Coastal SEES Collaborative Research: Changes in Ship-borne Introductions of Invasive Species in Coupled Natural-human Systems: Infrastructure, Global Trade, Climate and Policy

船舶运输世界上90%的货物，并将全球所有港口连接起来。这一网络为美国经济带来了巨大的经济效益，但也可能造成意想不到的负面影响，包括空气污染、水污染和有害入侵物种的引入。成千上万的物种，其中一些成为入侵物种，在船舶的压载水、船体和船舶的其他暴露表面搭便车。外来物种入侵的风险在不同的港口之间是不同的，这取决于访问一个港口的船舶数量和访问船舶以前的停靠港口。该项目分析了全球航运网络，以发现入侵风险高的地方，并确定由于航运网络的持续变化，风险可能会增加的地方。对过去和未来入侵的预测将通过从港口或附近的水样中提取DNA测序来检测潜在入侵物种的存在。新港口的创建和扩建（如液化天然气码头）、巴拿马运河的扩建、压载水做法和政策的变化（如美国环境保护局和美国海岸警卫队的新规则、国际海事组织的拟议协议）以及气候变化（如随着海冰减少而开放北极航道）正在推动航运网络的巨大变化。通过与利益相关者的正式协商过程，有关入侵风险的项目结果将告知港口管理者、船舶运营商和政策制定者，他们可以确定最具成本效益的风险降低机会，以最大限度地提高航运效益。该项目将推进大数据网络科学，改进环境样本的尖端基因测序方法，并通过改善向私营部门、非政府组织和决策者提供的信息，增加航运的净效益。更广泛的影响还包括对本科生、研究生和博士后研究人员的跨学科培训，包括来自波多黎各大学的学生。该项目是美国国家科学基金会海岸科学、工程和教育可持续发展项目的一部分。一个由网络科学、工程学、经济学、淡水和海洋入侵生物学、基因组学和海洋政策专家组成的综合团队将实现五个目标：1)利用网络建模和数据融合的新方法，开发一个非本地物种风险评估和预测系统（NIS-RAPS）；2)利用先进的环境DNA （eDNA）元遗传学方法校准和测试NIS-RAPS对入侵的预测；3)利用NIS- raps模拟未来情景下NIS的传播，在全球范围内探索基础设施、全球贸易、气候和政策的变化如何通过压载水和生物污染影响NIS的传播；4)评估不同政策在未来情景下使用NIS-RAPS减少入侵的有效性；5)使用管理过渡委员会，包括国家和国际政策制定者，选择全球变化和政策方案，并增加将研究成果纳入新的国家和国际实践和政策，以减少压载水和生物污染的入侵。

Ships deliver 90% of the world's goods and link all ports in a global network. That network confers large economic benefits to the U.S. economy, but can also cause unintentional negative side effects including air pollution, water pollution, and the introduction of harmful invasive species. Thousands of species, some of which become invasive, hitchhike in the ballast water of ships and on the hulls and other exposed surfaces of ships. The risk from invasive species differs among ports based on the number of ships visiting a port and the visiting ships' previous ports of call. This project analyzes the global shipping network to discover where the risk of invasion has been high and to identify where the risk may increase as a result of on-going changes in the shipping network. Predictions about past and future invasions will be tested by sequencing DNA extracted from water samples taken in or near ports to detect the presence of potentially invasive species. Large changes in the shipping network are being driven by creation and expansion of new ports (e.g., liquefied natural gas terminals), the expansion of the Panama Canal, changes in ballast water practices and policies (e.g., new rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Coast Guard, proposed agreements from the International Maritime Organization), and changes in climate (e.g., opening of Arctic shipping lanes as sea ice declines). Through a formal consultation process with stakeholders, project results about the risk of invasions will inform port managers, ship operators, and policy-makers who can identify opportunities for the most cost effective reductions in risk in order to maximize the benefits of shipping. This project will advance the science of big data networks, improve cutting-edge genetic sequencing methods for environmental samples, and increase the net benefits of shipping via improved information provided to the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and policy-makers. Broader impacts also include interdisciplinary training for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral researchers, including students from the University of Puerto Rico. This project is supported as part of the National Science Foundation's Coastal Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability program - Coastal SEES.An integrated team of experts in network science, engineering, economics, freshwater and marine invasion biology, genomics, and marine policy will accomplish five goals: 1) develop a Nonindigenous Species Risk Assessment and Prediction System (NIS-RAPS), using novel methods of network modeling and data fusion; 2) calibrate and test NIS-RAPS predictions about invasions using cutting-edge environmental DNA (eDNA) metagenetic methods; 3) use NIS-RAPS to simulate NIS spread under future scenarios, exploring on a global scale how changing infrastructure, global trade, climate, and policy will affect NIS spread via ballast water and biofouling; 4) evaluate the effectiveness of different policies in reducing invasions using NIS-RAPS under future scenarios; and 5) use a Management Transition Board, including national and international policy makers, to choose global change and policy scenarios, and to increase the incorporation of research results into new national and international practices and policies to reduce invasions from ballast water and biofouling.