RAPID: Observing the Disintegration of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf

Pettit/1565576该奖项支持快速响应研究（RAPID）项目，以观察斯卡湾冰架当前的弱化状态，并可能在其预期解体期间捕获数据。斯卡湾冰架 (SIIS) 是前拉森 B 冰架的南部残余物，该冰架于 2002 年 3 月解体。此后，SIIS 显着减弱，但尚未解体。近年来，比 2006 年之前更凉爽的气候降低了崩解的可能性，尽管一个温暖的季节可能足以引发此类事件。预计今年夏季的“超级厄尔尼诺”可能会对南极洲的天气产生重大影响，可能导致今年南极洲的分裂或解体。 鉴于 SIIS 的状态非常薄弱，我们迫切需要立即采取行动，以更好地了解冰架崩解或破裂所涉及的过程。这项工作的目标是收集几个关键数据集，发表初步观察结果和初步结论，然后将完整的数据记录提供给所有科学家。 SIIS 应力条件的极端变化是由于拉森 B 冰板的消失和三个大型冰川（弗拉斯克冰川、莱帕德冰川和星巴克冰川）冰的持续流入造成的。 SIIS现在存在许多大裂痕，预计在不久的将来会破裂或瓦解。过去的研究利用了卫星数据和气象仪器，建立了许多有关冰架破裂和冰架减弱的当前想法。本研究将收集的其他地面数据将测试有关崩解前特征、触发机制、压裂过程、失控反馈效应和稳定机制的一些假设。该项目将收集对 SIIS 的广泛多仪器现场观测，并可能捕获重大解体事件。与英国南极调查局合作，一个由 4 人组成的团队将通过 Twin Otter 部署到一个可以看到冰架广阔视野的地点，为期长达 4 周，并在那里安装多个临时观测仪器。这项研究的学术价值来自于南极半岛作为南极洲其他地区在未来几个世纪如何演化和消融的缩影的作用。更广泛的影响包括有机会向公众宣传这一残余冰架的预期崩溃及其与南极洲未来变化的关系。广泛媒体报道的潜力（通过与《国家地理》的联系）将强调科学家在气候变化驱动的冰冻圈中观察到的关键变化。 该提案需要在南极洲进行实地工作。

Pettit/1565576This award supports a Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project to observe the current weakened state of the Scar Inlet Ice Shelf, and potentially capture data during its anticipated disintegration. The Scar Inlet Ice Shelf (SIIS) is the southern remnant of the former Larsen B Ice Shelf, which disintegrated in March of 2002. Since then, the SIIS has weakened significantly but has not yet broken up. Cooler conditions than those seen prior to 2006 have reduced the chance of a disintegration in recent years, although a single warm season is likely to be enough to trigger such an event. The predicted "Super El Nino" for this austral summer may have significant effects on Antarctica's weather, potentially leading to a break-up or disintegration this year. Given the very weak state of the SIIS, it is urgent that we act now to better understand the processes involved in shelf disintegration or break-up of ice shelves. The goal of this work is to collect several key data sets, publish initial observations and preliminary conclusions, and then make the complete data record available to all scientists.Extreme changes in the stress conditions on the SIIS resulted from both the loss of the Larsen B ice plate and the continued inflow of ice from three large glaciers (Flask, Leppard, and Starbuck). The SIIS now has a number of large rifts and it is expected to break up or disintegrate in the very near future. Past research has made use of satellite data and weather instruments, establishing many of the current ideas regarding ice shelf break-ups and ice shelf weakening. Additional ground-based data to be collected under this study will test a number of hypotheses regarding pre-disintegration characteristics, triggering mechanisms, fracturing processes, runaway feedback effects, and stabilizing mechanisms. The project will collect extensive multi-instrument field observations of the SIIS and possibly capture a major disintegration event. In collaboration with the British Antarctic Survey, a team of 4 people will be deployed via Twin Otter for up to 4 weeks to a site with a broad view of the shelf and will install several temporary observing instruments there. The study derives its intellectual merit from the role of the Antarctic Peninsula as a microcosm of how other parts of Antarctica might evolve and de-glaciate in the next few centuries. The broader impacts include an opportunity to educate the public about the anticipated collapse of this remnant ice shelf and its relationship to future changes in Antarctica. The potential for wide media coverage (through a connection with the National Geographic) will underscore the critical changes scientists are observing in the crysophere driven by climate change. This proposal requires field work in Antarctica.