A functional group and life history approach to predicting plant community response to climate and land-use change

未来生态系统变化的两个主要因素是气候条件的变化和土地利用的影响。对于社区的特定组成部分将在多大程度上单独、特别是结合起来对这些因素作出反应，以及导致社区对这种变化产生内在抵触或脆弱性的机制，人们显然缺乏了解。我们提出了一种非常新颖的方法，通过将物种归类到类似气候类型的组(例如，更常见的在较干/较暖或较湿/较冷的环境中发现的物种)来预测植物对气候变化的反应。与其他技术相比，在研究气候变化对世界各地植物群落的影响的速度和程度方面，这可能被证明是一种简单适用、尤其有力的方法。这种新的气候组方法被我们成功地用于跟踪长期气候和干旱环境下放牧操作实验中群落组成的响应。尽管这些群体看起来很有用，但它们的适用性仍然存在两个明显的疑问：我们不知道1)这些模式背后的机械特征，或者2)它们是否可以适用于不同的栖息地。我们提出了一种多学科的方法来测试这些气候物种组的适当使用。利用统计分析、特征筛选和模拟建模相结合的方法，我们的目标是确定这些群体在植物策略上的共同点，这些共同点可能会在特定的生境中引起更多的抗性或脆弱性。其次，我们的目标是将这一气候小组方法应用到另一项长期气候和放牧研究中，研究对象是暴露在大陆性气候中的截然不同的生境。

Two of the major contributors to future ecosystem change are alterations in the climatic conditions, and land use impacts. There is a distinct lack of understanding as to how much particular components of a community will respond to each of these elements in isolation and particularly in combination, as well as the mechanisms which lead to an inherent resistance or vulnerability of a community to that change. We propose a highly novel approach that predicts plant responses to climate change by categorizing species into groups of similar climatic type (e.g. species more commonly found in drier/warmer or wetter/cooler environments). In comparison to other techniques this could prove to be a simple to apply and particularly strong way for investigating the rate and extent of climate change effects on plant communities around the world. This novel climatic group approach was successfully employed by us to follow the response of community components in long-term climate and grazing manipulation experiments in dry environments. Although these groups appear to be useful, two clear doubts in their applicability remain: We don’t know 1) the mechanistic traits underlying the patterns or 2) that they can be applied to different habitats. We propose a multi-disciplinary approach to testing the appropriate use of these climatic species groups. Using a combination of statistical analyses, trait screening and simulation modeling, we aim to identify commonality in plant strategies among these groups which may give rise to increased resistance or vulnerability in particular habitats. Secondly, we aim to apply this climatic group approach to another long-term climate and grazing study on vastly different habitats exposed to a continental climate.