RAPID: Observing the Disintegration of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf

该合同支持一项快速反应研究（Rapid）项目，以观察Scar入口冰架目前的削弱状态，并可能在其预期解体期间捕获数据。Scar Inlet冰架（SIIS）是2002年3月解体的前Larsen B冰架的南部残余。自那以来，SIIS已明显削弱，但尚未解体。与2006年之前相比，近年来较冷的气候条件降低了冰原解体的可能性，尽管一个温暖的季节可能足以引发这种事件。预计今年夏季将出现的“超级厄尔尼诺”现象可能会对南极洲的天气产生重大影响，可能导致南极洲今年解体或解体。鉴于SIIS非常脆弱的状态，我们现在迫切需要采取行动，更好地了解冰架解体或冰架破裂所涉及的过程。这项工作的目标是收集几个关键数据集，发表初步观察和初步结论，然后将完整的数据记录提供给所有科学家。SIIS上应力条件的极端变化是由Larsen B冰板的损失和三个大冰川（Flask， Leppard和Starbuck）的持续流入造成的。SIIS现在有许多大的裂痕，预计它将在不久的将来破裂或瓦解。过去的研究利用了卫星数据和气象仪器，建立了许多目前关于冰架破裂和冰架减弱的观点。本研究还将收集更多的地面数据，以测试一些关于预崩解特征、触发机制、压裂过程、失控反馈效应和稳定机制的假设。该项目将广泛收集SIIS的多仪器现场观测资料，并可能捕捉到一个重大解体事件。在与英国南极调查局的合作下，一个由4人组成的小组将通过双水獭号被部署到一个可以看到冰架的地点，为期4周，并将在那里安装一些临时观测仪器。这项研究的智力价值来自于南极半岛的作用，它是南极洲其他地区在未来几个世纪如何演变和冰川消融的一个缩影。更广泛的影响包括有机会教育公众关于这个残余冰架的预期崩塌及其与南极洲未来变化的关系。媒体的广泛报道（通过与《国家地理》的联系）将强调科学家们正在观察到的由气候变化驱动的冰冻圈的重大变化。这项建议需要在南极洲进行实地工作。

Pettit/1565576This award supports a Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project to observe the current weakened state of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf, and potentially capture data during its anticipated disintegration. The Scar Inlet Ice Shelf (SIIS) is the southern remnant of the former Larsen B Ice Shelf, which disintegrated in March of 2002. Since then, the SIIS has weakened significantly but has not yet broken up. Cooler conditions than those seen prior to 2006 have reduced the chance of a disintegration in recent years, although a single warm season is likely to be enough to trigger such an event. The predicted "Super El Nino" for this austral summer may have significant effects on Antarctica's weather, potentially leading to a break-up or disintegration this year. Given the very weak state of the SIIS, it is urgent that we act now to better understand the processes involved in shelf disintegration or break-up of ice shelves. The goal of this work is to collect several key data sets, publish initial observations and preliminary conclusions, and then make the complete data record available to all scientists.Extreme changes in the stress conditions on the SIIS resulted from both the loss of the Larsen B ice plate and the continued inflow of ice from three large glaciers (Flask, Leppard, and Starbuck). The SIIS now has a number of large rifts and it is expected to break up or disintegrate in the very near future. Past research has made use of satellite data and weather instruments, establishing many of the current ideas regarding ice shelf break-ups and ice shelf weakening. Additional ground-based data to be collected under this study will test a number of hypotheses regarding pre-disintegration characteristics, triggering mechanisms, fracturing processes, runaway feedback effects, and stabilizing mechanisms. The project will collect extensive multi-instrument field observations of the SIIS and possibly capture a major disintegration event. In collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey, a team of 4 people will be deployed via Twin Otter for up to 4 weeks to a site with a broad view of the shelf and will install several temporary observing instruments there. The study derives its intellectual merit from the role of the Antarctic Peninsula as a microcosm of how other parts of Antarctica might evolve and de-glaciate in the next few centuries. The broader impacts include an opportunity to educate the public about the anticipated collapse of this remnant ice shelf and its relationship to future changes in Antarctica. The potential for wide media coverage (through a connection with the National Geographic) will underscore the critical changes scientists are observing in the crysophere driven by climate change. This proposal requires field work in Antarctica.