Coastal SEES: Enhancing sustainability in coastal communities threatened by harmful algal blooms by advancing and integrating environmental and socio-economic modeling

沿海 SEES：通过推进和整合环境和社会经济模型，增强受有害藻华威胁的沿海社区的可持续性

• 批准号: 1600012
• 负责人: Allison Steiner
• 金额: $ 199.61万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1600012&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Coastal; SEES; Enhancing; sustainability; coastal

The management of coastal ecosystems for long term sustainability requires an enhanced understanding of the interplay among social, biological, and physical systems. Anticipating and managing future changes is a unique challenge requiring accurate representation and integration of climate drivers, biophysical responses, economic impacts, and adaptation decisions, but also the production of model outputs that are usable for decision making. To enhance usability, this project uses collaborations between scientists and stakeholders to foster mutual learning and the production of information that can support real-world decisions towards sustainability. In particular it focuses on advancing understanding of (1) the coupled human-natural system and (2) knowledge co-production, using harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Great Lakes as a test case. As HAB events have been increasing globally over the past decade and directly impact ecosystem services for coastal communities (e.g., drinking water provision, fishing and recreation), understanding, predicting and alleviating this water quality issue is a problem of great societal relevance. The location of the study will be western Lake Erie because of the ability to build upon previous research and existing datasets and the team's previous involvement the region's policy networks. This integrated modeling approach is transferable and the results will be applicable to other coastal areas where stakeholders are attempting to manage complex ecological systems. The results will be communicated widely, leveraging the fact that team members are actively engaged in regional and trans-national policy networks to purposefully disseminate the approach and lessons learned. The project will train a cohort of four graduate students and five postdoctoral fellows in an integrated interdisciplinary context.The work is organized around the overarching question: How does climate influence the biophysical dynamics of freshwater ecosystems and ecosystem services, and how can scientist and stakeholder co-production of information enhance coastal decision-making and sustainability? It will advance the fundamental knowledge of (1) the role of precipitation change and how uncertainty in climate model precipitation affects simulations of phosphorous loading, (2) the role of cold season processes on climate and phosphorous loading, (3) primary climate versus anthropogenic drivers that alter phosphorous loading, (4) the drivers over time and space controlling the size and location of future HABs, (5) how humans and the valuation of ecosystem services respond to HABs, and (6) information usability, by better understanding drivers of use and the kinds of decisions that may emerge from the co-production process. Four stakeholder sectors will be engaged: water treatment, beach management, recreational fishing and agricultural management and policy. Workshops will develop decision-relevant information for and feedback from those responsible for preventing future HABs (considering watershed loading simulations) and those required to adapt to current HABs (considering HAB forecasts).

为实现长期可持续性而对沿海生态系统进行管理，需要加强对社会、生物和物理系统之间相互作用的理解。预测和管理未来的变化是一项独特的挑战，需要准确表示和整合气候驱动因素、生物物理反应、经济影响和适应决策，还需要生成可用于决策的模型输出。为了提高可用性，该项目利用科学家和利益相关者之间的合作，促进相互学习和信息的产生，以支持现实世界的可持续发展决策。特别是，它侧重于促进对（1）人与自然系统的耦合和（2）知识的共同生产的理解，并以五大湖的有害藻华为测试案例。由于有害藻华事件在过去十年中在全球范围内不断增加，并直接影响到沿海社区的生态系统服务（例如，饮用水供应、捕鱼和娱乐），了解、预测和缓解这一水质问题是一个具有重大社会意义的问题。这项研究的地点将是西部的伊利湖，因为有能力建立在以前的研究和现有的数据集和该小组以前参与该地区的政策网络。这种综合建模方法是可转移的，其结果将适用于其他沿海地区的利益相关者试图管理复杂的生态系统。将广泛传播成果，利用小组成员积极参与区域和跨国政策网络的事实，有目的地传播方法和经验教训。该项目将在综合的跨学科背景下培训一批四名研究生和五名博士后研究员，围绕着一个首要问题组织工作：气候如何影响淡水生态系统和生态系统服务的生物物理动态，以及科学家和利益攸关方如何共同编制信息，以加强沿海决策和可持续性？它将增进以下方面的基本知识：（1）降水变化的作用，以及气候模式降水的不确定性如何影响磷负荷的模拟，（2）冷季过程对气候和磷负荷的作用，（3）改变磷负荷的主要气候因素与人为驱动因素，（4）控制未来有害藻华规模和位置的时间和空间驱动因素，（5）人类和生态系统服务的价值如何对有害生物作出反应，以及（6）信息的可用性，通过更好地理解使用的驱动因素和共同生产过程中可能出现的各种决定。四个利益攸关方部门将参与其中：水处理、海滩管理、休闲渔业以及农业管理和政策。讲习班将为那些负责防止今后的有害藻华的人（考虑流域负荷模拟）和那些需要适应目前有害藻华的人（考虑有害藻华预测）提供与决策有关的信息和反馈。