Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Sustainability in Chesapeake Bay shorescapes: climate change, management decisions, and ecological functions

这项研究审查了沿海系统实现可持续性的潜力，在这些系统中，自然资源受到气候变化和人类对气候变化反应的影响。切萨皮克湾海景(包括河岸、潮间带和近岸浅水区的海岸线区域)被用作试验台，因为海平面上升会给海岸线物业所有者和海岸线沼泽带来风险。财产所有者对风险的看法和反应各不相同，他们选择海岸线保护方法(装甲、有生命的海岸线、什么都不做)会对海岸线沼泽继续提供生态系统服务的能力产生影响。对湿地服务的影响，包括支持渔业和改善水质，影响到更大的河口系统，给该系统的许多用户带来后果。这导致了政府官员的监管，他们对所有这些问题都有自己的看法。对海岸线所有者的决策过程、海岸线管理决策的生态后果以及制定或实施自然资源政策的官员的看法进行建模，将发现将人与自然结合起来的系统管理到预期结果的机会和选择。该项目的目标是发现对实现可持续结果影响最大的海岸景观社会生态系统的要素。本研究从海岸线类型的数量、分布和特征的变化方面描述了切萨皮克湾海岸带的轨迹。这些变化的主要驱动力是海平面上升和海岸线业主抗击侵蚀的行动。对海岸线状况、物业所有者特征和物业管理决策的现有信息的分析被用来模拟未来的海岸线管理选择。一系列实地调查比较量化了沿河口海岸和自然沼泽的生物海岸线和自然沼泽的多种生态系统功能(生境提供、初级生产、营养和碳储存)，并预测了在不同管理情景下未来功能的变化。这些信息被汇编在沼泽功能模型中，该模型可以使用来自海岸线管理模型的输入。然后，在海平面上升和管理条件不同的情况下预测未来的结果。对负责政策制定和执行的政府官员的调查记录了业主决定的生态后果的实际反馈。综合这些信息确定了海岸景观社会生态系统的特点，这些系统增强或削弱了它们实现可持续成果的能力。将利用切萨皮克湾滨海地区可持续性综合办法的结果，为沿海管理人员和政策制定者提供正式指导。

This research examines the potential for achieving sustainability in coastal systems where natural resources are impacted by both climate change and human responses to climate change. Chesapeake Bay shorescapes (a shoreline zone which includes riparian, intertidal, and near-shore shallow water areas) are used as a test bed because sea level rise creates risks for shoreline property owners and shoreline marshes. Property owner perception and response to the risk varies and their choice of a shoreline protection approach (armoring, living shoreline, do nothing) has consequences for the capacity of shoreline marshes to continue to provide ecosystem services. Impacts on marsh services that include supporting fisheries and improving water quality affect the larger estuarine system, with consequences for the many users of that system. This leads to regulation by government officials, who have their own perception of all these issues. Modeling the decision-making process of shoreline property owners, the ecological consequences of shoreline management decisions, and the perceptions of officials developing or implementing natural resource policies will discover opportunities and options for managing the combined human and natural system to desired outcomes.The goal of the project is to discover the elements of the shorescape social-ecological system that have the greatest influence on attainment of sustainable outcomes. The research describes the trajectory of Chesapeake Bay shorescapes in terms of changes in amount, distribution, and character of shoreline types. The primary drivers of these changes are rising sea levels and actions of shoreline property owners to combat erosion. An analysis of existing information on shoreline conditions, property owner characteristics and property management decisions is used to model future shoreline management choices. A series of field investigations comparatively quantify multiple ecosystem functions (habitat provision, primary production, nutrient and carbon storage) of living shorelines and natural marshes along a continuum of estuarine shorescape settings and project future shifts in function under varying management scenarios. This information is compiled in a marsh function model that can use input from the shoreline management model. Future outcomes then are forecast under scenarios with alternative sea level rise and management conditions. Surveys of government officials responsible for policy development and implementation document the operative feedbacks from the ecological consequences of property owner decisions. Synthesis of this information identifies the characteristics of shorescape socio-ecological systems that enhance or detract from their ability to achieve sustainable outcomes. Formal guidance for coastal managers and policy makers will be developed using the results of this integrative approach to sustainability in Chesapeake Bay shorescapes.