Collaborative Research: Political Connections and Firm Behavior

本项目研究政治关系对企业行为的影响。理论和先前的研究都表明，在这样的环境中，政治关系赋予了更大的盈利能力，但这种关系在多大程度上具有真正的（而不仅仅是分配的）影响是一个悬而未决的问题。为了探讨这个问题，该项目利用了一个公司层面的面板数据集，该数据集跨越了两个深刻且在很大程度上出乎意料的政治关系中断时期（2004年的橙色革命和2013年和2014年的亲欧盟革命）。当代乌克兰是一个有趣的例子。乌克兰提供了一个政治机构薄弱、寡头控制经济的环境。这项研究的结果将为政治关系影响公司的渠道提供证据，并将揭示这些关系的实际后果，而不是货币后果。本项目考察了政治关系对企业行为和生产力的影响，以当代乌克兰为实证重点。该研究利用了一个企业层面的面板数据集，其中包含许多不寻常的变量（不仅包括盈利能力，还包括生产率、就业、工资、投资、研发和IT投资以及能源投入），并补充了有关寡头所有权的新数据。这些数据跨越了两个对政治关系产生深远影响且在很大程度上出乎意料的中断时期：2004年的橙色革命（Orange Revolution）和2013-14年的亲欧盟革命（Euromaidan Revolution）。利用为这项工作开发的新方法并利用自然实验，分析不仅将检查这些冲击对关联企业的直接影响，还将检查溢出效应对竞争对手（可能反馈到政治结果）以及行业动态和生产率的间接影响。本研究的结果将为政治关系影响公司的渠道提供证据，并阐明这些关系的后果。

GENERAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior. Both theory and previous research suggest that political connections confer greater profitability in such environments, but the extent to which such connections have real (as opposed to merely distributional) effects is an open question. To explore this question, the project utilizes a firm-level panel dataset that spans two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections (the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013 and 2014. Contemporary Ukraine is the case of interest. Ukraine provides an environment in which there are weak political institutions and substantial oligarchic control of the economy. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and will shed light on the real, as opposed to monetary, consequences of these connections.TECHNICAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior and productivity, with an empirical focus on contemporary Ukraine. The research utilizes a firm-level panel dataset with many unusual variables (not just profitability, but also productivity, employment, wages, investment, R&D and IT investment, and energy inputs), supplemented with new data on oligarchic ownership. The data span two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013-14. Using new methods developed for this work and leveraging a natural experiment, the analysis will examine not only the direct effect of these shocks on connected firms, but also the indirect effects of spillovers on competitors (which may feed back to political outcomes) and on industry dynamics and productivity. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and shed light on the consequences of these connections.