Collaborative Research: Political Connections and Firm Behavior

这个项目考察了政治关系对企业行为的影响。理论和以前的研究都表明，在这种环境下，政治关系可以带来更大的盈利能力，但这种关系在多大程度上具有真正的(而不仅仅是分配的)影响是一个悬而未决的问题。为了探讨这个问题，该项目使用了一个公司级别的小组数据集，该数据集跨越了两个政治联系受到严重且基本上意想不到的破坏的时期(2004年的橙色革命和2013年和2014年的欧洲独立女神像革命)。当代乌克兰是一个令人感兴趣的例子。乌克兰提供了一种环境，在这种环境中，政治机构薄弱，经济受到实质上的寡头控制。这项研究的结果将提供关于政治联系影响企业的渠道的证据，并将阐明这些联系的真正后果，而不是货币后果。技术总结本项目考察政治联系对企业行为和生产率的影响，重点是当代乌克兰。这项研究利用了一个包含许多不寻常变量(不仅是盈利能力，还包括生产率、就业、工资、投资、研发和IT投资以及能源投入)的公司级别的面板数据集，并辅之以有关寡头所有权的新数据。这些数据跨越了两个政治联系受到严重、基本上意想不到的破坏的时期，2004年的橙色革命和2013-14年的欧洲独立广场革命。使用为这项工作开发的新方法并利用自然实验，分析不仅将检查这些冲击对相关公司的直接影响，还将检查溢出对竞争对手(可能会反馈到政治结果)以及对行业动态和生产率的间接影响。这项研究的结果将为政治联系影响企业的渠道提供证据，并阐明这些联系的后果。

GENERAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior. Both theory and previous research suggest that political connections confer greater profitability in such environments, but the extent to which such connections have real (as opposed to merely distributional) effects is an open question. To explore this question, the project utilizes a firm-level panel dataset that spans two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections (the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013 and 2014. Contemporary Ukraine is the case of interest. Ukraine provides an environment in which there are weak political institutions and substantial oligarchic control of the economy. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and will shed light on the real, as opposed to monetary, consequences of these connections.TECHNICAL SUMMARYThis project examines the effect of political connections on firm behavior and productivity, with an empirical focus on contemporary Ukraine. The research utilizes a firm-level panel dataset with many unusual variables (not just profitability, but also productivity, employment, wages, investment, R&D and IT investment, and energy inputs), supplemented with new data on oligarchic ownership. The data span two periods of profound and largely unanticipated disruptions to political connections the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Euromaidan Revolution in 2013-14. Using new methods developed for this work and leveraging a natural experiment, the analysis will examine not only the direct effect of these shocks on connected firms, but also the indirect effects of spillovers on competitors (which may feed back to political outcomes) and on industry dynamics and productivity. The results of this study will provide evidence on the channels through which political connections affect firms and shed light on the consequences of these connections.