EAPSI: A Better Understanding of Shallow, Subduction Zone Earthquakes Through Bayesian Analysis: A Case Study of the 2015 Illapel, Chile Earthquake

EAPSI：通过贝叶斯分析更好地了解浅层俯冲带地震：以 2015 年智利伊拉佩尔地震为例

• 批准号: 1614142
• 负责人: Amy Williamson
• 金额: $ 0.54万
• 依托单位: Williamson Amy
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-06-01 至 2017-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1614142&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAPSI; Better; Understanding; Shallow; Subduction

On September 16, 2015, a Mw 8.3 earthquake ruptured a portion of the Peru-Chile trench. This event appears to have a temporally complex rupture and was well recorded by instruments both in the near-field and at teleseismic distances. The proposed project will apply an adaptive non-linear Bayesian inversion method to solve for the fault rupture of the recent Chilean earthquake, using the preponderance of collected data from both on-land measurements and ocean based tide gauge and tsunami recordings. This approach results in a quantification of the earthquake rupture through an explicit treatment of the data and model resolvability along a source region. The benefit of this type of inversion method compared to other conventional methods is that it gives a higher level of focus to the uncertainties in measurements and their spatial and temporal resolvability. This leads to an inversion result that has improved confidence levels without introducing biases in grid placement or problem regularization. This research will be conducted at the Australian National University School of Earth Sciences under the mentorship of Professor Phil Cummins. The Cummins group is noted for specialized expertise in seismology and tsunami wave propagation from a mathematical and geophysical perspective.On September 16, 2015, a large magnitude earthquake struck of the coast of Central Chile in a region that has been prone to very large and destructive earthquakes over the past decades. An Initial analysis of the spatial and temporal components of the rupture suggests that this event was complex in nature. In conjunction with research scientists at the Australian National University, this project proposes to quantify the slip from the 2015 Chile earthquake through use of a non-linear Bayesian adaptive inversion. This approach gives a higher level of focus on the uncertainties of each measurement used as well as their spatial and temporal resolvability. This results in a better understanding of how the earthquake ruptured while minimizing the amount of analyst led biases, which can greatly alter the model results. Ultimately, the results of this project allows for a better understanding of the seismic hazard of this region of the tectonically active Peru-Chile trench. This award under the East Asia and Pacific Summer Institutes program supports summer research by a U.S. graduate student and is jointly funded by NSF and the Australian Academy of Science.

2015年9月16日，秘鲁-智利海沟发生里氏8.3级地震。这一事件似乎有一个时间复杂的破裂，并在近场和近距离的仪器记录良好。拟议的项目将采用一种自适应非线性贝叶斯反演方法，利用从陆地测量和海洋验潮仪和海啸记录收集的数据的优势，解决最近智利地震的断层破裂问题。这种方法通过明确处理数据和模型可分辨性沿着震源区的地震破裂的量化结果。与其他常规方法相比，这种类型的反演方法的好处是，它对测量中的不确定性及其空间和时间可分辨性给予了更高水平的关注。这导致反演结果提高了置信水平，而不会在网格放置或问题正则化中引入偏差。这项研究将在澳大利亚国立大学地球科学学院进行，由Phil康明斯教授指导。康明斯集团以其在地震学和海啸波传播方面的专业知识而闻名。2015年9月16日，智利中部海岸发生大规模地震，该地区在过去几十年中一直容易发生非常大的破坏性地震。对破裂的空间和时间成分的初步分析表明，该事件的性质是复杂的。该项目与澳大利亚国立大学的研究科学家合作，提出通过使用非线性贝叶斯自适应反演来量化2015年智利地震的滑动。这种方法提供了一个更高层次的重点对每个测量使用的不确定性，以及他们的空间和时间的可分辨性。这导致更好地了解地震如何破裂，同时最大限度地减少分析师导致的偏差，这可能会大大改变模型结果。最终，该项目的结果可以更好地了解秘鲁-智利海沟构造活跃地区的地震危险性。东亚和太平洋夏季研究所计划下的这个奖项支持美国研究生的夏季研究，由NSF和澳大利亚科学院共同资助。