A functional group and life history approach to predicting plant community response to climate and land-use change

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Two of the major contributors to future ecosystem change are alterations in the climatic conditions, and land use impacts. There is a distinct lack of understanding as to how much particular components of a community will respond to each of these elements in isolation and particularly in combination, as well as the mechanisms which lead to an inherent resistance or vulnerability of a community to that change. We propose a highly novel approach that predicts plant responses to climate change by categorizing species into groups of similar climatic type (e.g. species more commonly found in drier/warmer or wetter/cooler environments). In comparison to other techniques this could prove to be a simple to apply and particularly strong way for investigating the rate and extent of climate change effects on plant communities around the world. This novel climatic group approach was successfully employed by us to follow the response of community components in long-term climate and grazing manipulation experiments in dry environments. Although these groups appear to be useful, two clear doubts in their applicability remain: We don’t know 1) the mechanistic traits underlying the patterns or 2) that they can be applied to different habitats. We propose a multi-disciplinary approach to testing the appropriate use of these climatic species groups. Using a combination of statistical analyses, trait screening and simulation modeling, we aim to identify commonality in plant strategies among these groups which may give rise to increased resistance or vulnerability in particular habitats. Secondly, we aim to apply this climatic group approach to another long-term climate and grazing study on vastly different habitats exposed to a continental climate.