这些冲击对关联企业的直接影响，还将研究溢出效应对竞争对手（可能反馈到政治结果）以及行业动态和生产率的间接影响。本研究的结果将提供证据的渠道，通过政治关系影响企业和阐明这些连接的后果。

GENERAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior. Both theory and previous research suggest that political connections confer greater profitability in such environments, but the extent to which such connections have real (as opposed to merely distributional) effects is an open question. To explore this question, the project utilizes a firm-level panel dataset that spans two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections (the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013 and 2014. Contemporary Ukraine is the case of interest. Ukraine provides an environment in which there are weak political institutions and substantial oligarchic control of the economy. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and will shed light on the real, as opposed to monetary, consequences of these connections.TECHNICAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior and productivity, with an empirical focus on contemporary Ukraine. The research utilizes a firm-level panel dataset with many unusual variables (not just profitability, but also productivity, employment, wages, investment, R&D and IT investment, and energy inputs), supplemented with new data on oligarchic ownership. The data span two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013-14. Using new methods developed for this work and leveraging a natural experiment, the analysis will examine not only the direct effect of these shocks on connected firms, but also the indirect effects of spillovers on competitors (which may feed back to political outcomes) and on industry dynamics and productivity. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and shed light on the consequences of these connections.