Coastal SEES: Enhancing sustainability in coastal communities threatened by harmful algal blooms by advancing and integrating environmental and socio-economic modeling

沿海生态系统的长期可持续性管理需要加强对社会、生物和物理系统之间相互作用的理解。预测和管理未来的变化是一项独特的挑战，需要准确地表示和整合气候驱动因素、生物物理响应、经济影响和适应决策，还需要产生可用于决策的模式输出。为了提高可用性，该项目利用科学家和利益相关者之间的合作，促进相互学习和信息生产，以支持现实世界的可持续发展决策。它特别侧重于增进对(1)耦合的人-自然系统和(2)知识协同生产的理解，并以五大湖的有害藻华（HABs）为试验案例。由于过去十年来全球范围内的赤潮事件不断增加，并直接影响沿海社区的生态系统服务（例如饮用水供应、渔业和娱乐），了解、预测和缓解这一水质问题是一个具有重大社会意义的问题。研究地点将在伊利湖西部，因为有能力建立在以前的研究和现有数据集的基础上，而且该团队以前参与了该地区的政策网络。这种综合建模方法是可转移的，其结果将适用于利益相关者试图管理复杂生态系统的其他沿海地区。结果将广泛传播，利用小组成员积极参与区域和跨国政策网络的事实，有目的地传播方法和吸取的教训。该项目将在综合跨学科背景下培养4名研究生和5名博士后。这项工作围绕着一个首要问题进行：气候如何影响淡水生态系统和生态系统服务的生物物理动力学，以及科学家和利益相关者如何共同生产信息来增强沿海的决策和可持续性？它将推进以下方面的基础知识：(1)降水变化的作用以及气候模式降水的不确定性如何影响磷负荷的模拟；(2)冷季过程对气候和磷负荷的作用；(3)改变磷负荷的主要气候和人为驱动因素；(4)控制未来赤潮大小和位置的时空驱动因素；(5)人类和生态系统服务价值如何响应赤潮。(6)信息可用性，通过更好地理解使用的驱动因素和可能从合作生产过程中产生的各种决策。将有四个相关部门参与：水处理、海滩管理、休闲捕鱼和农业管理和政策。讲习班将为那些负责预防未来有害藻华（考虑流域负荷模拟）和那些需要适应当前有害藻华（考虑有害藻华预报）的人提供与决策有关的信息和反馈。

The management of coastal ecosystems for long term sustainability requires an enhanced understanding of the interplay among social, biological, and physical systems. Anticipating and managing future changes is a unique challenge requiring accurate representation and integration of climate drivers, biophysical responses, economic impacts, and adaptation decisions, but also the production of model outputs that are usable for decision making. To enhance usability, this project uses collaborations between scientists and stakeholders to foster mutual learning and the production of information that can support real-world decisions towards sustainability. In particular it focuses on advancing understanding of (1) the coupled human-natural system and (2) knowledge co-production, using harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Great Lakes as a test case. As HAB events have been increasing globally over the past decade and directly impact ecosystem services for coastal communities (e.g., drinking water provision, fishing and recreation), understanding, predicting and alleviating this water quality issue is a problem of great societal relevance. The location of the study will be western Lake Erie because of the ability to build upon previous research and existing datasets and the team's previous involvement the region's policy networks. This integrated modeling approach is transferable and the results will be applicable to other coastal areas where stakeholders are attempting to manage complex ecological systems. The results will be communicated widely, leveraging the fact that team members are actively engaged in regional and trans-national policy networks to purposefully disseminate the approach and lessons learned. The project will train a cohort of four graduate students and five postdoctoral fellows in an integrated interdisciplinary context.The work is organized around the overarching question: How does climate influence the biophysical dynamics of freshwater ecosystems and ecosystem services, and how can scientist and stakeholder co-production of information enhance coastal decision-making and sustainability? It will advance the fundamental knowledge of (1) the role of precipitation change and how uncertainty in climate model precipitation affects simulations of phosphorous loading, (2) the role of cold season processes on climate and phosphorous loading, (3) primary climate versus anthropogenic drivers that alter phosphorous loading, (4) the drivers over time and space controlling the size and location of future HABs, (5) how humans and the valuation of ecosystem services respond to HABs, and (6) information usability, by better understanding drivers of use and the kinds of decisions that may emerge from the co-production process. Four stakeholder sectors will be engaged: water treatment, beach management, recreational fishing and agricultural management and policy. Workshops will develop decision-relevant information for and feedback from those responsible for preventing future HABs (considering watershed loading simulations) and those required to adapt to current HABs (considering HAB forecasts).