RAPID: El Niño Southern Oscillation Events, Migration, and Resilience

该奖项支持在面对全球气候变化时促进社会生态恢复力的过程的科学研究。研究人员发现，系统承受冲击和不确定性的能力是系统整体弹性的一种属性，而不仅仅是特定组件在压力下的弹性。社会生态系统的某些方面，如文化世界观，比其他方面，如规则和规范，变化得更快，更抗拒变化，变化得更慢。令人惊讶的是，虽然分配资源的系统通常变化最快，但很少有人知道这实际上是如何发生的，以及这些变化如何在整个系统中发挥作用，最终影响规则、规范和世界观。当世界各地的资源日益受到战争、人口流动和自然灾害的压力时，了解社会生态系统在压力下实现资源重新分配的社会过程对政策制定者、公民以及科学家来说至关重要。因此，人类学家Jerry Jacka博士（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）将回到巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）的高地，在那里他自1998年以来一直在研究恢复力和脆弱性之间的关系。由于厄尔Niño南方涛动（ENSO）事件，高原社会生态系统目前处于紧张状态。enso是由东太平洋海水表面温度的变化引起的，它的发生并不规律，但一旦发生，其影响可能是毁灭性的。巴布亚新几内亚高地的园艺师在强厄尔尼诺Niños期间受到严重影响，因为随之而来的霜冻和干旱摧毁了他们赖以生存的粮食作物。在之前的ENSO天气事件中，高地居民迁移到低海拔地区，在那里他们可以与低地居民一起找到临时住所。然而，经济发展、人口压力以及自然资源管理和获取方式的变化限制了这些传统的应对措施。这为研究人员提供了一个观察新反应产生的过程的机会。数据将通过人种学田野调查收集。来自四个社区（两个迁移社区和两个接收移民的收容社区）的当地资源管理人员将接受采访，以了解与减轻ENSO事件脆弱性相关的决策和实践。研究参与者还将参与风险排名和概念图绘制，以了解El Niños在各种生计背景下的特征和概念化。政府和非政府官员将接受采访，以了解地区和国家层面对气候危机的反应。本研究的发现将阐明促进社会生态弹性的因素，并将推广到其他环境和其他压力。

This award supports scientific research on processes that foster social-ecological resilience in the face of global climatic changes. Researchers have found that the capacity of a system to withstand shocks and uncertainties is a property of a system's overall resilience, not just the resilience of the specific component under stress. Some aspects of a social-ecological system, such as cultural worldviews, are more resistant to change and change more slowly than other aspects, such as rules and norms, which change more quickly. Surprisingly, while systems for allocating resources generally change fastest of all, little is known about how this actually happens and how the changes work their way through the system as a whole to finally affect rules, norms, and worldviews. At a time when resources throughout the world are increasingly under stress from war, population movement, and natural disasters, it is critical for policy makers and citizens, as well as scientists, to understand the social processes through which resource reallocation is achieved when a social-ecological system is under stress. Therefore, anthropologist Dr. Jerry Jacka (University of Colorado, Boulder) will return to the highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG), where he has been investigating the relationships between resilience and vulnerability since 1998. The highland social-ecological system is currently under stress because of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. ENSOs, which are caused by variations in the surface temperature of the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, happen irregularly but when they do, the effects can be devastating. Horticulturalists in highlands PNG are severely impacted during strong El Niños because the accompanying frosts and droughts devastate their subsistence food crops. During previous ENSO weather events, highland people migrated to lower altitude areas, where they could find temporary accommodation with lowland residents. However, economic development, population pressures, and changes in the governance of and access to natural resources are restricting these traditional responses. This affords the researcher an opportunity to observe the processes by which new responses are developed. Data will be gathered through ethnographic fieldwork. Local resource managers from four communities (two migrating communities and two host communities who take the migrants in) will be interviewed to understand the decisions and practices related to mitigating vulnerabilities to ENSO events. Research participants will also engage in rankings of risks and concept mapping to understand how El Niños are characterized and conceptualized in a diversity of livelihood contexts. Government and non-governmental officials will be interviewed to look at regional and state-level responses to the climate crisis. Findings from this research will illuminate the factors that promote social-ecological resilience and will be generalizable to other contexts and other stresses.